August 2010 - Louisiana State University

[Pages:26]August 2010

A Growing Season Gone

110 Days That Shook the Obama Administration

The Political Impact of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

James Lucier, Managing Director james.lucier@

Robert Kaminski, Associate Director robert.kaminski@

% Newshole*!

AprilAA2pprr6iillM- 11M92a--y21258!!! JMJuaunlyJJeyJJuuJ3MMMJuu22nnuaaa1llu8-6Ayyyeeyynl--JuyeaJ1122111Auygu704145792unl---------32yeg-21322-112149360670813158!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

70%! 60%! 50%! 40%! 30%! 20%! 10%!

0%!

Oil Spill Media Coverage!

Newspapers! Online! Network TV! Cable TV! Radio!

Week!

Source: Pew Research Center, Project for Excellence in Journalism

* Percentage of total time (TV, radio), or words (Newspapers, Online) dedicated to coverage of the explosion and spill

? 2010 Capital Alpha Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.

2

BP CDS Contracts and Oil Spill Coverage!

Cable TV News Coverage Index! 800!

1-Year BP CDS (Weekly close)!

5-Year BP CDS (5-day moving avg.)! 70%!

Basis Points! % Newshole*!

700!

60%!

600! 50%!

500! 40%!

400! 30%!

300!

20%! 200!

100!

10%!

0!

0%!

April

12-18!April

19-25! April

26-May

2!

ay M

3-9! May

10-16!May

17-23!May

24-30! May

31-June

6!

June

7-13! June

14-20J! une

21-27! June

28-July

4!

July

5-11! July

12-18!

July

19-25! July

26-Aug

1!

Week!

Sources: Bloomberg; Pew Research Center, Project for Excellence in Journalism

* Percentage of total time (TV, radio), or words (Newspapers, Online) dedicated to coverage of the explosion and spill

? 2010 Capital Alpha Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.

3

BP Share Price and Oil Spill News Coverage!

$70 !

Pew Oil Spill News Coverage Index (all media)!

BP Weekly Closing Share Price!

50%!

$60 ! $50 !

45%! 40%! 35%!

$ Per Share! % Newshole!

$40 ! $30 !

30%! 25%! 20%!

$20 ! $10 !

15%! 10%! 5%!

$- !

0%!

April

12-18!April

19-25! April

26-May

2!

May

3-9! May

10-16!May

17-23!May

24-30! May

31-June

6!

June

7-13! June

14-20J! une

21-27! June

28-July

4!

July

5-11! July

12-18!

July

19-25! July

26-Aug

1!

Aug 2-8!

Week!

Sources: Bloomberg; Pew Research Center, Project for Excellence in Journalism

* Percentage of total time (TV, radio), or words (Newspapers, Online) dedicated to coverage of the explosion and spill

? 2010 Capital Alpha Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.

4

% Newshole*!

50%!

45%!

40%!

35%!

30%!

25%!

20%!

15%! 10%!

May 30 Macondo

blowout

5%!

Oil Spill Timeline and News Coverage!

May 30 Deepwater moratorium

June 17 Hayward

House testimony

May 31-June 4 Memorial Day recess

April 29 Washington takes note

June 30 Bingaman

spill bill passes committee

July 15 Macondo well capped

Waxman spill bill passes

committee

Rahall spill bill passes committee

July 30 House passes Rahall spill bill,

adding Congressional

spill commission

House leaves for August recess

Aug. 4 Static kill complete

Aug. 10 BP

damages fund

secured

July 5-9 Fourth of July Recess

0%!

April 12-18!

April

19-25! April

26-May

2!

ay 3-9! M

May 10-16!

May 17-23!

May

24-30! May

31-June

6!

June 7-13!

June 14-20!

June

21-27! June

28-July

4!

July 5-11!

July 12-18!

July

19-25! July

26-Aug

1!

Aug 2-8!

Week!

Source: Capital Alpha research, Pew Research Center, Project for Excellence in Journalism

* Percentage of total time (TV, radio), or words (Newspapers, Online) dedicated to coverage of the explosion and spill

? 2010 Capital Alpha Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.

5

When You Can't Talk About Something Else

No answer to five basic questions:

- How much oil? - When will it stop? - What will it cost? - Where is landfall? - What exactly happened and why?

? 2010 Capital Alpha Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.

6

The Political Cost of Time Wasted

- Opportunity cost, opportunity lost - An irreplaceable cyclical moment - Impact slight on surface, lasting impact will be deep - Spill hardens, polarizes existing perceptions

? 2010 Capital Alpha Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.

7

A Growing Season Gone

- 110 days from blowout to cement - Trust fund established - Consolidation of docket - 74% of oil dispersed or removed - 40% of fishing areas reopened

...110 days President Obama would rather have talked about something else

? 2010 Capital Alpha Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.

8

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