Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical - Yardeni Research

Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,

& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.

February 1, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

480-664-1333 jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

1

Global Growth Barometer

2

Economic Surprise Index

3

Investors Intelligence Sentiment

4

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

5

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

6

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

7

AAII Sentiment

8

Volatility

9

Volume

10

Dow Theory

11

S&P 500 Moving Averages

12-13

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

14

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 15

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50016

February 1, 2022 / Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Figure 1.

850

5000

S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

750

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index

650

2/1

4500

4000

2/1

3500

3000 550

2500

450

2000

1500 350

1000



250

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 2.

-100

S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

300

700

1100

1500

S&P 500 Index

1900

2300

5000

1/22

2/1

4500

4000

3500

2700

3000

3100

Initial Unemployment Claims

3500

(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,

2500

inverted scale) 3900

4300

2000

4700 5100

1500

5500 5900 6300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

1000 500

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / February 1, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Global Growth Barometer

Figure 3.

5000

5000

YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500

4500

2/1

4500

4000

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1290.5)

4000

S&P 500 Index (4546.5)

3500

3500

3000

3000

2500

2500

2000

2000

1500 1000

1500 2/1

1000



500

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor's and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 4.

200

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

175 S&P 500 Index

Brent Crude Oil Price*

150

(dollars per barrel)

125

100

75

50

5000

2/1

4500

4000

3500

3000

1/31

2500

2000

1500

25

1000



0

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 2 / February 1, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Economic Surprise Index

Figure 5.

1000

400

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)

350

800

300

600

250

200

400

150

100 200

2/1

50

0

2/1

0

-50 -200

-100

-400

-150

-200

-600

S&P 500 minus its

200 day-moving average

-250

-300

-800

Economic Surprise Index

-350



-1000

-400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

Figure 6.

25

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent)

23 S&P 500 Forward P/E*

21

19

300

250

200

150 1/27

100

17

50

15

2/1

0

-50

13

-100

11

Economic Surprise Index

-150



9

-200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Citigroup.

Page 3 / February 1, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Investors Intelligence Sentiment

Figure 7.

6

6

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

5

Ratio

Ratio

5

Bull/Bear

Jan 11

1.90

4

Ratio*

Jan 18

1.59

Jan 25

1.31

4

3

3

2

2

1/25

1

1

0

0

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

80

80

75

Percentage

Bulls Bears

75

70

Bulls

Jan 11

43.7

23.0

Jan 18

39.8

25.0

70

65

Bears

Jan 25

34.9

26.7

65

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35

1/25

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

50

50

45

Percentage

Correction

Correction

Jan 11

33.3

40

Jan 18

35.2

Jan 25

38.4

35

45

40 1/25

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10



5

5

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Page 4 / February 1, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

Figure 8.

5200

4700 4200

3700

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)

3200

2700

2200

1700

1200

700

5200

2/1

4700

4200

3700

3200

2700

2200

1700

1200



700

200

200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.

41600 36600 31600 26600

21600

Figure 9.

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)

16600

11600

41600

2/1

36600

31600

26600

21600

16600

11600

6600

6600



1600

1600

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Page 5 / February 1, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

Figure 10.

5200

4700 4200

3700

S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

3200

(daily, ratio scale)

2700

2200

1700

1200

700

5200

2/1

4700

4200

3700

3200

2700

2200

1700

1200



700

200

200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.

41600 36600 31600 26600

21600

Figure 11.

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS* (ratio scale)

16600

11600

41600

2/1

36600

31600

26600

21600

16600

11600

6600

6600



1600

1600

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Page 6 / February 1, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download