Study of Future Demande For Radio Spectrum in Canada 2011-2015

Study of Future Demand for Radio Spectrum in Canada 2011-2015

Red Mobile Consulting is a Global Management Consulting firm specializing in the ICT sector. Red Mobile Co. provides market research, strategy, and implementation planning services to the world's foremost ICT Service Providers, Government and Regulatory bodies, and Enterprises. Our areas of specialty include wireless and mobile services for the government, financial, retail and healthcare verticals. Our client base includes the top Fortune 500 firms and leading ICT sector players worldwide. Red Mobile Co. is committed to working with its clients globally, to help them effectively tackle and manage the challenges of an ever-changing business and technology environment. Red Mobile Co.'s innovative methodology takes into account emerging forces of competition, including disruptive technologies and new business models. Please contact Red Mobile Co. for further information.

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Study of Future Demand for Radio Spectrum in Canada 2011-2015

STUDY OF FUTURE DEMAND FOR RADIO SPECTRUM IN CANADA 2011-2015

Disclaimer The information in this document is provided for reference purposes only and is subject to change at any time without notice. Although efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of current spectrum allocations, assignments, services and applications, neither the Authors, nor the Government of Canada warrant the quality, accuracy, or completeness of any information, or data in this document and assume no responsibility for any possible errors or omissions. It is the responsibility of all persons who use this report to independently confirm the accuracy of the data, information, or results obtained through its use. In no event will the Authors, its Directors, Employees, and Agents; the Government of Canada or its employees, servants or agents have any obligation to the user for any reason including claims arising from contract or tort, or for loss of revenue or profit, or for indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising from the use of this information. This report is being posted with the intent that it be readily available for personal and public noncommercial use. Permission must be obtained to use the contents of this report for any other purpose from the Authors. At all times, the Authors must be identified as the source of the reproduction.

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Study of Future Demand for Radio Spectrum in Canada 2011-2015

Table of Contents

1

Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 5

1.1 Executive Summary............................................................................................................... 5

1.2 Background.......................................................................................................................... 12

1.3 Scope of the Study .............................................................................................................. 12

1.4 Predicting Developments in the Demand for Spectrum ...................................................... 13

2

Organization of Report ................................................................................................................... 14

3

Approach to Forecasting the Demand for Spectrum...................................................................... 17

3.1 The Approach Taken for Quantifying Projection of Demand............................................... 17

3.2 Forecasting the Relationship Between the Demand for Both Services and Spectrum ....... 20

4

Alternative Scenarios that May Unfold over the Next Five Years .................................................. 28

4.1 Drivers of Change................................................................................................................ 28

4.2 Defining the Future Scenarios and their Demand for Capacity........................................... 28

5

Assumptions for Forecasting Demand ........................................................................................... 29

6

Key Findings and Spectrum Demand Forecast ............................................................................. 29

6.1 Cellular Services.................................................................................................................. 29

6.2 Fixed Wireless Access ........................................................................................................ 53

6.3 Backhaul Microwave Facilities............................................................................................. 71

6.4 Broadcasting Services......................................................................................................... 85

6.5 Satellite Services ................................................................................................................. 99

6.6 Land-Mobile Service.......................................................................................................... 116

6.7 Public Safety Service......................................................................................................... 127

6.8 Amateur Radio................................................................................................................... 140

6.9 Aeronautical Services........................................................................................................ 144

6.10 Maritime Mobile Service .................................................................................................... 151

6.11 Military Services................................................................................................................. 155

6.12 Radiodetermination Services............................................................................................. 159

6.13 Space Science Services.................................................................................................... 166

6.14 Consumer Devices ............................................................................................................ 173

6.15 Medical Devices................................................................................................................. 178

A. Appendix A: The Stakeholders ................................................................................................. 183 B. Appendix B: Table of Acronyms............................................................................................... 185

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Study of Future Demand for Radio Spectrum in Canada 2011-2015

1 Introduction

This Report provides the outcome of an independent study of the Demand for Spectrum from 52 MHz to 38 GHz, across 15 different service sectors in Canada.

The Study has been conducted by Red Mobile Consulting (Red Mobile), in conjunction with its partner, PA Consulting Group (PA).

1.1 Executive Summary

The objective of this Study was to forecast the future demand for radio spectrum in Canada for commercial and government services, within the frequency range of 52 MHz to 38 GHz.

The Demand forecasts were to be developed for the period of 2010 to 2015. Five of the services were classified by Industry Canada as High-Value Services. The Demand forecast for these High-Value Services has been modelled in detail. In many cases for High-Value Services, it was important to study historic trends in a particular industry, and these historic trends have also been presented where helpful. As such, the baseline of year 2010 is presented, at minimum, for all modelled services. The remaining 10 services (Other Services) have undergone a varying degree of high-level analysis.

When reviewing the results, it is important to consider the objectives of the Study and the Methodology used. Given the time available, breadth of the topics, and vastly different areas of expertise required for the services covered by this Study, the overwhelming majority of the focus has been on High-Value Services. Therefore, while great effort has been made to make reasonable assumptions, develop a good understanding of the spectrum conditions, and vet these against input from stakeholders and sources of secondary research, there will be areas that have not been fully considered.

In order to understand the most fluid services, the Authors have spent close to one year observing and tracking changes and revising spectrum demand models. However, the assumptions about future technology and market developments can change. Also, for some services, users of the spectrum can implement the service in a manner that best suits their individual business, economic or market priorities. While the Study considers the major macro- and sector-level drivers, it does not attempt to delve into any specific user's situation.

As part of the Methodology, close to 50 industry Stakeholders were approached to provide input to the Study. For many services, especially the Other Services, the analysis has been conducted through input provided from industry Stakeholders. Stakeholder input has been considered in conjunction with other research to develop an understanding of that particular sector. It should be noted that, in some cases, the input provided by different stakeholders provides a contradictory or alternative view of the same service. The Report's intent is to present the varying views for the benefit of the reader. In addition, specific challenges for a particularly localized geographic area (i.e. congestion in a city), etc. have not been considered the only, and overarching driver to determine that there is a state of congestion throughout. However, where appropriate and possible, some of these specific challenges have been highlighted.

For the High-Value Services, where applicable, a market analysis has been conducted of the Service Demand. This Service Demand, and associated forecasts, were converted into Demand for Spectrum, taking into account several future factors, including improvements in spectral efficiency, evolution of technologies, etc.

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