Housing Affordability Monitor - National Bank

Housing Affordability Monitor

Economics and Strategy

Rising home prices posing a challenge for affordability

By Kyle Dahms & Camille Baillargeon

February 3, 2021

Housing affordability in Canada improved in the fourth quarter of 2020, marking a third amelioration in a row. That said, the improvement this quarter was much less impressive. Higher incomes and record low interest rates were almost completely offset by a substantial rise in home prices. Indeed, prices for the national composite rose 4.5% in the quarter, the highest quarterly gain in 11 years. While a 29 basis points decline in our 5-year benchmark mortgage rate has helped keep housing affordable this quarter, the nearly 100 basis points decline for rates since the start of the pandemic is surely propulsion for the current appreciation in home prices. Although the confluence of all these factors has resulted in home affordability having never been better since 2015 (see page 13), there is another hurdle for potential homebuyers. The rise in home prices has translated into a higher down payment. At a national level, there has never been a worse time to accumulate the minimum down payment (see left chart). Assuming a savings rate of 10% of total median household income, it would now take 60 months (5 years) to save for the minimum down payment (approximately 6%) on the representative home. Still, with interest rates unlikely to rise soon, vaccine rollout ushering a return to normal and market conditions in favour of sellers, home prices are on track to keep growing in 2021. As a result, affordability is likely to deteriorate on both a mortgage payment as a percentage of income and down payment basis going forward.

HIGHLIGHTS:

In the fourth quarter of 2020, Canadian housing affordability improved for a third consecutive quarter. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) fell 0.1 points after a 2.2-point decline in Q3'20. Seasonally adjusted home prices increased 4.5% in Q4'20 from Q3'20; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) declined 29 basis points; while median household income rose 1.2%.

Among the ten markets covered, affordability improved in five of them. There were improvements in Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Edmonton and Quebec (see chart on the right). On the flip side, Hamilton, Ottawa, Montreal and Toronto showed deteriorations in the quarter. Victoria was essentially flat in the month. Countrywide, affordability improved in the condo (-0.8pp) portion while the non-condo (+0.1pp) segment got slightly worse. See detailed statistics on page 12.

Canada: Q4 change in housing affordability in 10 metropolitan areas

Q/Q change in mortgage payment on median-price home (25-year amortization, 5-year term) 3.0

Percentage points of median income

2.0

1.0 Deterioration

0.0 Improvement

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0 Interest rate Home price Income Total

-4.0 CAL WIN VAN EDM QUE CAN VIC

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada, Teranet-NBC)

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Housing Affordability Monitor

Economics and Strategy

Toronto

In Toronto, housing affordability moved in opposite directions by market segment in the fourth quarter of 2020. It deteriorated for non-condo dwellings (MPPI* up 0.4 pp) and improved for condos (MPPI* down 1.2 pp). This was in line with the urban composite index. The median home price for condos and for non-condo dwellings increased 1.2% and 5.5%, respectively, lifting the median home price for all dwellings combined to nearly one million dollars. The median annual income increased 1.3% and interest rates declined, but this was not enough to fully offset higher home prices. The median home price for all dwellings combined increased 4.9% over the quarter, outrunning the urban composite index in this regard. Overall, the MPPI* deteriorated 0.1 pp on a quarterly basis, which was worse than the urban composite index, but improved 3.0 pp on an annual basis, which was slightly better. *See tables page 12.

NonCondo

$1,039,438

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market

$178,499

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home

Condo

$615,805

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market

$124,335

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo

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TORONTO

Mortgage payment as a % of income (MPPI)

NonCondo

58.2%

S + 0.4%

Q/Q

Condo 34.5% T - 1.2% Q/Q

289

30.5%

Months of saving required for the down payment (saving rate of 10%)

Premium for buying compared to the national urban composite

51

Months of saving required for the down payment (saving rate of 10%)

-0.7%

Premium/discount for buying compared to renting a

two-bedroom condo in the GTA

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Housing Affordability Monitor

Economics and Strategy

Montreal

Montreal saw the median home price for all dwellings combined rise 6.1% in the quarter on jumps of 6.6% and a 3.5%, respectively, for non-condo dwellings and condos. An increase in the median annual income (+1.3%) and lower interest rates were not enough to offset higher home prices (MPPI* up 0.4 pp). Unlike what transpired in the non-condo segment (+0.6 pp), the situation did improve in the condo segment (-0.3 pp). Year on year, Montreal registered the second weakest decline in MPPI* (-0.5 pp) of the ten urban centres covered after Ottawa/Gatineau. *See tables page 12.

$446,648

NonCondo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market

$91,083

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home

Condo

$332,230

$67,750

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo

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MONTREAL

Mortgage payment as a % of income (MPPI)

NonCondo

31.3%

S + 0.6%

Q/Q

Condo 23.3% T - 0.3% Q/Q

39

-43.9%

Months of saving required for the down payment (saving rate of 10%)

Premium for buying compared to the national urban composite

29

4.3%

Months of saving required for the down payment (saving rate of 10%)

Premium/discount for buying compared to renting a

two-bedroom condo in Montreal

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Housing Affordability Monitor

Economics and Strategy

Vancouver

Housing affordability in Vancouver as measured by the MPPI* improved for condos (-1.3 pp) while holding steady for non-condo dwellings. As a result, the MPPI* for all dwellings combined improved more than the urban composite index did (-0.4 pp vs. -0.1 pp). The monthly mortgage payment as a percentage of household income remained the highest of all the urban centres even though it stood at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2016. A higher median annual income (+1.0%) teamed up with low interest rates to negate higher home prices (+3.8%), thus contributing to improve the MPPI*. *See tables page 12.

$1,342,184

NonCondo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market

$230,488

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home

$633,030

$127,663

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo

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VANCOUVER

Mortgage payment as a % of income (MPPI)

NonCondo

82.1%

X

0.0% Q/Q

Condo 38.7% T - 1.3% Q/Q

409

68.5%

Months of saving required for the down payment (saving rate of 10%)

Premium for buying compared to the national urban composite

58

26.9%

Months of saving required for the down payment (saving rate of 10%)

Premium/discount for buying compared to renting a

two-bedroom condo in Vancouver

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Housing Affordability Monitor

Economics and Strategy

Calgary

Calgary recorded the best improvement in MPPI* (-0.9 pp) among the ten urban centres covered in the fourth quarter of the year. The improvement was observed in both the condo and the noncondo segments (-0.6 pp and -1.0 pp, respectively). Calgary was the only urban centre where condo prices fell on a quarterly basis (-0.1%). They also fell on an annual basis (-2.4%). This retreat, combined with a higher median annual income (+0.7%) and lower interest rates, improved affordability for all dwellings combined by 0.9 pp on the quarter. At 23%, the MPPI* was the lowest ever recorded for this city. *See tables page 12.

$480,192

NonCondo

Price of the representative home in the metropolitan market

$97,923

Household annual income needed to afford the representative home

$243,336

$49,622

Condo

Price of the representative condo in the metropolitan market

Household annual income needed to afford the representative condo

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CALGARY

Mortgage payment as a % of income (MPPI)

NonCondo

26.2%

T-

1.0%

Q/Q

Condo 13.3% T - 0.6% Q/Q

33

-39.7%

Months of saving required for the down payment (saving rate of 10%)

Premium for buying compared to the national urban composite

17

Months of saving required for the down payment (saving rate of 10%)

-38.7%

Premium/discount for buying compared to renting a

two-bedroom condo in Calgary

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