Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.

August 21, 2019

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Margin Debt

3-5

August 21, 2019 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 1.

700

MARGIN DEBT & WILSHIRE 5000

650

600

550

Margin Debt* (billion dollars)

500 Wilshire 5000 Index

450

400

Margin Debt

J8u/2l 0

34000 32000 30000 28000 26000 24000 22000 20000

350

18000

300

16000

14000 250

12000

200 10000

150

8000

100

6000



50

4000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit Balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

3.0

3.0

MARGIN DEBT*

(as a percent of Wilshire 5000)

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0

Jul

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2



1.0

1.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / August 21, 2019 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Margin Debt

Figure 3.

200

200

MARGIN DEBT*

(yearly change, billion dollars)

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

-50

Jul

-50

-100

-100

-150

-150



-200

-200

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.

100

100

MARGIN DEBT*

(yearly percent change)

50

50

0

0

Jul



-50

-50

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / August 21, 2019 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Margin Debt

Figure 5.

120

120

MARGIN REQUIREMENT FOR CREDIT EXTENDED UNDER REGULATION T/U/G MARGIN STOCKS

(percent of market value)

100

100

80

80

60

60

Jul



40 1938

1943

1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

2018

2023 40

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 6.

800

MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500

750

700

3200

3000 8/21

2800

650

S&P 500 Index

600

550

Margin Debt*

(billion dollars)

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

2600 Jul

2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000

150

800

100

600



50

400

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 5 / August 21, 2019 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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