Asset Class Performance Sept., Q3, and YTD - Total Return (%)

Goodbye September, Hello October

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The seasonal market weakness that has historically dogged investors in September came to an end

on Thursday, and major indices promptly rallied ~1% on Friday once the calendar turned to October. We wish investing were as easy as simply following seasonal trends, but the action is noteworthy nonetheless.

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With the month and quarter ending on Thursday, below is a look at our asset class matrix showing

total returns of key ETFs through Q3. US equities suffered pretty big losses in September with declines of 3-6%, but major indices entered Q4 still up double-digit percentage points YTD.

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Natural gas was the top performer in the entire matrix in Q3, followed by Ethereum. The Brazilian

stock market ETF (EWZ) was the worst performer in Q3 with a drop of 20.7%, while silver (SLV) was

the second worst at ¨C15.3%. While the Energy sector (XLE) was up nearly 9% in September, it still

finished the entirety of Q3 with a decline of 2.1%.

Asset Class Performance Sept., Q3, and YTD - Total Return (%)

US Related

ETF

Description

SPY

S&P 500

DIA

Dow 30

QQQ Nasdaq 100

IJH

S&P Midcap 400

IJR

S&P Smallcap 600

IWB Russell 1000

IWM Russell 2000

IWV Russell 3000

Sept.

-4.66

-4.21

-5.68

-4.01

-2.39

-4.60

-2.88

-4.48

Q3

0.58

-1.49

1.11

-1.75

-2.92

0.18

-4.34

-0.10

YTD

15.91

12.04

14.50

15.49

19.92

15.12

12.29

14.95

IVW

IJK

IJT

IVE

IJJ

IJS

DVY

RSP

S&P 500 Growth

Midcap 400 Growth

Smallcap 600 Growth

S&P 500 Value

Midcap 400 Value

Smallcap 600 Value

DJ Dividend

S&P 500 Equalweight

-5.82

-4.20

-3.52

-3.30

-3.78

-1.46

-2.63

-3.79

1.77

-2.01

-1.68

-0.94

-1.66

-4.04

-0.75

-0.24

16.30

10.05

14.47

15.21

20.87

25.15

22.36

18.78

FXB

FXE

FXY

GBTC

ETHE

British Pound

Euro

Yen

Bitcoin Trust

Ethereum Trust

-2.02

-2.01

-1.22

-10.38

-13.62

-2.72

-2.56

-0.32

13.55

27.00

-1.76

-5.90

-7.65

5.78

83.29

XLY

XLP

XLE

XLF

XLV

XLI

XLB

XLK

XLC

XLU

Cons Disc

Cons Stap

Energy

Financials

Health Care

Industrials

Materials

Technology

Comm Services

Utilities

-2.14

-4.13

8.97

-1.83

-5.52

-6.08

-7.18

-5.84

-6.27

-6.09

0.66

-1.00

-2.09

2.74

1.43

-4.14

-3.46

1.31

-0.89

1.79

12.12

3.92

42.03

28.94

13.44

11.54

10.70

15.50

19.34

4.22



Global

ETF

EWA

EWZ

EWC

ASHR

EWQ

EWG

EWH

PIN

EWI

EWJ

EWW

EWP

RSX

EWU

Description

Australia

Brazil

Canada

China

France

Germany

Hong Kong

India

Italy

Japan

Mexico

Spain

Russia

UK

Sept.

-4.24

-11.73

-2.79

0.58

-3.70

-5.81

-6.95

0.34

-3.95

2.70

-5.58

-4.06

3.55

-2.30

Q3

-4.46

-20.74

-2.60

-5.99

-1.61

-4.86

-10.25

11.26

-2.28

4.01

0.56

-5.10

4.62

-1.38

YTD

5.08

-12.00

18.43

-4.87

13.22

5.38

-1.30

23.93

8.82

4.74

13.14

1.17

25.55

11.97

EFA

EEM

IOO

BKF

CWI

EAFE

Emerging Mkts

Global 100

BRIC

All World ex US

-3.26

-3.87

-4.74

-3.54

-3.53

-1.10

-8.65

0.21

-11.85

-4.07

8.38

-2.07

14.08

-7.40

5.87

DBC

DBA

USO

UNG

GLD

SLV

Commodities

Agric. Commod.

Oil

Nat. Gas

Gold

Silver

5.21

-0.05

9.41

31.59

-3.22

-7.32

4.83

2.63

5.37

54.13

-0.85

-15.28

37.28

18.46

59.22

119.13

-7.93

-16.48

SHY

IEF

TLT

AGG

BND

TIP

1-3 Yr Treasuries

7-10 Yr Treasuries

20+ Yr Treasuries

Aggregate Bond

Total Bond Market

T.I.P.S.

-0.10

-1.60

-2.91

-0.92

-1.01

-0.78

0.03

-0.03

0.36

-0.01

-0.05

1.71

-0.11

-3.44

-7.55

-1.67

-1.83

3.20

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Below is a closer look at S&P 500 sector ETF performance in both September and YTD through Q3.

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The Energy sector (XLE) was the only area of strength in September, but unfortunately the sector

now makes up less than 3% of the index. A gain like this back in the mid-aughts when Energy had a

weighting above 10% would have actually been felt by the S&P 500 as a whole. Not this time.

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While Energy was up in September, Materials (XLB) was actually the worst performing sector with

a drop of 7.2%. Health Care (XLV), Technology (XLK), Industrials (XLI), Utilities (XLU), and Communication Services (XLC) all underperformed the S&P 500¡¯s (SPY) 4.66% drop in September.

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Given their outperformance in September, Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) remain well ahead of

other sectors when it comes to year-to-date gains as well. Prior to September, Energy had given

up its YTD lead among sectors, but now it¡¯s back up 42% YTD versus the S&P 500¡¯s gain of 15.9%.

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Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) are up the least of the eleven sectors YTD with gains of

less than 5%.

S&P 500 Sector ETF Performance (%): September 2021

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

8.97

-2.14

-7.18

-6.27

-6.09

-6.08

-5.84

-5.52

-4.66

-1.83

-4.13

S&P 500 Sector ETF Performance (%): YTD Through Q3

50

42.03

40

28.94

30

20

19.34

11.54

10.70

10

4.22

15.50 13.44 15.91

12.12

3.92

0

-10



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Looking at country stock market ETFs, Brazil (EWZ) has been the big loser this year after a massive

11.7% drop in September. Brazil, Hong Kong (EWH), and China (ASHR) are the three country ETFs

listed that are in the red so far this year, while Russia (RSX) and India (PIN) are up the most YTD

with gains of more than 23%.

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The US (SPY) ranks fourth on this list in terms of YTD performance behind Russia, India, and Canada

(EWC).

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In September, the US was one of the weaker countries, while the four countries that managed to

post gains during the month were Russia, Japan (EWJ), China, and India.

Country Stock Market ETF Performance (%): September 2021

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

-14

2.7

0.3

-6.9

-5.8 -5.6

-3.7

-4.7 -4.2 -4.1 -3.9

3.6

0.6

-2.8 -2.3

-11.7

Country Stock Market ETF Performance (%): YTD Through Q3

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

25.5

23.9

13.1

5.4

18.4

15.9

13.2

8.8

12.0

5.1

4.7

1.2

-1.3

-4.9

-12.0



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With the calendar crossing over into Q4, below we highlight the average performance of the Dow

Jones Industrial Average by month over the last 100, 50, and 20 years. Whereas September has

historically been the worst month of the year for the stock market, October begins what is the best

three-month stretch on the calendar. While October hasn¡¯t been the strongest month over the

last 100 years, it has still averaged a gain of 0.21%, and then November has averaged +1.28% and

December has averaged +1.51%.

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December has been higher 74% of the time over the last 100 years. The next closest month is July

at 65%.

Average Monthly % Change for the DJIA

Month

Last 100 Years % Positive Last 50 Years % Positive Last 20 Years % Positive

January

1.00

63%

1.10

60%

-0.66

45%

February

0.20

56%

0.32

60%

0.17

70%

March

0.21

58%

0.76

64%

0.14

60%

April

1.47

62%

2.24

68%

2.51

85%

May

-0.09

54%

0.22

56%

0.00

60%

June

0.41

50%

0.12

52%

-0.71

40%

July

1.64

65%

0.92

60%

1.40

75%

August

0.94

61%

-0.13

56%

-0.27

55%

September

-1.11

41%

-0.86

38%

-0.71

50%

October

0.21

60%

0.52

60%

1.22

65%

November

1.28

64%

1.63

70%

2.61

75%

December

1.51

74%

1.46

70%

0.82

65%

Average Monthly % Change for the DJIA

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0



Last 100 Years

Last 50 Years

Last 20 Years

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Digging a little deeper into seasonality

trends, at right we highlight the S&P 500's

average performance in the month of October and in Q4 based on different performance scenarios for the index through

September of each year. For example, the

top row of the table shows that the S&P

500 has averaged a gain of 0.30% (median

+1.16%) in October when the index has

been up YTD heading into the month (as it

is this year). For each performance scenario, the yellow row matches up with the

performance we've seen so far in 2021.

In general, years where the S&P is up solidly YTD heading into Q4 have typically

seen continued gains in Q4. But we have

seen some weaker-than-normal action in

October and Q4 when September has

been a down month.

Additionally, there have been 25 prior

years that have seen the S&P 500 post

negative returns in September while still

holding onto YTD gains through Q3 (as is

the case this year). In these years, the S&P

has averaged a decline of 0.94% in October, although the median change has been

+0.93%.

S&P 500 Average & Median % Chg

October When¡­

Up YTD

Down YTD

# of Yrs Average

62

0.30

31

0.71

Median

1.16

0.44

October When¡­

Up Sept.

Down Sept.

# of Yrs Average

42

1.62

50

-0.41

Median

1.54

0.48

October When¡­

# of Yrs Average

Up Sept., Up YTD

36

1.35

Down Sept., Up YTD

25

-0.94

Up Sept., Down YTD

6

3.19

Down Sept., Down YTD

25

0.12

Median

1.54

0.93

2.13

0.44

Q4 When¡­

Up YTD

Down YTD

# of Yrs Average

62

4.24

31

-0.42

Median

4.86

2.27

Q4 When¡­

Up Sept.

Down Sept.

# of Yrs Average

42

5.08

50

0.75

Median

5.81

4.03

Q4 When¡­

# of Yrs Average

Up Sept., Up YTD

36

5.40

Down Sept., Up YTD

25

2.79

Up Sept., Down YTD

6

3.18

Down Sept., Down YTD

25

-1.29

Median

5.81

4.39

2.75

2.27

S&P 500 Down 1%+ Sept., Up 10%+ YTD

Month Sept. % Chg YTD % Chg Oct. % Chg Q4 % Chg

Since 1928, there have only been eight Sep-29

-4.89

23.86

-19.93

-28.88

prior years that have seen the S&P fall Sep-33

-12.35

40.46

-7.82

2.57

more than 1% in September while still Sep-61

-1.97

14.83

2.83

7.22

holding onto YTD gains of 10%+ through Sep-63

-1.10

13.63

3.22

4.63

Q3. These years are shown in the table a Sep-75

-3.46

22.33

6.16

7.54

right. The October 1929 and October Sep-87

-2.42

32.89

-21.76

-23.23

1987 crashes show up in two of the eight Sep-91

-1.91

17.46

1.19

7.54

years in the table. In 1929, the S&P fell Sep-03

-1.19

13.20

5.50

11.64

4.89% in September and was up 23.86% Sep-21

-3.20

16.56

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through Q3. In 1987, the S&P fell 2.42% in

September and was up 32.89% through Q3. This year, the YTD gains are much lower than they

were in 1929 and 1987, but investors still never want to see '29 and '87 in comparison tables! Fortunately, in the six other years shown in the table, the S&P was up in Q4 every time ranging from a

gain of 2.57% in 1933 to a gain of 11.64% in 2003.



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