The Dhoni Effect: Rise of Small Town India

[Pages:24]The Dhoni Effect:

Rise of Small Town India

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THE DHONI EFFECT: RISE OF SMALL TOWN INDIA

FOREWORD

The Indian market is witnessing some major changes. More consumers, more buying power and more media reach. Then there is the rise of digital media, the fragmentation of mass media, the growing power of young consumers and that of retail. The bigger change, however, is the leveling out of purchasing power across India that brings into focus the markets beyond the metros. We see a whole new opportunity in non- metro urban markets where the rising affluence levels and changing consumption patterns are opening doors for marketers to service new markets. For instance, the unanticipated growth for male skin-whitening creams in India, now a Rs. 300 crore market, growing at an astonishing 150% p.a. has had most of its growth coming from small-town India. Even media consumption habits across these markets have been changing. The past decade has seen developments like de-regulation of the radio sector, increased reach of television with content being produced specifically for various regional audiences and rising focus of print players towards the tier 2 and 3 cities. This has changed the way media is consumed across the country and increased the consumer's exposure to various entertainment options. For instance, English movie channels today have higher viewership in cities of Gujarat than some of the larger metros. Further with improved connectivity, infrastructure and the spread of retail, marketers are looking to capture their share of this growth pie. However, while marketers continue to define the top 15-20 towns as their market, a majority of their investment remains restricted to the metros, though this is gradually changing. This report is an effort to map the trends in marketing spends across the Indian market, given the new address of opportunity and to explore the factors leading to the disparities between marketing focus and spends. We hope that you find this report insightful to explore the opportunities that these emerging markets have in store for all marketers, media players and the industry at large.

Ernst & Young

March 2008

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CONTENTS

Introduction................................................................................................... 4 The Rise of Small Town India....................................................................... 5 Changing Trends in Media Spends.............................................................. 13 In Conclusion............................................................................................... 21

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THE DHONI EFFECT: RISE OF SMALL TOWN INDIA

Introduction

India is one of the fastest growing consumer markets in the world and as more than 300 million consumers spend on cars, mobile phones, food and films amongst others, marketers need to reach, remind, persuade and push them towards their brands. In 2006 Indian marketers spent about Rs 17,356 crores (billings) on advertising, and given around 8 % GDP growth rates, this market can only go up.

With the growth of the Indian economy the rising rich and middle class is spreading beyond the metros to Tier 2, 3 and 4 cities. This has accentuated the growth in markets of the Rest-of-Urban-India (ROUI) from beyond the six metros.

On sheer affluence, towns like Chandigarh, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Lucknow, Indore or Pune are threefourths or more of the affluence levels of Mumbai. On growth potential, they do even better. The fact that small-town urban India is very attractive ? in terms of purchasing power, time spent on media and product consumption, comes across prominently. We like to call this phenomenon, The Dhoni Effect ? where the rapidly growing small towns of India are taking center stage in marketing strategies of India's leading brands. Rising affluence levels, increased awareness due to enhanced media penetration, improved physical connectivity coupled with the high aspiration levels have spurred growth in small-town consumer markets to a level similar to that in metro cities of India. This has led to increase in volume of consumption of higher value brands in traditionally conservative markets.

The growing affluence levels across ROUI is a testament to the rise in potential of this markets. ROUI is now beginning to accelerate the next phase of growth for marketers due to their relatively low penetration levels and a large relevant consumer base.

However, even though the marketers are moving on beyond the metros, media spends are not growing in a similar fashion. For instance, an industry estimate puts spends on the six metros at over 60% of the national spend.

This research report explores the current developments and trends in marketing spend across the Indian market. The report focuses on the drivers and factors impacting marketing decisions regarding media spend vis-?-vis actual ground realities of market growth in India.

For the purpose of this research, India was divided into four sections - the top six metros (Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai and Kolkata), the Key Urban Towns (KUT), which are the twenty two cities for the purpose of the study as mentioned on page 8, the ROUI (urban cities other than KUT) and rural India. During the course of the research we met some of India's largest marketing spenders across categories including FMCG, durables, financial services and media companies amongst others and domain experts such as media planning and buying agencies and advertising agencies besides relying on available published data and in-house media experts.

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The Rise of Small Town India

While the Indian urban growth story till now has been driven largely by metros, it is now moving beyond metros into other towns that comprise the KUT. As of 2001, 33% of India's urban population was located in the top 8 cities (including the 6 metros) which also had 40% of its disposable income1 ; however the concentration of the urban rich and middle class is expected to spread across to the KUT and ROUI. This leveling of purchasing power is leading to marketers' taking cognizance of the emerging potential of KUT and ROUI and paying close attention to making in-roads to new geographies beyond the metros.

Traditionally, focus on Top 10 ? 15 cities has given marketers the major chunk of their business and has also resulted in limited presence in KUT. With rise in purchasing power across the KUT, marketers are carefully spreading out to these markets in search of the next growth opportunities.

For marketers, the decision to enter a new market is dependent on a number of factors which help them select and prioritize markets. As shared by some of the leading Indian marketers, the key factors impacting their decisions for gauging market potential and allocating marketing spends are listed below. Among all these, select factors have been analyzed in detail to understand the impact on market selection.

Exhibit 1? Factors impacting choice of market(s) Factors impacting choice of Markets

?? Market share of the company in the market ?? Revenue share of the company in the market ?? Penetration of the company in the market ?? Share of new acquisitions in the market ?? Lifecycle of the product/ service offering in the market ?? Brand and its fit to market ?? Consumer Profiling: Awareness, Intention to Buy & Ability to Purchase ?? Competition intensity ?? Presence of Decision Makers within the market Source - Interviews with companies across diverse sectors including FMCG, Telecom, Media Distribution, Consumer Electronics, Auto & Banking. July-August 2007

1 Marketing Whitebook, 2007

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THE DHONI EFFECT: RISE OF SMALL TOWN INDIA

1) Consumption growth across KUT

Increasing affluence levels have directly led to increased levels of consumption growth in KUT and rural markets which have been relatively untapped till now. A study of the consumption spends shows that metros constitute about 30% of the total consumption market of hundred cities mapped by Indicus Analytics. This implies that KUT, ROUI and rural India together garner almost 70%. In addition given the larger consumer base of these markets in India, increase in share of relevant consumers would imply higher numbers being added in these markets as compared to metros.

This can be seen in product categories like telecom where subscriber growth in the four metros is growing at a scorching 58% but in the rest of India it is even higher at 93%. The volume growth in subscribers is thus coming from KUT and ROUI where the task is more of consumer acquisitions. In the relatively more mature metro markets the focus is to increase Average Revenues Per User (ARPUs) and therefore margins. Hence the emphasis is on value-added-services such as ringtones, wallpapers or news clippings.

Exhibit 2: Increase in subscribers of mobile telephony across markets.

Markets

Metros Rest of India (excluding Metros)

Mar-02

2,567,757 3,858,057

Mar-03

4,439,524 8,248,113

Mar-04

7,941,766 18,222,639

Mar-05

11,018,998 30,047,117

Mar-06

15,860,318 53,339,395

Source:TRAI Annual Report 2005-06, GSM subscription data

CAGR

57.65% 92.83%

This analysis highlights the fact that rest of India currently is a large, relatively untapped market where investments are required from the marketer to reach out to the consumers. Hence, increased marketing spends would be necessary to ensure increased penetration in these markets. In addition, as the metros and rest of India are at different stages of the product life cycle, the marketing and communication strategy needs for these markets are divergent and would require different approaches from the marketer.

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2) Large relevant consumer base and increasing affluence levels

Access to a large and relevant target group is possibly the most important parameter for any marketer in selection of markets. Markets are selected based on their affluence level as well as size (current and expected in the future), as a judicious mix of both would be critical for any market to be seen as high potential. To better understand the current market potential across top 28 Indian towns, we analyzed each town on the basis of the following factors: ?? Affluence levels: Assessed through a combination of factors such as per capita income, per capita

savings, employment rate, vehicle ownership, internet usage and credit growth ?? Relevant population size: Population with annual income of more than Rs. 3 lakhs ?? Future growth potential: Expected market size growth between 2004-2015 for each city Based on factor weightages all 28 towns were ranked to assess market potential. While expectedly, the metros score highest on the affluence index, KUT are found to be at half or threefourth levels of the affluence of the six metros. While individual KUT towns do not score as high as metros in terms of relevant population, the high scores on future growth potential push up the KUT in the overall ranking. Further, while the absolute numbers of the relevant population base in KUT as a collective market is much higher than that of metros, it is the high concentration of relevant population in metros that has made them more attractive to the marketers. As detailed below, the analysis highlights the high potential for KUT such as Pune and Chandigarh that rank higher than metros like Chennai and Kolkata. This illustrative example of growth potential of KUT towns is what enables marketers to move beyond the metros to focus on KUT.

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THE DHONI EFFECT: RISE OF SMALL TOWN INDIA

Exhibit 3: The Potential of KUT

S.No.

City

Affluence

Relevant

Future Growth

Index

Population Size Potential

1

Delhi

2

Mumbai

3

Bangalore

7.1

10.0

8.66

6.3

6.9

7.60

6.1

1.3

10.00

4

Hyderabad

5

Pune

5.6

2.3

6.91

5.9

1.5

7.17

6

Chandigarh

6.5

0.6

7.42

7

Thiruvananthapuram

5.9

0.1

8.22

8

Chennai

4.8

2.2

6.53

9

Jaipur

10

Bhopal

5.8

0.1

7.59

4.6

0.0

8.17

11

Ahmedabad

12

Lucknow

13

Ludhiana

4.8

1.0

6.90

5.0

0.3

7.17

5.2

0.9

5.38

14

Kolkata

15

Cochin

4.9

2.4

4.10

5.6

0.3

5.25

16

Vijaywada

17

Indore

18

Vizag

4.6

0.1

5.81

4.5

0.1

5.82

5.0

0.1

5.14

19

Patna

20

Nagpur

3.8

0.0

6.03

4.5

0.7

4.72

21

Surat

22

Coimbatore

23

Jamshedpur

4.9

0.5

4.25

4.3

0.6

4.68

5.0

0.0

4.37

24

Amritsar

25

Nashik

4.8

0.5

4.15

4.1

0.2

4.74

26

Vadodara

27

Kanpur

28

Madurai

5.0

0.2

3.38

4.1

0.1

3.41

4.3

0.1

2.75

Source: City Skyline of India 2006 by Indicus Analytics, Ernst&Young Analysis, Census 2001

Ernst & Young Weighted Score

8.5 6.9 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.4

Based on the above analysis, metros account for 30% after total rating of the 28 cities, which implies the growing importance of KUT.

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