HISTORICAL FREQUENCY OF POSITIVE STOCK RETURNS

HISTORICAL FREQUENCY OF POSITIVE STOCK RETURNS

Over very short time periods, stocks' direction can be highly unpredictable. Historically, stocks have been positive on a daily basis 53.0% of the time--little better than a coin flip. However, history also shows the longer the holding period, the greater the likelihood stocks have positive returns.

Exhibit 1: S&P 500 Returns*

Daily Returns Calendar Month Returns Calendar Quarter Returns Calendar Year Returns Rolling 1 Year Returns, Monthly Rolling 5 Year Returns, Monthly Rolling 10 Year Returns, Monthly Rolling 20 Year Returns, Monthly Rolling 25 Year Returns, Monthly

Number of Periods

Positive Negative

Total

12,343

10,916

23,259

693

411

1,104

253

115

368

68

24

92

816

277

1,093

914

130

1,044

926

58

984

864

0

864

804

0

804

Percent of Periods

Positive Negative

53.1%

46.9%

62.8%

37.2%

68.8%

31.3%

73.9%

26.1%

74.7%

25.3%

87.5%

12.5%

94.1%

5.9%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

Exhibit 2: The Historical Frequency of Positive S&P 500 Returns**

100% 80%

~2 yrs. 90%

70% ~4 mo.

80%

90% ~6 years

100% ~16 years

70%

60%

50% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Source: Global Financial Data, Inc. as of 12/31/2017. * Exhibit 1 uses historical S&P 500 returns over various periods. Daily return data begin on 01/31/1928, and are based on price appreciation only; all other data begin on 01/31/1926 and reflect total returns. ** Exhibit 2 plots the percent of positive S&P 500 rolling periods (from 0-20 years) showing longer timeframes significantly increase the frequency of positive stock market returns. Calculated using monthly rolling holding periods from 01/31/1926 ? 12/31/2017.

?2018 Fisher Investments. Investing in securities involves the risk of loss. Intended for use by employers considering or sponsoring retirement plans; not for personal use by plan participants.

K02182V February 2018

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