Monthly Presentation - SBI MF
[Pages:38]Monthly Presentation
March 2019
EQUITY MARKET
Global equity market snapshot: February 2019
Performance in February 2019 (local currency returns)
Performance YTD (local currency returns)
Performance in February 2019 (US$ returns)
Performance YTD (US$ returns)
Source: Bloomberg, SBIMF Research
Indian stock market sector-wise returns: February 2019
Performance in February 2019 (local currency returns)
Performance YTD - local currency returns
? Indian equity market delivered negative returns across most of the sectors in February. Nifty and Sensex were down by 0.4% and 1.1% respectively during the month. On YTD basis, both Nifty and Sensex were down 0.6%.
? Large caps continued to outperform mid and small cap. Mid-cap index and small-cap index were down by 1.7% each during the month. On YTD basis, performance down the capitalization curve has been worse with mid and small cap index falling 7.3% and 6.9% respectively.
? PSUs and banks were the underperformers while auto and oil & gas were the outperformers during the month. On YTD basis, consumer durables and oil & gas were the sector outperformers while capital goods and metals were the sectoral laggards.
Source: Bloomberg, SBIMF Research
Q3 FY19 GDP growth moderated to 6.6%
Q3 FY19 GDP growth moderates to 6.6% vs. 7.0% in Q2 FY19
? Q3 FY19 GDP moderated to 6.6% vs. 7.0% in Q2 FY19 led by moderation in consumption spending. Consumption growth moderated from 9.4% in Q2 FY19 to 8.4% in Q3 FY19, though at +8%, it is still healthy. Investment growth improved marginally (10.6% vs. 10.2% in Q2) and net exports situation improved marginally.
? Investment growth has been holding up for nearly one and a half year and is supporting the incremental growth in India. On the other hand, consumption growth trends appears to have broadly stabilized 7-8%.
? GVA growth moderated to 6.3% (vs. 6.8% in Q2) led by softer agriculture and services growth. Industrial activities on the other hand improved. Within industrial sector, it was the robustness in construction activities and improvement in mining output which pulled the growth higher while utilities and manufacturing softened.
? Looking ahead, the government has lowered its FY19 advance estimate of growth from 7.2% to 7% for FY19. This implies a growth of 6.6% in Q4 FY19. For FY20 as well, overall growth is likely to hover around 7-7.3%.
Source: CMIE economic outlook, SBIMF Research,
Q3 FY19 depicts strength in investment and construction activities
Investment growth recovery seen since FY18; Consumption growth trends broadly stable around 7-8%
Agriculture output moderating, weak farm prices dragging the Agri-income growth even lower
Industrial activities are improving mainly due to robustness in the construction activities
Core GVA (GVA ? ex agriculture & public services), a rough proxy of private sector activity, improved marginally
Source: CMIE Economic Outlook, SBIMF Research
Economic activity tracker gave mixed signals in January 2019
High frequency indicator gave mixed signals in January 2019. Construction and investment activities continue to stay robust.
Weakness in wage growth, and moderation NBFC loan disbursement has weighed down on the demand for select consumer
(across all segments). But, pre-election spending (reflected in high CIC growth), and banks filling in some of the void left by the
NBFCs may keep the overall consumption growth supported. The launch of PM Kisan Nidhi Scheme (income support for small and
medium farmers) have gone favourably thus far. Production of consumer non-durables (i.e. low ticket consumption items) are
holding strong. IIP manufacturing, merchandise exports growth and freight activity has been softening but February PMI data was
encouraging. In services, the overall PMI services indicates robustness.
% growth
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
5yr average
Indicators that are Robust
Bank retail loans
18.2
15.1
16.8
17.2
17.0
16.9
16.5
Currency in circulation
22.7
21.2
20.0
21.1
19.6
19.1
11.6
IIP: Capital goods production
10.3
6.9
17.0
-3.1
5.9
0.0
2.9
Imports of capital goods
45.7
7.0
11.9
17.3
12.2
10.3
6.2
Services exports
20.6
19.3
18.8
8.3
12.0
0.0
6.3
Cement production
14.6
11.8
18.4
8.8
11.6
11.0
5.7
Bitumen consumption
-0.6
34.5
42.8
-15.3
2.0
15.1
8.0
Steel consumption
6.8
7.7
8.1
12.6
6.5
8.6
5.8
Indicators that have recently turned positive
Bank industrial credit
1.9
2.3
3.7
4.0
4.4
5.1
3.2
IIP: Consumer non-durables production
6.5
6.4
8.8
-0.6
5.3
0.0
5.8
Indicators that have weakened in recent months
Fertilizers production
-5.3
2.5
-11.5
-8.1
-2.4
10.5
1.9
IIP: Manufacturing production
5.2
4.8
8.2
-0.6
2.7
N/A
4.1
IIP: Mining production
-0.6
0.1
7.2
2.7
-1.0
N/A
2.9
IIP: Electricity production
7.6
8.2
10.9
5.1
4.4
-0.4
7.6
IIP: Consumer durables production
5.5
5.4
18.0
-2.1
2.9
0.0
3.9
Merchandise exports
19.3
-2.2
17.9
0.6
0.3
3.8
1.6
Freight handled at ports, railways and airways
6.7
4.2
8.4
3.8
0.5
0.7
3.6
Domestic Tractor sales
12.7
-10.5
23.6
24.5
4.8
2.8
6.8
Domestic sale of commercial vehicles
29.6
24.1
24.8
5.7
-7.8
2.2
10.2
Domestic sale of two-wheelers
2.9
4.1
17.2
7.1
-2.2
-5.2
8.8
Domestic sale of passenger Cars
-1.0
-5.6
0.4
-0.9
-2.0
-2.6
4.9
AUM of MFs
22.4
8.0
3.8
5.4
6.9
4.3
23.5
Foreign tourist arrivals
9.1
-0.1
1.7
1.4
2.0
5.3
8.9
Domestic air traffic
16.9
18.0
13.1
10.4
12.3
9.1
17.8
Indicators that are weak for long
Rural wage growth
3.6
3.5
3.8
N/A
N/A
0.0
5.3
Source: CMIE economic outlook, SBIMF Research; NB: 1. Green denotes improvement in the growth and Pink indicates a moderation. 2. We use some subjectivity in categorizing the data by looking at both the trends in the recent months as well as trends relative to long term average. 3. We have shifted to steel consumption data from steel production data since Jan 2019.
February PMI indicates improvement in economic activity
PMI manufacturing rose to a 14-month high of 54.3 in February PMI services inched higher to 52.5 in February
? PMI manufacturing increased to a 14-months high of 54.3 (vs. 53.9 in January) in February, higher than its historical average of 51.9. This is mainly led by an increases in manufacturing output, new orders and employment. The growth in the order book came, to a large extent, from new export orders. Input and output prices grew at a faster pace compared to January, with output prices growing faster than input prices leading to manufacturing margins improving a notch.
? In February, PMI Services inched higher to 52.5 vs. 52.2 in January. New business received by services companies rose to a greater extent in February amid strengthening underlying demand. At the same time, growth of factory orders climbed to a 28month peak. Business sentiment also improved, while rates of both input cost and output charge inflation cooled. One area of weakness was international trade, with exports down from January.
Source: CMIE Economic Outlook, Markiteconomics, SBIMF Research
................
................
In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.
To fulfill the demand for quickly locating and searching documents.
It is intelligent file search solution for home and business.
Related download
- annual returns of key indices lazard asset management
- monthly market review j p morgan
- understanding your private equity returns
- total return chart monthlyreturns the vanguard group
- performance 2021 global stock markets
- u s insurers exposure to unaffiliated common
- winter 2019 financial advisory deloitte
- stock market indicators historical monthly annual returns
- monthly presentation sbi mf
- returns to 1 26 04
Related searches
- sbi monthly income plan
- sbi monthly income scheme
- monthly financial presentation templates
- sbi monthly income scheme calculator
- sbi investment plan
- sbi investment schemes
- sbi home loan calculator
- sbi investment co ltd
- sbi investment calculator
- sbi loan calculator online
- sbi loan calculator india
- info sbi co in