Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area ...

[Pages:194]Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2100

Actuarial Study No. 120

by Felicitie C. Bell Michael L. Miller

Social Security Administration

Office of the Chief Actuary August 2005 SSA Pub. No. 11-11536

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Foreword

Actuarial Study No. 120 displays life tables based on historical and projected mortality in the area covered by the United States Social Security program. This projected mortality was used in estimating the future costs for the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program included in the 2005 Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees to Congress. A web address for this and other Actuarial Studies is OACT/NOTES/actstud.html.

The historical calendar year life tables in this study differ from those published by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). NCHS prepares U.S. Decennial Life Tables based on the decennial census of population and deaths for a three year period containing the census year. The series of tables begin with tables for the period 1900-1902. The most recent set of tables is for the period 1989-1991 and is located at the following internet site: nchs/products/pubs/pubd/lftbls/lftbls.htm. In addition, NCHS prepares annual tables that can be found at the following internet site: nchs/fastats/lifeexpc.htm. The tables in this study are better suited to analyze time trends because, unlike the life tables produced by NCHS, they have all be constructed using the same method.

In addition, the U.S. Census Bureau projects calendar year life tables which differ from those in this study. A major reason for this difference is due to the different future mortality decline assumptions.

Alice H. Wade Deputy Chief Actuary August 1, 2005

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Table of Contents

I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 II. Basic Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 III. Construction of Central Death Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

A. Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 B. Adjustments in Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 IV. Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 A. Definitions of Life Table Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 B. Death Rates at Ages 0 ? 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 C. Death Rates at Ages 5 ? 94 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 D. Death Rates at Ages 95 and Older. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 E. Historical Trends and Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 V. Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

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List of Tables

Table 1 -- Age-Adjusted Central Death Rates by Sex, Under Age 65, Age 65 and Over and Calendar Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Table 2 -- Average Annual Percentage Reductions in Central Death Rates During 1981-2001 by Age Group, Sex, and Cause of Death . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Table 3 -- Historical and Assumed Ultimate Average Annual Percentage Reductions in Central Death Rates by Sex, Age Group and Cause of Death . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Table 4a -- Male Age-Adjusted Central Death Rates (per 100,000) by Cause of Death 1979-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Table 4b -- Female Age-Adjusted Central Death Rates (per 100,000) by Cause of Death 1979-2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Table 5 -- Average Annual Percentage Reductions in Age-Adjusted Central Death Rates for Selected Periods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Table 6 -- Period Life Tables for the Social Security Area by Calendar Year and Sex . . . . 26 Table 7 -- Cohort Life Tables for the Social Security Area by Year of Birth and Sex . . . . . 89 Table 8 -- Period Probabilities of Death Within One Year (qx) at Selected Exact

Ages, by Sex and Calendar Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Table 9 -- Cohort Probabilities of Death Within One Year (qx) at Selected Exact

Ages, by Sex and Year of Birth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Table 10 -- Period Life Expectancies at Selected Exact Ages, by Sex and Calendar Year . . 162 Table 11 -- Cohort Life Expectancies at Selected Exact Ages, by Sex and Year of Birth . . . 167 Table 12 -- Ratio of Female to Male Period Values: Life Expectancies ( ) and

Probabilities of Death Within One Year (qx) at Selected Exact Ages . . . . . . . . . 172 Table 13 -- Ratio of Female to Male Cohort Values: Life Expectancies ( ) and

Probabilities of Death Within One Year (qx) at Selected Exact Ages . . . . . . . . . 177 Table 14 -- Age for Selected Survival Rates, by Sex and Calendar Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

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List of Figures

Figure 1-- Age Adjusted Central Death Rates by Sex and Calendar Year. . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 2a--Life Expectancy at age 0 by Sex and Calendar Year

(Based on Period Tables) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 2b--Life Expectancy at age 65 by Sex and Calendar Year

(Based on Period Tables) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 3a--Life Expectancy at age 0 by Sex and Calendar Year

(Based on Cohort Tables) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Figure 3b--Life Expectancy at age 65 by Sex and Calendar Year

(Based on Cohort Tables) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Figure 4a--Median Age at Death (S(x) = .5) by Sex and Calendar Year

(Based on Period Tables) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 4b--Age at which S(x) = 0.00001 by Sex and Calendar Year

(Based on Period Tables) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 5-- Survival Function for SSA Population for Selected Calendar Years

(Based on Period Tables) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

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