AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 12



AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 12

OFFENSE

The Patriots performance against the Eagles – subpar only for them with an Aikman Game Rating of 93.0 – lowered their yearly mark slightly to 103.7 from 104.7. It still is tremendously far above the previous best (since 1995) mark of 94.4 by the 2004 Indianapolis Colts, a record New England seems destined to own in five weeks.

With their fourth Aikman Game Rating above 95 in the last five games, the Saints are making a move. They have advanced from 21st (73.6) after Week 7 up to 7th this week.

Conversely, the Ravens and Panthers have had the most difficulty on offense in the last four weeks with identical marks of 56.3 to fall out of the top 20.

Aikman Efficiency Ratings Through Week 12, 2007 -- Offense

Aik NFL Team AER

1 1 Patriots (a) 103.7

2 2 Cowboys (n) 91.1

3 4 Colts (a) 88.2

4 12 Steelers (a) 85.6

5 9 Browns (a) 84.9

6 3 Packers (n) 83.6

7 8 Saints (n) 83.1

8 6 Eagles (n) 81.3

9 5 Bengals (a) 80.2

10 17 Jaguars (a) 80.0

11 11 Seahawks (n) 78.4

12 18 Giants (n) 78.4

13 7 Broncos (a) 77.9

14 14 Cardinals (n) 77.2

15 19 Buccaneers (n) 76.9

16 21 Chargers (a) 76.3

17 27 Dolphins (a) 74.7

18 16 Vikings (n) 74.6

19 13 Redskins (n) 73.7

20 10 Texans (a) 73.3

21 15 Lions (n) 72.3

22 22 Raiders (a) 72.0

23 25 Panthers (n) 70.3

24 30 Jets (a) 69.5

25 31 Bills (a) 69.4

26 20 Titans (a) 67.2

27 28 Falcons (n) 66.9

28 23 Bears (n) 65.8

29 26 Rams (n) 64.7

30 24 Ravens (a) 64.7

31 32 49ers (n) 64.3

32 29 Chiefs (a) 63.9

NFL Average 76.3

DEFENSE

Aided by playing the Dolphins in the muck of Heinz Field last week, the Steelers supplanted the Chiefs as the top team in the very tightly bunched AER Defense Ratings. Remember, the difference in ratings points from first to second on offense is 12.6 points.

There are 24 teams within that 12.6-point gap below the Steelers on defense.

Two teams to keep an eye out for are the Colts, who have moved up to 2nd for the first time this year, and the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has operated at a very impressive 98.8 mark in the last four weeks to advance to 5th.

With a differential of 19 places, the Vikings present the defense with the biggest discrepancy between the Aikman Defensive Ratings and the NFL’s yards allowed rankings.

Last week, the Minnesota defense played a huge role in the 41-17 victory over the Giants with three interception returns for touchdowns. Minnesota now leads the NFL with seven touchdowns directly on returns.

The Vikings have been strong performers in Aikman categories all year, even as they allow some yards primarily in the passing game. NFL commentators who only look at the league’s “rankings” will call Minnesota the NFL’s 27th-best defense. The AER Defensive Ratings place them 9th at the moment. We are confident that more accurately reflects how opposing offensive coordinators trying to game plan against them are viewing the Vikings.

Aikman Efficiency Ratings Through Week 12, 2007 -- Defense

Aik NFL Team AER

1 1 Steelers (a) 83.4

2 2 Colts (a) 80.4

3 10 Chiefs (a) 80.2

4 4 Ravens (a) 80.0

5 6 Buccaneers (n) 79.4

6 7 Cowboys (n) 78.3

7 11 Seahawks (n) 78.0

8 27 Vikings (n) 77.8

9 21 Chargers (a) 76.9

10 12 Packers (n) 76.7

11 3 Patriots (a) 76.7

12 23 Jaguars (a) 76.4

13 5 Titans (a) 76.1

14 26 Bears (n) 74.7

15 14 Eagles (n) 74.7

16 8 Giants (n) 74.5

17 17 Falcons (n) 74.3

18 13 Cardinals (n) 73.7

19 29 Lions (n) 73.3

20 19 Texans (a) 72.1

21 18 Panthers (n) 71.8

22 9 Redskins (n) 71.5

23 28 Bengals (a) 71.4

24 22 Saints (n) 71.1

25 20 Raiders (a) 70.7

26 24 49ers (n) 69.2

27 15 Rams (n) 69.1

28 25 Broncos (a) 68.3

29 31 Bills (a) 66.9

30 32 Browns (a) 65.3

31 30 Jets (a) 62.0

32 16 Dolphins (a) 61.5

NFL Average 73.7

COMBINED

With the top offenses operating at such a high level it is no surprise that the four top offenses are also the four top teams in the AER Combined (although in a slightly different order).

Keep an eye on the Seahawks who have quietly slipped up to 6th. They were down at 15 as recently as Week 7.

The AER Combined identifies Philadelphia, New Orleans and Minnesota as the best of the 5-6 teams and perhaps the most likely to make a run for the postseason. Conversely, Detroit and Tennessee are teams with winning records who rank in the bottom half of the AER Combined table.

Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 12, 2007

------- Aikman ------ ------- NFL --------

Rank Record Team Combined Off Def Off Def Combined

1 11-0 New England 180.4 103.7 76.7 1 3 4

2 10-1 Dallas 169.4 91.1 78.3 2 7 9

3 8-3 Pittsburgh 169.0 85.6 83.4 12 1 13

4 9-2 Indianapolis 168.6 88.2 80.4 4 2 6

5 10-1 Green Bay 160.3 83.6 76.7 3 12 15

6 7-4 Seattle 156.4 78.4 78.0 11 11 22

7 8-3 Jacksonville 156.4 80.0 76.4 17 23 40

8 7-4 Tampa Bay 156.3 76.9 79.4 19 6 25

9 5-6 Philadelphia 156.0 81.3 74.7 6 14 20

10 5-6 New Orleans 154.2 83.1 71.1 8 22 30

11 6-5 San Diego 153.2 76.3 76.9 21 21 42

12 7-4 N.Y. Giants 152.9 78.4 74.5 18 8 26

13 5-6 Minnesota 152.4 74.6 77.8 16 27 43

14 4-7 Cincinnati 151.6 80.2 71.4 5 28 33

15 5-6 Arizona 150.9 77.2 73.7 14 13 27

16 7-4 Cleveland 150.2 84.9 65.3 9 32 41

17 5-6 Denver 146.2 77.9 68.3 7 25 32

18 6-5 Detroit 145.6 72.3 73.3 15 29 44

19 5-6 Houston 145.4 73.3 72.1 10 19 29

20 5-6 Washington 145.2 73.7 71.5 13 9 22

21 4-7 Baltimore 144.7 64.7 80.0 24 4 28

22 4-7 Kansas City 144.1 63.9 80.2 29 10 39

23 6-5 Tennessee 143.3 67.2 76.1 20 5 25

24 3-8 Oakland 142.7 72.0 70.7 22 20 42

25 4-7 Carolina 142.1 70.3 71.8 25 18 43

26 3-8 Atlanta 141.2 66.9 74.3 28 17 45

27 5-6 Chicago 140.5 65.8 74.7 23 26 49

28 5-6 Buffalo 136.3 69.4 66.9 31 31 62

29 0-11 Miami 136.2 74.7 61.5 27 16 43

30 2-9 St. Louis 133.8 64.7 69.1 26 15 41

31 3-8 San Francisco 133.5 64.3 69.2 32 24 56

32 2-9 N.Y. Jets 131.5 69.5 62.0 30 30 60

Ratings Courtesy of STATS, LLC

AIKMAN GAME RATINGS

As we’ve said before, the Aikman Ratings do not yet take into account special teams play.

Therefore, it is no surprise as to which game was the only one in Week 12 where the team with the higher Aikman Game Rating (which measures offense and defense) lost.

Yep, it was the Bears’ come-from-behind win over the Broncos where Devin Hester’s two return touchdowns, as well as Chicago’s blocked punt, happened off the Aikman charts.

Still it was the third straight week in which the teams with the higher Aikman Game Rating won all but one game. We contend that the Aikman Ratings measure the factors that produce victory better than who gains the most yards – something the following table confirms for 2007.

| | |AIKMAN | | | |YARDS | |

| |W |L |PCT | |W |L |PCT |

| | | | | | | | |

|Week 10 |13 |1 |92.9% | |11 |3 |78.6% |

|Week 11 |15 |1 |93.8% | |8 |8 |50.0% |

|Week 12 |15 |1 |93.8% | |12 |4 |75.0% |

| | | | | | | | |

|2007 |155 |21 |88.1% |0 |123 |53 |69.9% |

| | | | | | | | |

| | | | | | | | |

Looking at last week’s results you can see that even though Washington outgained Tampa Bay, 412 to 192, yet lost the game, 19-13. As you can see, the Aikman Game Rating took into account the six turnovers that undid the Skins and reflects a higher rating (66.8 to 43.6) for Tampa Bay.

By producing only 13 points and making six turnovers, the Washington offense did not get the job done on Sunday. Yet as the NFL measures it – strictly by yards – they advanced from 16th to 13th.

In terms of the Aikman Offensive Ratings though, they fell from 17th to 19th. We believe that is more reflective of what happened Sunday in Tampa.

Aikman Efficiency Game Ratings For Week 12, 2007 –

Aik NFL Team AER

1 4 Bengals (a) 108.9

2 11 Saints (n) 101.3

3 2 Packers (n) 98.9

4 10 49ers (n) 96.5

5 7 Patriots (a) 93.0

6 5 Jaguars (a) 92.5

7 9 Eagles (n) 92.2

8 14 Chargers (a) 90.9

9 12 Colts (a) 90.9

10 15 Lions (n) 89.5

11 13 Cowboys (n) 87.8

12 17 Raiders (a) 86.7

13 3 Broncos (a) 85.2

14 8 Browns (a) 83.2

15 21 Bills (a) 82.0

16 28 Ravens (a) 79.0

17 16 Texans (a) 77.1

18 1 Cardinals (n) 76.3

19 20 Seahawks (n) 75.8

20 25 Vikings (n) 75.8

21 23 Chiefs (a) 72.9

22 30 Buccaneers (n) 66.8

23 18 Giants (n) 64.0

24 24 Rams (n) 61.0

25 22 Bears (n) 60.3

26 26 Falcons (n) 57.1

27 27 Steelers (a) 55.2

28 32 Dolphins (a) 49.2

29 19 Titans (a) 44.2

30 6 Redskins (n) 43.6

31 29 Panthers (n) 38.7

32 31 Jets (a) 29.7

NFL Average 76.1

Ratings Courtesy of STATS, LLC

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