Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 10, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Margin Debt
3-5
January 10, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 1.
700
MARGIN DEBT & WILSHIRE 5000
650
600
550
Margin Debt* (billion dollars)
500 Wilshire 5000 Index
450
400
Margin Debt
1/9
34000
32000
30000
Nov
28000
26000
24000
22000
20000
350
18000
300
16000
14000 250
12000
200 10000
150
8000
100
6000
50
4000
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit Balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 2.
3.0
3.0
MARGIN DEBT*
(as a percent of Wilshire 5000)
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
Nov
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / January 10, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Margin Debt
Figure 3.
200
200
MARGIN DEBT*
(yearly change, billion dollars)
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Nov
-50
-50
-100
-100
-150
-150
-200
-200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 4.
100
100
MARGIN DEBT*
(yearly percent change)
50
50
0
0
Nov
-50
-50
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / January 10, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Margin Debt
Figure 5.
120
120
MARGIN REQUIREMENT FOR CREDIT EXTENDED UNDER REGULATION T/U/G MARGIN STOCKS
(percent of market value)
100
100
80
80
60
60
Dec
40 1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
2023
2028 40
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 6.
800
MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500
750
3400 1/10
3200
700
3000
650
S&P 500 Index
600
550
Margin Debt*
(billion dollars)
500
2800
2600
Nov
2400
2200
450
2000
400
1800
350
1600
300
1400
250
1200
200
1000
150
800
100
600
50
400
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 5 / January 10, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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