Fundamental Stock Market Indicator - Yardeni Research
Stock Market Briefing: Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 20, 2022
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Please visit our sites at blog.
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
1-3
January 20, 2022 / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Figure 1.
1/15
70
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
260
Boom-Bust Barometer*
60 Consumer Comfort Index
240
220 10/13
200
180
50
160
140
120
40 100
80
60 30
40
20
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
Figure 2.
0
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS vs INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
400
800
700 1/15
1/18
650
1200
600
1600 550
2000
2400
500
2800 450
3200
3600
400
4000
4400
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index
350
(1967=100)
4800
300
5200
Initial Unemployment Claims
(4-week ma, thousands, sa, inverted scale)
250
5600
6000
200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Commodity Research Bureau.
Page 1 / January 20, 2022 / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Figure 3.
400
S&P 500 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER*
4800
1/19
4600
4400
4200
S&P 500 Index
4000
300
Boom-Bust Barometer
3800
1/15
3600
3400
3200
3000
2800 200
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
100
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
0
600
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average. Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor's.
Figure 4.
210
S&P 500 INDEX & FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR
200
190 S&P 500 Index
10/13
5000
4800
1/19 4600 4400
4200
180
4000
Fundamental
3800
170
Stock Market Indicator*
3600
3400 160
3200
150
3000
2800
140
2600
2400
130
2200
120
2000
1800
110
1600
1400
100
1200
90
1000
800
80
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor's.
Page 2 / January 20, 2022 / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Figure 5.
210
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR
200
S&P 500
190
Forward Earnings*
180 Fundamental
170
Stock Market Indicator**
121/8206 170
10/13 160
150
140
160
130
150
120
140
110
130
100
120
90
110
80
100
70
90
60
80
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year's and next year's consensus forecast. ** Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials
spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 6.
350
330 S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER (weekly)
310 290 270 250 230
230 1/13
220
210
1/15
200
190
180
210
170
190
160
170
150
150 140
130
110
130
90
120
70
110
50
S&P 500
100
30
Forward Earnings* 90
10
80
-10
Boom-Bust Barometer**
-30
70
-50
60
-70
50
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year. ** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 3 / January 20, 2022 / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2022. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on , bhltotpg:./y/barlodgen.yi.acrodmen,odmYRI's Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of , bhltotpg:./y/barlodgen.yia.crodmen,odmYRI's Apps may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company's emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request.s@
................
................
In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.
To fulfill the demand for quickly locating and searching documents.
It is intelligent file search solution for home and business.
Related searches
- best stock market research tools
- stock market research tools
- yahoo finance stock market news stock quotes
- stock market today stock news market watch
- stock market current stock prices
- best fundamental stock screener
- stock market research sites
- stock market research report india
- pre market stock market watch
- free stock market research sites
- stock market fundamental analysis
- fundamental stock analysis ratios