Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 13, 2022
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Margin Debt
3-6
May 13, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Margin Debt
Figure 1.
960
50
900 MARGIN DEBT & WILSHIRE 5000
840
780 Margin Debt*
720
(billion dollars) (799.7)
Mar
5/12
40
660
600
Wilshire 5000 Market Cap
30
540
(trillions) (39.0)
480
420 20
360
300
240
180
10
120
60
0
0
79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 2.
3.0
3.0
MARGIN DEBT*
(as a percent of Wilshire 5000)
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
Mar
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / May 13, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Margin Debt
Figure 3.
400
400
MARGIN DEBT*
350 (yearly change, billion dollars)
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Mar
-50
-50
-100
-100
-150
-150
-200
-200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 4.
100
100
MARGIN DEBT* (yearly percent change)
50
50
0
Mar
0
-50
-50
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / May 13, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 5.
1000
MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500
Margin Debt
800
Margin Debt*
(billion dollars) (799.7)
S&P 500 Market Cap (33.3)
600
50
Mar
40
5/11 30
400
20
200
10
0
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.
Figure 6.
4
4
MARGIN DEBT (as a percent of S&P 500 market cap)
3
3
Mar
2
2
1
1
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.
Page 5 / May 13, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Margin Debt
Figure 7.
950
3000
MARGIN DEBT & RUSSELL 3000
900
850
800
750
Margin Debt*
(billion dollars)
700
Mar 5/13
650
Russell 3000 Index
2000
600
550
500
450
400
350
1000
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit Balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Wall Street Journal.
Figure 8.
1100
1100
1050 MARGIN DEBT & S&P 1500
1050
1000
1000
950
950
900
5/13 900
850
850
800
Mar
800
750
750
S&P 1500 Composite Index
700
Margin Debt*
700
650
(billion dollars)
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 6 / May 13, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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