PDF Egg Markets Overview - Agricultural Marketing Service

Egg Markets Overview

A weekly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock and Poultry Program, Agricultural Analytics Division

October 01, 2021

Wholesale prices for cartoned shell eggs held steady through the week with supplies in a range of moderate to heavy but weakness had crept in by week's end. Offerings remain manageable and the pace of trading slowed on average interest. Wholesale prices for graded loose eggs inched higher early on but turned downward by week's end. Offerings are moderate with fully adequate supplies and average interest. The pace of trading has slowed and the volume of trailer load sales this week dropped by half last week's pace. Prices for national trading of trucklot quantities of graded, loose, White Large shell eggs increased $0.04 to $0.772 per dozen with an about steady undertone. The wholesale price on the New York market for Large cartoned shell eggs delivered to retailers declined $0.02 to $1.20 per dozen with a mixed undertone. The Midwest wholesale price for Large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses declined $0.03 to $1.07 per dozen and prices paid to producers in the Midwest for Large cartoned shell eggs was unchanged at $0.88 per dozen, both with a steady undertone. The California benchmark for Large shell eggs was down $0.02 to $1.74 per dozen with a steady undertone. Delivered prices on the California wholesale loose egg market increased $0.07 to $1.219 per dozen with a cautious steady undertone.

Loose Shell Egg, Large, White, National Index (f.o.b. dock, cents per dozen)

270

2019

2020

2021

225

180

135

90

45

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

week

U.S. Table Egg Demand (Shell Egg Demand Index)

40

2019

2020

2021

Consumer demand for shell eggs over the past week declined as grocery retailers slowed their promotions ahead of the start of the new month. However, most are making up for last week's inactivity by stepping up the promotional level for conventional shell eggs this week. In recent years, retailers have increased their feature activity for conventional shell eggs into mid-October and it remains to be seen if they will maintain that pattern this year. October has arrived and with it, the much anticipated drop in temperatures and corresponding rise in consumer indoor cooking and baking that's translates into improving demand. Marketers are working to build and rotate their stocks as they see better days coming over the next few weeks and want to be prepared to take full advantage.

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

week

Large peercentage Shell Egg demand

Promotional activity for conventional shell eggs in retail outlets is on the rise as the ad cycle advances and the average ad price is unchanged at $1.14 per dozen. Promotional activity for specialty shell eggs is also on the rise led by cage-free offerings as nutritionallyenhanced offerings fade. Feature activity for UEP-defined cage-free shell eggs increases sharply and accounts for 43% of all shell egg types on feature. The average ad price rises $0.07 to $2.47 per dozen. The average ad price spread between 12-packs of Large caged eggs and UEP cage-free eggs widens by $0.07 per dozen to a spread of $1.33 per dozen.

The overall inventory of shell eggs crept up a percentage and the nation-wide inventory of Large eggs increased just shy of 4%. The inventory of Large eggs in the key Midwest production region gained another 5% but the recent pace of increase slowed and some measure of product moved into marketing sectors to cover increasing activity in retail outlets, reflect in the National retail purchases into this week which saw a 7% increase in

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Large Shell Egg Percentage of Inventory v. Demand (SEDI)

LG% 21 58%

LG% 20

Demand 21

Demand 20 40

54%

30

20 50%

10

46% 0

42%

-10

38%

-20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

week

Egg Markets Overview

product purchases. The inventory share of Large class shell eggs gained 1.5% to a 49% share of all shell egg stocks on inventory at the start of the week, a typical pattern as stocks of the more desirable larger sizes are being built for the coming autumn demand increase. Stocks of cage-free eggs gained 3% as product is staged to support increasing retail feature activity. Stocks of nutritionally-enhanced shell eggs saw a 15% drop as stores shift their focus to other types. Breaking stock inventories were down 1% as breakers were able to find adequate supplies on the spot market to maintain schedules at a full-time pace. Total table egg production for the week was up slightly from the prior week and declined to 1% over of the level of a year ago, about 1.3 million dozen more than last year's weekly production (1%).

Wholesale prices for breaking stock in the Central States firmed and moved higher at the end of the week, up $0.01 to $0.65 per dozen with a firm undertone. Supplies and offerings are in a moderate balance and demand remains good. Trading has slowed to a moderate pace. The volume of eggs processed over the past week increased 1.5% to a 31.5% share of weekly table egg production. Production of whole egg was about unchanged while yolk production saw an 8% rise. Production of whites was up just over 1%. The production of dried eggs increased nearly 19% and that for inedible egg was up 5%. Breaking yields without inedible improved slightly to 40.78 pounds per case.

Wholesale prices for whole certified liquid whole eggs are too few to report with a fully steady undertone. Offerings are light except whites fully adequate. The wholesale price for frozen whole egg products increased $0.03 to $0.99 per pound and the price for liquid whites remained steady at $0.67 per pound. The undertone is firm to higher. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate for moderate to good demand. The pace of trading is moderate to active. Wholesale prices for dried eggs are mixed with whole dried egg up $0.05 to steady at $3.85 per pound, dried yolk up $0.20 to $2.95 per pound, and dried albumen steady at $4.90 per pound. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate. Demand is moderate to good. Trading is moderate to active.

According to NASS, the August monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage was unchanged from July and 23% below the 2020 level. Stocks of whole frozen egg decreased 3% from last month and remained well under last year's level at a 42% deficit. The share of whole egg stocks lost 1% to a 40% of total frozen stocks. Stocks of frozen yolk declined 16%after July's sharp rise and is now just 1% over the year ago level. Stocks of frozen egg whites were unchanged but dropped to 23% under last year. Stocks of unclassified eggs posted the only significant increase, up 3%, but 27% below 2020. The share of unclassified frozen stocks gained 2% to 47% of all frozen egg products in storage.

Cage-free commitments as of September 2021 remain about unchanged, requiring 66.7 billion cage-free eggs per year to meet 100% of needs from an approximate cage-free flock of 221.5 million hens (69% of the U.S. non-organic flock), indicating a shortage of 139 million hens from the current non-organic cage-free flock of 82.6 million hens. The average lay rate for non-organic cage-free production is currently estimated at 82.3%.

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Weekly Eggs Processed (30-dozen cases)

1.8

2019

2020

2021

1.7

million 30-dozen cases

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

week

total 1.4%

Eggs Processed Week-to-Week Change share whole whites yolks dried

0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 8.1% 18.6%

inedible 4.9%

Central States Breaking Stock Eggs (cents per dozen)

90

2019

2020

2021

75

60

45

30

15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

week

Midwest Producer Est. Margin for a Dozen Caged Large, White Table Shell Eggs

(price paid less production cost per dozen)

250

200

cents per dozen

150

100

50

0

-50 J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

2019

2020

2021

O

N

D

Egg Markets Overview

Shell Eggs Market Price Comparisons

(as of October 01, 2021)

(National Index on a loose-egg basis, all other prices for cartoned eggs; LG White avg prices in cents per dozen)

sector markup

14%

22%

4%

prior current

loose

carton

carton

carton

carton

77.2

88.0

107.0 111.0 114.0

national index producer

delivered delivered store retail on ad

warehouse

door

Producer, warehouse, & store door = MW; retail no sale NY market; retail on sale Nat'l Retail Feature; loose eggs include minimal

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Key Egg Markets Overview

Recent History

1-Oct % Change 24-Sep 17-Sep 10-Sep 3-Sep 27-Aug

SHELL EGGS (Large, White, conventional in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices)

77.17

5% 73.61 69.61 76.28 88.22 89.40

New York, Cartoned (price to retailers)

122.00

0% 122.00 122.00 139.00 145.00 145.00

Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse)

107.00

-3% 110.00 128.00 132.00 132.00 130.00

California, Cartoned, benchmark

174.00

-1% 176.00 194.00 200.00 200.00 198.00

National Retail Shell Egg (avg. ad price in dollars per dozen)

Conventional, Large, White

1.14

Cage-Free, Large, Brown/White

2.47

0% 1.14 1.01 0.85 1.29 0.93 3% 2.40 2.55 2.55 2.46 2.55

EGG PRODUCTS (f.o.b. dock prices; dollars per pound)

Central States Breaking Stock (dlvd prices per doz) 65.00

Whole Frozen Eggs

99.00

Whole Dried Eggs

3.85

Processed Share of Weekly Egg Production

31.5%

2% 3% 1% 0.4%

64.00 96.00 3.80 31.1%

65.00 95.00 3.80 29.7%

72.00 95.00 3.75 30.3%

72.00 95.00 3.70 31.4%

72.00 93.00 3.75 31.0%

SHELL EGG DEMAND INDICATOR (no units) Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics

-3.8

-1.5 -2.3 -1.2

2.4

3.1

4.8

Key Shell Egg Markets Snapshot - 2021

(Large, White, Conventional Shell Eggs in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices) New York, Cartoned (price to retailers) Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse) 1 California, Cartoned, benchmark Central States Breaking Stock (delivered prices) 1 Whole Frozen Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Whole Dried Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Conventional Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Cage-free2 Shell Egg Demand Indicator 1 mostly high; 2 non-organic

1-Oct 77.2 122.0 107.0 174.0 65.0 99.0 3.85 1.14 2.47 -3.8

Change 5% 0% -3% -1% 2% 3% 1% 0% 3% -1.5

24-Sep 57.6 122.0 110.0 176.0 90.0 96.0 3.80 1.14 2.40 -2.3

2021 High 113.5 12-Mar 152.0 10-Mar 135.0 15-Mar 200.0 30-Aug 73.0 12-Mar 99.0 01-Oct 3.85 01-Oct 1.59 02-Apr 2.77 02-Jul 18.1 01-Jan

2021 Low 44.6 10-Jun 90.0 10-Jun 75.0 14-Jun 123.0 14-Jun 34.0 08-Jan 63.0 08-Jan 2.90 15-Jan 0.78 29-Jan 1.84 01-Jan -14.2 05-May

Egg Markets Overview

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