Daily Markets Overview - Yardeni Research
Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 5, 2023
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Please visit our sites at blog.
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500 Index & Sectors
1
P/Es & VIX
2
Bonds
3
Yield Curve
4-5
High Yield Bonds
6
Municipal Bond Yields
7
Dollar & Commodities
8
Growth vs Value
9
S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted
10
Foreign Interest Rates
11
September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Index & Sectors
Figure 1.
5000
4800 S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX
4600
(ratio scale, daily)
4400
4200
4000
3800
3600
3400
3200
3000 S&P 500 (4496.8)
2800
50-dma (4477.8)
200-dma (4170.8)
2600
2400
2200
2020
2021
2022
Note: Horizontal black lines are previous years' closing price index. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 2.
15
S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE:
AUGUST 2023 MONTH-TO-DATE
10
(percent change from last trading day of July)
5000 4800 4600 9/5 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2023
15
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
August 2023
-15
S&P 500 Index (-1.8)
Consumer Discretionary (-1.3)
Consumer Staples (-3.8)
Energy (1.3)
-20
Financials (-2.9)
Health Care (-0.8)
Industrials (-2.3) Information Technology (-1.5) Materials (-3.5) Real Estate (-3.1) Communication
Services (-0.4) Utilities (-6.7)
-25 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25 28 29
Source: Standard & Poor's.
August 2023 M-T-D
-10 -15 -20 -25
Page 1 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
P/Es & VIX
Figure 3.
28
28
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*
26
(daily)
26
24
S&P Forward P/Es
22
S&P 500 (18.8)
S&P 400 (13.7)
20
S&P 600 (13.4)
18
24
22
20 9/5
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 4.
100
S&P 500 VIX
90
(daily)
100 Latest (14.0)
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
9/5
10
10
0
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
Page 2 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 5.
8
10-YEAR TREASURY vs 10-YEAR TIPS (percent, daily)
6
Bonds
10-Year Treasury Bond Yield (4.27) TIPS Yield (1.98)
4
8 6 9/5 4
2
9/5
2
0
0
-2
-2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 6.
3.5
WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE* (percent, daily)
3.0
Expected Inflation Proxy (2.29) 2.5
2.0
3.5
3.0
2.5 9/5
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
.5
.5
.0
.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Nominal 10-year US Treasury bond yield minus 10-year TIPS yield. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 3 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Yield Curve
Figure 7.
5.4
5.2
US TREASURY 10-YEAR & 2-YEAR YIELDS & FED FUNDS RATE
5.0 4.8
(percent, daily)
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
Interest Rates
3.6
Fed Funds
3.4
Target Rate (5.38)
3.2
2-Year Yield (4.94)
3.0
10-Year Yield (4.27)
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
.0 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
5.4 5.2 9/5 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 9/5 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 .8 .6 .4 .2 .0 2023
Figure 8.
500
US YIELD CURVE SPREAD*
450
(basis points, daily)
400
500 Latest (-111)
450
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
-50
-50
-100
9/5
-100
-150
-150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* 10-Year Treasury yield less federal funds target rate Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 4 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Yield Curve
Figure 9.
5.8
5.8
5.6 5.4 5.2
2-YEAR TREASURY NOTE YIELD & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (percent, daily)
5.6 5.4 5.2
5.0
9/5
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.6 4.4 4.2
Interest Rates 2-Year Treasury Yield (4.94)
4.6 4.4 4.2
4.0
Fed Funds Rate
4.0
3.8
12-month Forward Futures (4.91)
3.8
3.6
Federal Funds Target Rate (5.38)
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
.6
.6
.4
.4
.2
.2
.0
.0
-.2 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
-.2 2024
Source: US Treasury & Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Figure 10.
450
US TREASURY YIELD CURVE SPREAD: 10-YEAR MINUS-2-YEAR (basis points, weekly)
350
450 Latest (-75)
350
250
250
150
150
50
50
-50
-50
9/1
-150
-150
-250
-250
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 5 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
High Yield Bonds
Figure 11.
30
YIELD ON US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BONDS (percent, daily)
25
30 Latest (8.38)
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
9/5
5
5
0
0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Figure 12.
2600
YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS
2400
10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND
(basis points, daily)
2200
2600 Latest (411)
2400
2200
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
9/5 400
200
200
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.
Page 6 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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