‘Religion’ and the ‘new Irish’: a study in the use of ...



Malcolm P.A. Macourt

Honorary Research Fellow,

Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester

The ‘new religious landscape’ and the ‘new Irish’: the Census – a useful tool?

To what extent can or should a Census of Population provide detailed evidence on an apparently new social phenomenon? In making Census data available to the public, where should the balance be struck between individual privacy and the need of society to have reliable evidence through which social policies may be addressed? Can a ‘new religious landscape’ be identified through Census data?

In the context of ‘new religious movements’ this paper addresses both the censuses in the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland, though its primary focus is on the Republic of Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland’s population increased markedly in the decade from 1996. Much of that increase was through the inward migration of people with little or no prior connection with the state. Not only were there significant numbers of ‘new Irish’ (as the media called them) whose places of birth, nationality, or ethnic origin differ from the historical “Ireland, Irish and ‘White’” but also, in a hitherto almost mono-cultural state, “Catholic” appears no longer to be the only response to the religion question.

Analysing the results of Census questions on religion and comparing those results with responses to questions on nationality, place of birth, ethnicity and length of stay in the Republic this paper explores how much it is possible to glean about ‘the new Irish’ and ‘new religious movements’ from the Census taken on Sunday 23rd April 2006. Data are taken from tables in published in Census Volumes and elsewhere by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), from its Small Area Population Statistics and from its Samples of Anonymised Records[i].

While it is possible to identify the nature and extent of changes to the religious landscape of the Republic of Ireland, it is only possible to provide limited detail on the arrival of religions long-established elsewhere. The extent to which people classify themselves as non-religious or as consciously resisting religion can only be estimated from data which does not fully address these ways of being.

Identifying the changing religious landscape of Northern Ireland from Census data is more difficult because (a) the most recent census was in April 2001[ii], because (b) the different approach to the provision of data on the religions questions taken by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and because (c) the ways in which British requirements on confidentiality have been interpreted makes detailed material difficult to assess. Nonetheless the extent of the province-wide provision of data on religions with small numbers of adherents provides some evidence of the changing religious landscape and offers some indication how new religious movements developed between 1991 and 2001.

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1. Introduction

Both jurisdictions in the island of Ireland include questions on religion in their censuses. Civil disturbances for much of the period 1970-1995 in Northern Ireland and the, later, development of the ‘Celtic Tiger economy’ in the Republic of Ireland provide rather different contexts in which responses to the question have been given and data published.

The population of the Republic of Ireland with inward investment, a buoyant labour market and inward migration increased by over 600,000 between 1996 and 2006. Net inward migration accounted for almost 60% of this increase[iii], fuelled partly by the widening of membership of the European Union from 15 to 25 members.

This substantial immigration, with immigrants each bringing their own religious and cultural experience, make the Census results for 2002 and 2006 worth examining – particularly the results of the questions on religion, nationality, place of birth, length of stay and ethnicity for those religions with more than 10,000 adherents. [Sections 2-6]

Little is published on religions with fewer responses, and many of those responses published have been grouped together. In Northern Ireland even less data on such responses from the religion questions in the 2001 Census is published, however the responses appear not to be grouped. Nonetheless the evidence on the religion questions is worth examining because it provides basic data on religions with few responses and because it provides evidence of the fragmentation of Protestantism. [Section 7]

The benefits of examining ‘new religious movements’ through the results of the religion questions are not extensive, however some useful information can be discerned about religions long-established elsewhere. [Section 8]

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2. Sources of census data (Republic of Ireland) on which this paper is based

The 2002 and 2006 Census returns for the Republic relate to the de facto population and therefore much of the published material includes visitors present on census night as well as those in residence; usual residents temporarily absent from the area were excluded from the census count. The next census is scheduled for April 2011.

For the 2006 Census one volume (No. 4) covered ‘Usual Residence, Migration, Birthplaces and Nationalities’, another (No. 5) covered ‘Ethnic or Cultural Background’; a further volume which covered ‘Religion’ (No. 13)[iv] was published in November 2007 as the last in the numbered list of volumes announced by the CSO. In a new departure, the CSO published in June 2008 ‘a thematic examination of the non-Irish national population’ which contained some additional evidence on religions long-established elsewhere.

Religion

Religion has been a key feature of the development of the Republic of Ireland. A question on religion has featured in all decennial censuses since 1861. The question was worded: ‘State the religion, religious denomination or body to which the person belongs’, until 2002[v] when the wording changed to ‘what is your religion?’ In 2002 and 2006 respondents were asked to tick a ‘box’ – a new innovation in 2002 – one ‘box’ was provided each for Roman Catholic, Church of Ireland, Presbyterian, Methodist and Islam, and one for ‘Other, write in your RELIGION’. There was also a ‘box’ for ‘no religion’[vi].

The numbers reported as belonging to what might be described as ‘new religious movements’ or to religions long-established elsewhere were not separately published until 1991[vii], and then only national totals by gender for those religion labels recording more than 200 adherents[viii].

Deciphering the contents of ‘written in’ religions from the box ‘Other’, the CSO allocated some responses to the main religions – such as ‘Church of England’ to its fellow Anglican ‘Church of Ireland’ - and created separate categories for others. These other categories included three catch-alls, ‘apostolic or pentecostal’, ‘evangelical’ and ‘pantheist’; other categories on which the CSO appears to have identified data but not published that data include Congregationalist, Seventh Day Adventist, Christian Scientist, Sikh, Unification Church (Moonies), Spiritualist, Satanist, Taoist and New Age. The CSO also identified particular sects within Islam (Shi’a, Sunni and Kharijite) and identified both Hare Krishna and Hindu, but did not publish results from these four.

Separately from recording a category, the CSO published only those categories in which 200 or more people were identified. The CSO does not appear[ix] to have recorded Reformed Presbyterians, Free Presbyterians or Unitarians, each of which have several congregations in the Republic, neither did it record responses which indicated a particular groups of ‘evangelicals’, or of those of ‘pentecostal’ or ‘apostolic’ persuasion.

The CSO programme of publication in 2002 and 2006 was extensive for those who responded in each of nine categories: the five ‘tick-boxed’ religions, two other religions [Orthodox and ‘Christian’[x]] which had over 10,000 adherents in the State, those who responded ‘none’ and those who made no statement.

The level of detail for each of these nine categories, including those who ticked the ‘Islam’ box or who responded ‘Orthodox’ included total population, by gender, for each county and for each town with over 5,000 people. The CSO also published – but only for the whole Republic - a wide range of material including economic status, employment status, occupational group, socio-economic group and social class. It also included highest level of education completed and the age at which full-time education ceased. For those who were resident in private households it also included the nature of their occupancy. For males and females usually resident and present in the State, it included nationality.

Beyond these nine categories, some individual religious denominations or religions had data published about them separately, others had none. Regional totals by gender were provided for each of sixteen religion responses[xi]. Twelve of these responses were religions, denominations or groupings: ‘Apostolic or Pentecostal’, Buddhist, Hindu, Lutheran, ‘Evangelical’, Jehovah’s Witness, Baptist, Jewish, Latter Day Saints (Mormon), Quaker (Society of Friends), Baha’i and Brethren; four responses referred to those who made a different sort of declaration: ‘Pantheist’, Agnostic, Atheist and ‘Lapsed Roman Catholic’. Exactly which of these categories should be included as ‘new religious movements’ and which as ‘New Age’ is clearly a matter for some debate; others can be described as ‘religions long-established elsewhere’.

It is extremely difficult to identify, from the Census question, those who classified themselves as consciously resisting religion (e.g. new spiritualities, humanism etc.). The choices offered to each of them seemed to be (a) tick the box relating to the religion in which they were brought up (e.g. Roman Catholic), (b) ignore the question altogether, (c) respond ‘none’, (d) respond with an answer which records their belief system (e.g. Agnostic). Basic data was published only for those responses, or groups of responses as decided by the CSO, which attracted 200 persons.

‘Place of Birth’, ‘Nationality’ and ‘Ethnic or Cultural Background’

Place of Birth questions have a long history in the Irish Census; in 2002 and 2006 the question invited as a response county of birth if on the island of Ireland, and country if outside Ireland. In 2006 612,629 people recorded that they were born outside the Republic, a significant increase from the 400,016 recorded in 2002, 271,177 in 1996 and 228,725 in 1991. Of those aged 25-39 in 2006, 24% were born outside the state; this compared with less 6% of those aged 70+[xii].

The sole table contained in any of the published volumes which cross-classified place of birth and religion[xiii] concerned only those persons usually resident and present in the State on census night; that table reported only on the nine ‘religion’ categories identified earlier. Over 63% of Muslims were born in Africa or Asia, and less than 24% were born in the Republic; just less than 57% of those identifying as Orthodox were born in European countries outside the (2006 boundaries) European Union and only 13% were born in the Republic. Just over 54% of those who responded ‘none’ were born in the Republic, compared with 82% of those who did not state a religion[xiv].

A question on nationality appeared in the Census for the first time in 2002. In 2006 multiple answers were permitted two of which were separately identified in the published material: Irish/English (14,512) and Irish/American (12,075). Apart from those who responded ‘Irish’, those who gave the single answer ‘British’ were – at 110,579 – the largest group in 2006 (an increase of less than 7% between 2002 and 2006); whereas those who gave a nationality other than Irish or British numbered 302,664, an increase of 77% in just four years.

There was also one table which cross-classified nationality and religion[xv]; it too concerned only those persons usually resident and present in the State on census night, and it too only reported on the nine ‘religion’ categories identified earlier. In 2006, with the arrival in the previous four years of many people of Polish and Lithuanian nationality (for example), over 95% of Roman Catholics had Irish or British nationality; for Church of Ireland almost 93%, over 80% for Presbyterians, almost 65% for ‘Christians’, and over 73% for those who responded ‘None’. Of those who did not state a religion and who did provide their nationality the equivalent datum was almost 78%, however over 43% of those who failed to state their nationality also failed to answer the question on religion.

The question on ethnic or cultural background was introduced for the first time in 2006[xvi]. Responses were encouraged in four main categories: ‘white’, ‘black’, ‘Asian’ and ‘other’. The category ‘white’ was sub-divided into Irish, Irish Traveller, and any other white background; ‘black’ into African and any other black background; ‘Asian’ into Chinese and any other Asian background; the ‘other’ category, which explicitly included those of ‘mixed background’ invited respondents to write in their own description[xvii]. Over 40,000 people failed to make a statement to both the religion and the ethnic questions.

Almost 95% of the population stated that their ethnic or cultural background was ‘white’[xviii]; of the remainder, one-third made no statement and two thirds (3.43% of the population) gave ‘black’, Asian or ‘other’ responses. The percentage giving ‘black’, Asian or ‘other’ responses ranged from over 6% in Greater Dublin to less than 1% in rural areas and in villages with less than 1,500 inhabitants – with the percentage in some towns exceeding 8%.

It is difficult to judge whether this question caused confusion to some respondents. For example although Roman Catholics constituted 49% of ‘other including mixed background’ ethnic origin[xix], they constituted only 30% of black respondents and 26% of Asian respondents: this may be a reminder that some respondents might have considered themselves to be of ‘mixed background’ if they shared an Irish and an ‘other white’ origin. Of those who responded ‘Islam’, 1,886 gave a ‘white Irish’ response and 3,597 gave an ‘other white’ response – perhaps including those from Bosnia - together these responses accounted for over 1/6th of all Muslims[xx].

Usual Residence and Length of Stay

Three questions were asked in the 2002 and 2006 Censuses on usual residence and length of stay; they covered (current) usual residence, usual residence one year before and a question for those who had lived outside the Republic for a year or more. Those only temporarily in the State can be identified by the country of their usual residence as can (separately) those who moved into the State in the twelve months before the Census. Those who had lived outside the Republic can be identified by the year of their (most recent) move into the State and by the country in which they last resided.

The 2006 Census showed that there were 67,835 people temporarily in the State – presumably tourists and visiting business people for the most part - of them, 10,363 were born in Republic[xxi]. Of those residents who moved into the State in the twelve months before the 2006 Census (121,939), 98,391 had been born outside the Republic[xxii].

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3. Small Area Population Statistics (SAPS)

The Small Area Population Statistics (SAPS) made available following the 2006 Census contain over 1000 items of census information about each District Electoral Division (DED) and, for the five cities and their suburbs, about each Enumeration Area[xxiii]. Most questions in the Census are represented, and the extent of data is marked. However on the questions which form the concern of this paper the evidence ranges from that which is directly relevant to that which is only marginally useful.

Religion has appeared in the SAPS since 1981, albeit only minimally. In 2002 and 2006 only eight pieces of evidence are available for each DED: for both genders, totals for Roman Catholic, All Other Stated Religions, ‘none’, and ‘not stated’.

Place of Birth and Nationality are included in the SAPS. However for each, persons usually resident in the State are divided into seven categories: Republic of Ireland, UK, Poland, Lithuania, other EU countries/nationalities, rest of the world and not stated. Poland and Lithuania were included in the 2006 SAPS for the first time. Ethnicity has been included in the 2006 SAPS, however the only categories included were: Irish Traveller, Black Irish, Asian Irish, Other and Not Stated.

The location of recent migrants in individual DEDs – the ‘New Irish’ – may be deduced with difficulty by examining the Place of Birth, Nationality, Ethnicity and the All Other Stated Religions material.

Without further categories for three variables in the SAPS (religion, place of birth, nationality) little can be deduced at the small scale. Without separating (for example) USA, Australia and Nigeria from other places of birth or nationality, without separating the traditional Irish protestant churches from others, little can be achieved in identifying the extent and nature of ‘new religions’ in individual parts of the Republic.

While the inclusion of Enumeration Areas in and surrounding the five cities has made it much easier to locate particular communities of some of the ‘New Irish’ using Census data alone, there is no direct benefit for locating ‘new religions’.

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4. Samples of Anonymised Records

The decision by the CSO to make available a Sample of Anonymised Records (SAR) [xxiv] was a crucial one for census analysts, though the benefits of such samples are very limited when studying ‘new religions’. The CSO first made a SAR available after the 1996 Census; this was followed by a 5% SAR after the 2002 Census – in which there was a religion question – and again after a similar Census in 2006. As the official Guide to the 2002 5% SAR has it: ‘The records relating to persons within households were anonymised by striping off all identifiable information such as household number, person number within household and by recoding variables where the number of categories could lead to the identification of an individual when combined with other information on the record.’ The Guides list the variables included and their categories. While the lowest level of geography given is the County, persons in the sample are also coded by whether they were enumerated in an Urban Area (which includes towns and cities with a population of 1,500 persons or more) or in a Rural Area.

The decision to include religion as one of the 29 variables in the 5% SARs for both the 2002 and 2006 was an important one; however the decision only to recognise ‘Church of Ireland’ in addition to Roman Catholic, ‘none’, and ‘not stated’ has severely limited the use of SARs in the context of this paper.

The 5% SARs also include Place of Birth, Nationality, ‘Usual Residence one year ago’, Year taking up residency in Ireland and Country of Previous Residence – and for 2006 Ethnicity. However, for the purposes of these samples, place of birth for those born outside the Republic of Ireland, and country of previous residence for those who had lived outside the Republic ‘for a period of a year or more’, were grouped into 5 headings: Northern Ireland, Great Britain, Other EU, USA and ‘Other countries’.

The only ‘nationalities’ identified in the 5% SARs were Irish, Non-Irish and Not Stated[xxv], the only ‘ethnicities’ identified were Irish (including Irish Traveller), ‘other stated ethnicity’ and not stated. For ‘usual residence one year ago’, only two categories outside the Republic were identified: in Northern Ireland and elsewhere (abroad). Those who lived outside the Republic for a period of one year or more were asked to indicate the year of taking up residence in the Republic, the year stated was grouped into 7 decennial categories including (for 2006) 1991-2000 and 2001-2006.

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5. Data from the 2006 Census: published Census Reports, SAPS, SARs

In the first Census taken after the creation of two jurisdictions in Ireland (taken in 1926) 92½% of the population of the Irish Free State claimed to belong to the Roman Catholic Church; that church was accorded special status in the Constitution of the Republic of Ireland in 1937, and for many had extensive influence.

By 1961 the percentage of Roman Catholics had increased to over 95%, and less than ¼% failed to claim a religion: less than 140,000 of those who did claim a religion claimed one other than the Roman Catholic Church[xxvi]. This number only increased by 10,000 in the 30 years to 1991, while in that census a further 150,000 failed to claim a religion. By 2006 the numbers claiming a religion other than Roman Catholic had doubled to just over 300,000, with over 250,000 failing to claim a religion.

The 1991 Census Report showed that, of those who claimed a religion, 95% claimed the Roman Catholic Church as their church – the same as 30 years earlier. In 1991 almost 2% of the total population claimed that they had no religion, and a further 2½% made no statement. By 2006 rather more than double the 1991 percentage – nearly 4½% - claimed that they had no religion; the numbers who failed to make a statement had slowly reduced since 1991, from over 83,000 to 70,000 in 2006. By 2006 of those who did claim a religion, the percentage claiming to be Roman Catholic had reduced slightly to 92½%.

Table 1 demonstrates that the number of those who did not declare a religion has increased from just over 150,000 in 1991 to over 250,000 in 2006. How people classify themselves as non-religious or as consciously resisting religion can only be estimated from data which does not fully address these ways of being.

Table 1: major responses to the religion question, 1991, 2002, 2006 with gender ratios

| |2006 |% |f/m06 |2002 |% |f/m02 |1991 |

|Total: ‘the remainder’ | |61,744 | |42,540 | |22,360 | |

|‘Apostolic or Pentecostal’ |0.19 |8,116 |1.13 |3,152 |1.14 |285 |1.16 |

|Buddhist |0.15 |6,516 |1.08 |3,894 |0.90 |986 |0.75 |

|Hindu |0.14 |6,082 |0.64 |3,099 |0.57 |953 |0.67 |

|Lutheran |0.12 |5,279 |1.54 |3,068 |1.64 |1,010 |1.40 |

|‘Evangelical’ |0.12 |5,276 |1.16 |3,780 |1.20 |819 |1.13 |

|Jehovah’s Witness |0.12 |5,152 |1.24 |4,430 |1.18 |3,393 |1.21 |

|‘Protestant’ |0.10 |4,356 |1.31 |3,104 |1.34 |6,347 |1.09 |

|Baptist |0.08 |3,338 |1.17 |2,265 |1.07 |1,156 |1.13 |

|Jewish | ................
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