AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 8



AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 8

As we hit the midway point, the Patriots appear poised to break the previous record of 94.4 for offensive performance in the Aikman Efficiency Ratings. That mark was set by the Colts in 2004 – in the same year that Peyton Manning set the NFL touchdown pass record of 49 that is now being challenged by Tom Brady.

As reminder, the scale was set up so that a “perfect” score of 100 would be achieved only if an offense matched record or near-record performance in seven different key categories.

While such a score can be, indeed often is, achieved over short periods of time such as a single game – I did not contemplate that an offense could be so well-balanced in each category that they could reach or exceed 100 for an entire season. In 12 seasons of AER measurements, 12 offenses have topped the 90 mark in 12 seasons.

However, with each passing week that the Patriots remain above 100, there task of staying above 94.4 for the season becomes easier. A quick look at the ratings, shows that even if they tumble to the solid, but unspectacular, efficiency of the Browns so far this year (86.2) for the remainder of the season, they still would top 94.4.

They’re task to become the first 100-point offense is more daunting. A few FGs in the red zone, a couple of games with scores only in the 20s, a game with four or so turnovers – all could be enough to deny them their run at AER Offensive perfection.

We should also note, that although not as spectacular as the Patriots, the Colts are also operating above the 94.4 record level.

In the seven AER categories, the Patriots rank higher in four – yards per pass play, first downs, offensive points per game and red zone efficiency. The Colts are better in yards per rush, third down conversions and have committed fewer turnovers.

While both teams play very good defense – the Colts are seventh in the current Defensive AERs at 79.8 and the Patriots are eighth at 79.5 – I would expect Sunday’s big game in Indianapolis to be a high-scoring one. These are two offensive units for the ages, even though their head coaches both come from the defensive side of the coaching tree.

Aikman Efficiency Ratings Through Week 8, 2007 -- Offense

Aik NFL Team AER

1 1 Patriots (a) 103.5

2 3 Colts (a) 97.5

3 4 Steelers (a) 90.4

4 2 Cowboys (n) 88.8

5 6 Browns (a) 86.2

6 5 Bengals (a) 81.2

7 13 Giants (n) 81.0

8 19 Chargers (a) 80.6

9 18 Dolphins (a) 79.8

10 7 Broncos (a) 78.7

11 8 Eagles (n) 78.4

12 17 Buccaneers (n) 78.2

13 21 Panthers (n) 77.7

14 11 Cardinals (n) 77.5

15 12 Saints (n) 77.0

16 20 Jaguars (a) 76.0

17 9 Packers (n) 75.7

18 23 Vikings (n) 74.6

19 24 Raiders (a) 73.2

20 16 Seahawks (n) 73.2

21 28 Redskins (n) 71.4

22 22 Titans (a) 71.4

23 14 Lions (n) 71.3

24 30 Jets (a) 70.7

25 10 Texans (a) 69.9

26 15 Ravens (a) 69.9

27 25 Falcons (n) 68.1

28 32 49ers (n) 65.2

29 31 Bills (a) 64.3

30 26 Bears (n) 63.4

31 27 Chiefs (a) 62.8

32 29 Rams (n) 57.6

NFL Average 76.3

Ratings Courtesy of STATS, LLC

With the Ravens idle, the Titans solid defensive effort against Oakland enabled them to remain in first place in the Week 8 AERs for defense.

The Chargers may be 18th in yards allowed (the only stat the NFL uses to rank offenses and defenses), but they have moved to fourth in the Defensive AERs because they rank second in the league in takeaways, fourth in yards allowed per rush and tied for fifth in red zone defense.

Interestingly, eight of the top nine defenses in the current AERs are from the AFC – a conference which has mainly been making headlines with the offenses of the Patriots and Colts.

Aikman Efficiency Ratings Through Week 8, 2007 -- Defense

Aik NFL Team AER

1 5 Titans (a) 86.9

2 2 Ravens (a) 86.3

3 11 Chiefs (a) 84.9

4 18 Chargers (a) 82.6

5 9 Eagles (n) 81.7

6 1 Steelers (a) 81.0

7 4 Colts (a) 79.8

8 3 Patriots (a) 79.5

9 15T Jaguars (a) 79.0

10 27 Vikings (n) 78.7

11 13 Seahawks (n) 77.9

12 6 Cowboys (n) 77.6

13 14 Packers (n) 76.7

14 12 Redskins (n) 76.1

15 26 Bears (n) 75.6

16 21 Panthers (n) 74.6

17 7 Giants (n) 73.6

18 30 Bills (a) 73.2

19 8 Buccaneers (n) 73.1

20 10 Cardinals (n) 72.7

21 28 Lions (n) 72.1

22 15T Raiders (a) 71.0

23 17 Texans (a) 70.5

24 23 Falcons (n) 70.0

25 19 Saints (n) 69.7

26 22 49ers (n) 68.3

27 20 Rams (n) 67.2

28 31 Bengals (a) 65.0

29 32 Browns (a) 62.0

30 25 Broncos (a) 62.0

31 29 Jets (a) 59.9

32 24 Dolphins (a) 55.0

NFL Average 73.7

Ratings Courtesy of STATS, LLC

It’s no surprise that the Patriots and Colts remain 1-2 in the latest Combined AERs. The record for the highest AER in a season (dating back to 1995) is the 1996 Green Bay Packers who went 173.7 in their Super Bowl-winning season. Both New England and Indianapolis are running well ahead of that mark.

Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 8, 2007

------- Aikman ------ ------- NFL --------

Rank Record Team Combined Off Def Off Def Combined

1 8-0 New England 183.0 103.5 79.5 1 3 4

2 7-0 Indianapolis 177.3 97.5 79.8 3 4 7

3 5-2 Pittsburgh 171.4 90.4 81.0 4 1 5

4 6-1 Dallas 166.4 88.8 77.6 2 6 8

5 4-3 San Diego 163.2 80.6 82.6 19 18 37

6 3-4 Philadelphia 160.1 78.4 81.7 8 9 17

7 5-2 Tennessee 158.3 71.4 86.9 22 5 27

8 4-3 Baltimore 156.2 69.9 86.3 15 2 17

9 5-2 Jacksonville 155.0 76.0 79.0 20 15.5 35.5

10 6-2 N.Y. Giants 154.6 81.0 73.6 13 7 20

11 2-5 Minnesota 153.3 74.6 78.7 23 27 50

12 6-1 Green Bay 152.4 75.7 76.7 9 14 23

13 4-3 Carolina 152.3 77.7 74.6 21 21 42

14 4-4 Tampa Bay 151.3 78.2 73.1 17 8 25

15 4-3 Seattle 151.1 73.2 77.9 16 13 29

16 3-4 Arizona 150.2 77.5 72.7 11 10 21

17 4-3 Cleveland 148.2 86.2 62.0 6 32 38

18 4-3 Kansas City 147.7 62.8 84.9 27 11 38

19 4-3 Washington 147.5 71.4 76.1 28 12 40

20 3-4 New Orleans 146.7 77.0 69.7 12 19 31

21 2-5 Cincinnati 146.2 81.2 65.0 5 31 36

22 2-5 Oakland 144.2 73.2 71.0 24 15.5 39.5

23 5-2 Detroit 143.4 71.3 72.1 14 28 42

24 3-4 Denver 140.7 78.7 62.0 7 25 32

25 3-5 Houston 140.4 69.9 70.5 10 17 27

26 3-5 Chicago 139.0 63.4 75.6 26 26 52

27 1-6 Atlanta 138.1 68.1 70.0 25 23 48

28 3-4 Buffalo 137.5 64.3 73.2 31 30 61

29 0-8 Miami 134.8 79.8 55.0 18 24 42

30 2-5 San Francisco 133.5 65.2 68.3 32 22 54

31 1-7 N.Y. Jets 130.6 70.7 59.9 30 29 59

32 0-8 St. Louis 124.8 57.6 67.2 29 20 49

Ratings Courtesy of STATS, LLC

The Patriots and the surprising Browns had the best Aikman Game Ratings for Week 8 – a measurement of how one team’s offense dominated their opponent’s defense.

Conversely, the surprising Lions (by limiting the Bears to just a 36.1 mark) had the best defensive performance.

It was the third straight week the Patriots have been over 110. The 110 mark of excellence has been exceeded 10 times in eight weeks – four times by New England.

Although the Browns came up short of that mark in Week 8, they are the only other team with more than one 110-point game this year. They did it in Week 2 against Cincinnati and in Week 6 against the Dolphins.

Here are the top AER Game Ratings this year – measuring the most dominant offensive performances:

118.8 Cleveland Week 2 vs. Cincinnati (W 51-48)

118.2 Indianapolis Week 4 vs. Denver (W 38-20)

116.2 New England Week 8 vs. Washington (W 52-7)

115.7 Dallas Week 4 vs. St. Louis (W 35-7)

114.9 Philadelphia Week 3 vs. Detroit (W 56-21)

114.6 San Diego Week 5 vs. Denver (W 41-3)

112.5 New England Week 7 vs. Miami (W 49-28)

111.6 New England Week 1 vs. N.Y. Jets (W 38-14)

110.3 New England Week 6 vs. Dallas (W 48-27)

110.2 Cleveland Week 6 vs. Miami (W 41-31)

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The team with the higher Aikman Game Rating has now won 86.3% of the games in the NFL this year (101-16) while the team that gains more yards has won only 67.0% of the time (77-38).

Week 8 was the fourth week this year that was just one game from perfection. Only the Giants in their narrow win in England overcame an AER deficiency to win (they also gained fewer yards).

Aikman Efficiency Game Ratings For Week 8, 2007 --

Aik NFL Team AER

1 1 Patriots (a) 116.2

2 9 Browns (a) 100.6

3 4 Colts (a) 99.3

4 6 Steelers (a) 98.8

5 2 Saints (n) 97.8

6 7T Eagles (n) 87.8

7 5 Rams (n) 86.6

8 3 Packers (n) 83.5

9 25 Jaguars (a) 82.4

10 22 Chargers (a) 78.7

11 17 Vikings (n) 76.4

12 7T Buccaneers (n) 74.8

13 16 49ers (n) 74.0

14 11 Lions (n) 72.7

15 14 Bengals (a) 72.0

16 19T Dolphins (a) 71.6

17 13 Broncos (a) 71.3

18 12 Bills (a) 68.6

19 21 Giants (n) 65.9

20 26 Titans (a) 62.6

21 10 Texans (a) 61.8

22 23 Raiders (a) 61.0

23 15 Panthers (n) 58.1

24 24 Redskins (n) 43.3

25 19T Jets (a) 41.7

26 18 Bears (n) 36.1

NFL Average 76.1

Ratings Courtesy of STATS, LLC

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