AP Environmental Science



Population Growth Lab

Modified from original lab developed by: Clifford J Atkinson

In this experiment, you will use current demographic data from the to determine the relationship the relationship between population growth rate and a variety of social and biological factors. You will calculate and graphically represent the growth in population from a variety of countries representing high and low or negative growth rates and will determine, by graphical analysis, the factors that correlate to growth rates, including infant mortality, education level and economic well being.

Purpose

The purpose of this lab is to introduce students to the relationship between population growth rates and the social, cultural and biological factors that influence these growth rates in specific areas of the modern world.

Objectives

• Calculate a ten year population growth rate and use it to predict future populations in various parts of the world.

• Make generalizations about the population growth rates in the Western world, Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Central and South America.

• Determine the relationships, if any, between population growth rates and the following variables:

▪ Economic well-being

▪ Infant mortality

▪ Education

• Make predictions about the environmental issues that will affect the regions of the world where population growth rates are highest.

Background

It took until 1830 for the human population of the world to reach its first billion. The second billion came only 100 years after that, in 1927, with the third and fourth billion coming 30 and 15 years later. The fifth billion was reached in 1987. In 2008, the world population exceeds 6.6 billion and is expected to grow by nearly 80 million per year. At current rates, experts predict a total world population of over 9 billion people by 2050. This growth is shown in Figure 1 on the next page.

The current population distribution of the world’s people is shown in Table 1, with the predicted distribution in 2050 for comparison. What is interesting about these predictions is that virtually all the population growth in the next 10-20 years will likely take place in the poorest countries in the world, where high populations are already straining economies, social services, and more importantly, the environment.

There are some who would say that overpopulation, and its partner, over-consumption, are the most critical environmental problems of our time. Indeed, nearly all other environmental issues – for instance air and water pollution, global climate change, resources depletion, the biodiversity crisis – are a result of over-consumption activities which stem, in part, from overpopulation.

Figure 1 – Past World Population Growth

[pic]

Table 1 – Countries Ranked by Population

|  |1950 |1970 |1990 |2000 |2010 |2030 |2050 |

|1 |China |China |China |China |China |India |India |

|2 |India |India |India |India |India |China |China |

|3 |United States |Russia |United States |United States |United States |United States |United States |

|4 |Russia |United States |Indonesia |Indonesia |Indonesia |Indonesia |Indonesia |

|5 |Japan |Indonesia |Brazil |Brazil |Brazil |Pakistan |Pakistan |

|6 |Indonesia |Japan |Russia |Russia |Pakistan |Brazil |Bangladesh |

|7 |Germany |Brazil |Japan |Pakistan |Bangladesh |Bangladesh |Ethiopia |

|8 |Brazil |Germany |Pakistan |Bangladesh |Nigeria |Nigeria |Nigeria |

|9 |United Kingdom |Bangladesh |Bangladesh |Japan |Russia |Ethiopia |Brazil |

|10 |Italy |Pakistan |Nigeria |Nigeria |Japan |Philippines |Congo |

As we grow in numbers, we will require more space, more food and more resources. As these numbers, needs and demands grow, so does our impact on the environment. More people use more fossil fuels which create more air pollution and more atmospheric carbon dioxide. More people require food which requires more natural land to be converted into farmland. More people require more fresh water which leads to a depletion of lakes and rivers. This list is endless and the root is always “more people.”

As you can see from the chart above, experts predict that most of the world’s population growth within the next 1-2 decades is expected to occur in Asia, Africa and South America. Rapid population growth in these areas is predicted to lead to increased poverty, hunger, environmental degradation, economic instability, resource depletion, disease and illiteracy. These problems ultimately create a situation of extreme global insecurity.

In this problem set, students will explore some of the social, biological and economic factors that lead to these population growth predictions. Understanding which regions are predicted to have the largest growth rates, as well as the factors leading to these large growth rates, is the first step in devising a strategy to avoid the instability inherent in unchecked population growth.

Materials and Equipment

Computer with Microsoft Word and Excel

Access to the Internet

Procedure

You will choose 2 developed countries and 3 developing countries. Using the ., find the following pieces of information about your countries: Please type on neat/organized data sheet.

1. Country name:

2. Current population:

3. Population growth rate:

4. Infant mortality rate:

5. Total fertility rate (TFR):

6. Total literacy:

7. Female literacy:

8. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) / per capita (ppp):

9. Percent population below poverty line:

10. Current environmental issues (see Geography section):

Part I: Population Investigations

1. You have chosen the names of 5 countries (locations). You will first need to determine the 10 year growth rate for each country/ location. Your job is to calculate, graphically represent and compare population growth for these countries/locations for a period of one hundred years. In addition, you will indicate how many years the population will take to double in size.

2. You will then compare this growth to the other countries/locations and make some conclusions about world population growth. Since each country/location has a different starting population, creating a graph that compares number of people and time for all of the countries/locations will not work well unless the population numbers at the start are similar. For example, the country of India has 1.1 billion people and Ghana has only 23 million. It would be impossible to have a graph that covered this scale. Therefore, you will start with the same number of people and calculate the time to double the population. Since we are only comparing the rates of change, this will be adequate.

3. You are to express this growth in ten-year intervals, as you have already determined the ten year growth rate. You will start with a population of 50 people and calculate the time needed to reach 100 people and show the population growth for a period of 100 years.

4. Table 2 – Population Growth Data for the United States

|Ten Year Period |Starting Population |Rate of Change |New Population |Point to Plot |

|0 |50 | - |50 |(0,50) |

|0-10 |50 |0.08 |54/54 |(10,54) |

|11-20 |54 |0.08 |58.32/59 |(20,59) |

|21-30 |59 |0.08 |63.72/64 |(30,64) |

|31-40 |64 |0.08 |69.12/69 |(40,69) |

|41-50 |69 |0.08 |74.52/75 |(50,75) |

|51-60 |75 |0.08 |81/81 |(60,81) |

|61-70 |81 |0.08 |87.48/87 |(70,87) |

|71-80 |87 |0.08 |93.96/94 |(80,94) |

|81-90 |94 |0.08 |101.52/102 | (90,102) |

|91-100 | 102 |  |  |  |

5. You have been given data for the United States in Table 2. Please plot this data on your graph along with the data from your other 5 countries. Once you complete the graph, you are to answer the questions that follow. You are to copy/paste table 2 and table 3 (5 times) into a single word document. All work for this activity will be typed. (20)

Table 3 – Population Growth Data for

|Ten Year Period |Starting Population |Rate of Change |New Population |Point to Plot |

|0 |50 | - |50 |(0,50) |

|0-10 |50 |  |  |(10, ) |

|11-20 |  |  |  |(20, ) |

|21-30 |  |  |  |(30, ) |

|31-40 |  |  |  |(40, ) |

|41-50 |  |  |  |(50, ) |

|51-60 |  |  |  |(60, ) |

|61-70 |  |  |  |(70, ) |

|71-80 |  |  |  |(80, ) |

|81-90 |  |  |  |(90, ) |

|91-100 |  |  |  |(100, ) |

Part II: Comparing Population Growth for World Regions (All questions must be copy/pasted into word document and all answers typed)

6. Determine which countries in your group had the fastest and the slowest population growth. Generate a list of the fastest growing countries and the slowest growing countries in your group. (2)

| |

7. What generalizations can you make about population growth rates in specific regions of the world? (2)

| |

8. Fill in the following chart each country/location. In order to determine the population in 50 years, use a ratio set up as shown below for the United States based on the data in Table 2. (10)

Show all work on your data sheet.

Current United States Population Starting Calculated United States Population

-------------------------------------------------------------- = -------------------------------------------------------------

Predicted United States Population in 2050 Calculated United States Population in 50 years

323,996,000 50 q

---------------------------------- = ------ = 485,994,000 q

X 75 q

Copy/Paste into data sheet and type answers.

Table 4 – Population Rankings

|Country |Country Name |Current Population |Current |Population in 50 Years |50 Year |

|Population | | |Population Rank | |Population Rank |

|Ranking | | | | | |

|Highest |  |  |1 |  |  |

|  |  |  |2 |  |  |

|  | | | | | |

|  | | | | | |

| |  |  |3 |  |  |

| |  |  |4 |  |  |

|Lowest |  |  |5 |  |  |

8. Based on your data, in what area of the world will the majority of the people live in 2050? (2)

9. How would this differ from the current situation? (2)

10. What challenges does this present to the most heavily populated countries? (2)

Part III: Comparing Population Growth and Education

11. Does the rate at which a population grows depend on the education level of its people? (2)

12. Does the data from the other countries support your conclusions? (2)

Part IV: Comparing Population Growth and Economic Well Being

13. Does the rate at which a population grows depend on the economic well being of the people? (2)

14. Does the infant mortality rate of a country depend on the economic well being of the people? (2)

15. Does the data from the other countries support your conclusions? (2)

Part V: Comparing Population Growth and Infant Mortality Rates

16. Does the rate at which a population grows depend on the infant mortality rate? (2)

17. Does the data from the other countries support your conclusions? (2)

Conclusion

18. Write a short paragraph summarizing the relationships, if any, between population growth, economic well being, education and infant mortality. (4)

19. Are there any specific errors inherent in this method of predicting population growth? (2)

20. What specific environmental concerns would be expected to arise in these countries and how might those countries act now to lessen the environmental impacts? Please go in depth for each country. (15)

Presentation

A short but thorough demographic presentation to the class on 1 developed and 1 developing country. Include the following: map, population figures, general living conditions, access to electricity, potable water, medical care…etc.

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