New York City Goes to College - NYU Steinhardt

TECHNICAL APPENDICES

New York City Goes to College

A First Look at Patterns of College Enrollment, Persistence, and Degree Attainment for NYC High School Students

Vanessa Coca

November 2014

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APPENDIX A: DATA AND SAMPLE

This appendix describes the data, sample, and key measures used in the accompanying report, New York City Goes to College: A First Look at Patterns of College Enrollment, Persistence, and Degree Attainment for New York City High School Students.

Data Sources

The data used for this study come from an extensive longitudinal database with information about NYC public school students, compiled by the Research Alliance for New York City Schools using data from the New York City Department of Education (DOE).

Since 2006, the DOE has tracked the post-secondary enrollment of its graduates through an agreement with the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC), a nonprofit organization that collects information on post-secondary enrollment and degree attainment. The NSC is increasingly working with school districts around the country to track the post-secondary outcomes of students those districts serve.

The Research Alliance merged NSC data obtained by the DOE with our existing data archive. This allowed us to create a new and comprehensive database that illuminates the educational pathways of NYC students from kindergarten through post-secondary education.

It is important to note that NSC data is likely to understate actual rates of college enrollment and completion (Goldrick-Rab & Harris, 2010). One reason for this is that not all colleges participate in NSC data collection. In the fall of 2006, the NSC captured about 89 percent of college enrollment (two- and four-year) nationwide (NSC, 2014). At that point, the rate of coverage for New York State was 90 percent. By the fall of 2012, coverage rose to 95.8 percent in New York State. Given the high rate of coverage throughout the period we studied, we do not expect that increases in NSC participation by colleges significantly influenced the outcomes we observed.

Individual college students may also decline to have their enrollment information shared with the NSC, and are then missing from NSC data. Further, high school students (or their guardians) may opt out of having their personally identifiable information shared with the NSC, which results in their exclusion when the NSC matches DOE data to their database (NYC DOE, n.d.).

Another source for undercounting emerges from the method the NSC uses to match information about college students with information requested by school districts. The NSC uses an algorithm to match information from school districts requesting data to the data received from colleges. This means that the NSC's ability to provide reliable data to school districts depends on receiving accurate information both from colleges and from school districts. Any inconsistency in data sent to the NSC

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(e.g., first and last names, date of birth) could result in changes in observed estimates of college enrollment or degree attainment seen over time.

Using college enrollment and degree attainment data from multiple sources can help ensure greater reliability of estimates of college enrollment and completion. In fact, our college enrollment and persistence rates may differ from those reported by the DOE because we rely solely on information from the NSC, whereas the DOE supplements NSC data with information received directly with CUNY (Wilkes et al., 2012). In the future, we hope to incorporate CUNY data into our analyses.

In addition, the DOE may report higher rates of college enrollment than we do in this report because NYC high schools are allowed to appeal their college enrollment rates based on formal evidence of their students' enrollment in college (NYC DOE, 2013a). This information was not included in the NSC data we received.

Despite the challenges described above, NSC data is still the one of the best sources available for tracking college-going in the U.S. For this report, we used NSC data to investigate three important college-related outcomes: enrollment, persistence, and completion. Importantly, NSC data allow us to us track students as they move across different colleges and college systems, giving us a comprehensive picture of NYC high school graduates' pathways through college.

Currently, our data only allow us to examine post-secondary degree attainment within four years of starting college for the 2006 cohort of on-time high school graduates. As we integrate NSC data covering more recent years, we plan to update the analyses in this report.

Finally, to conduct analyses about the selectivity of colleges attended by NYC high school graduates, we integrated selectivity ratings for almost all four-year institutions in the U.S. from the 2011 Barron's Profile of American Colleges into our database.

Sample To present a rich picture of key post-secondary outcomes, New York City Goes to College: A First Look examines patterns of college enrollment, persistence, and completion for three distinct groups of NYC public school students: first-time 9th graders, on-time high school graduates (a subset of firsttime 9th graders), and immediate college enrollees (a subset of on-time high school graduates).

First-Time 9th Graders

We examined seven cohorts of first-time 9th graders entering NYC public high schools (school years 2002-2003 to 2008-2009). A "first-time 9th grader" is a student who enrolled in a NYC public high school as a 9th grader in either the fall or spring semester of a given school year and was not enrolled in a NYC high school at any time during the previous two years. This means that we did not include

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students who enrolled in a NYC public high school after their 9th grade year. We also excluded students who transferred out of the NYC system after 9th grade, and students who attended a special education high school (District 75), an alternative high school (District 79), a charter high school (District 84), or a school with fewer than 15 9th graders in a given year.

Our analysis of first-time 9th graders allowed us to examine whether patterns of college enrollment ran parallel with growth in on-time high school graduation rates.

On-Time High School Graduates

We defined a student as an "on-time high school graduate" if he or she graduated with an Advanced Regents, Regents, or Local diploma by October after his or her expected fourth year of high school. Throughout this report, the term "high school graduates" refers only to these on-time high school graduates of NYC public schools. Calculations do not include students who transferred into or out of a NYC public high school after 9th grade.

We focused on this group (as opposed to including five-year or six-year high school graduates or GED recipients) for three reasons. First, it allowed us to examine the college-going patterns of more cohorts than if we had included students who took extra time to finish high school.1 Second, it enabled us to track more semesters of college for each cohort. Third, we do not have college enrollment information for all students who received a GED.

Looking at high school graduates, as opposed first-time 9th graders, allows us to compare college enrollment rates in NYC to national rates, which are generally expressed as a percentage of high school graduates. (Note that precise definitions of high school graduates vary across different information sources.)

Immediate College Enrollees

An "immediate college enrollee" meets the definition of immediate enrollment on page 5.

For most of the report, we examine patterns of college persistence and degree attainment for immediate college enrollees. This allows us to compare college persistence and degree attainment rates in NYC to rates seen elsewhere in the U.S., which are generally expressed as a percentage of first-time college enrollees.

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Key Outcomes and Measures

High School Diploma Type

During the period covered in this paper, the New York State Education Department (NYSED) increased the requirements for a Regents diploma and phased out the Local diploma (NYC DOE, 2014). See Appendix B for more details on New York State diploma requirements.

Regents Diploma: Students who entered 9th grade in 2012 were required to earn a minimum of 44 (semester) units of credit and to pass a minimum of five end-of-course Regents examinations with a score of 65 or higher.

Advanced Regents Diploma: Students who entered 9th grade in 2012 were required to meet all the requirements for a Regents diploma, and pass additional Regents exams in math, science, and a language other than English.

Local Diploma: The Local diploma did not require passing scores on any Regents examinations for students entering 9th grade prior to 2005. Students who entered 9th grade in 2005 had to pass two out of five required Regents examinations; students who entered 9th grade in 2006 had to pass three out of five; and students who entered 9th grade in 2007 had to pass four out of five. Beginning with students who entered 9th grade in 2008, with a few exceptions, students had to earn a Regents diploma to graduate from high school in New York State.

New York State Aspirational Performance Measure (APM)

In 2011, NYSED released a state-specific benchmark for college readiness--the "Regents-Based Math and English Aspirational Performance Measure" (APM). The APM is defined as earning a New York State Regents (or Advanced Regents) diploma and receiving a score of 80 or higher on a math Regents exam and a score of 75 or higher on the English Regents exam. Students who meet the APM are automatically qualified to enter a CUNY four-year college and exempt from developmental coursework.

Immediate College Enrollment

This report looks at "immediate college enrollment," defined as entering a post-secondary institution (full- or part-time status) between August 1st and December 31st of the same year a student graduated from high school. The report focuses on immediate fall enrollment because the vast majority of NYC high school graduates who go to college enter in the fall. For example, among 2006 on-time high school graduates, 83 percent of first-time college enrollment within five years of graduating high school occurred in the immediate fall semester. Prior research has shown that students who delay college enrollment are less likely to finish (Bozick & DeLuca, 2005). Thus, immediate entry appears

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to be a better benchmark for a successful transition into college than enrollment over an extended time period.

If a student was enrolled concurrently in more than one post-secondary institution, we identified his or her `initial institution' as the college where he or she was enrolled for more days. If a student attended multiple institutions for the same number of days, we used the college where the student had the highest level of enrollment (e.g., four-year over two-year institution). If both schools had the same level of enrollment, we used the institution in which the student had a more intensive enrollment status (e.g., full-time over part-time).

Persistence

"Persistence" refers to continued enrollment regardless of the specific college attended. Persistence is defined in two ways in this report:

1. Continued enrollment in any post-secondary institution in each semester (fall/spring2) after initial enrollment, including the semester where a student obtains a degree, and continued enrollment after attaining a degree. This method takes into account the continued enrollment of students who immediately transfer to a bachelor's program after receiving an associate's degree. This definition is used in Figures 2 and 11 and Tables 1, 2, and 3 in the full report, as well as Appendix Tables C-6, C-8, C-9, and C-12.

2. Continued enrollment in any post-secondary institution in each semester (fall/spring) after initial enrollment until (and not including) the semester when the first post-secondary degree is received. This is a more traditional approach, which does not take into account continued enrollment after receipt of a two-year degree. This definition is used in Figures 3, 6, & 10 as well as Appendix Tables C10 and C-11.

Degree Attainment/College Completion

This report presents degree attainment data for 2006 on-time high school graduates who enrolled immediately in college and received at least one two-year or four-year degree by August 31st, 2010 (i.e., four years after initial enrollment).

Level of Initial Post-Secondary Institution Attended

The NSC categorizes post-secondary institutions by the highest level of degree offered (i.e., less than two-year, two-year, or four-year). The NSC does not indicate the level of degree program pursued by students. This could be problematic if many colleges classified as four-year institutions had significant numbers of students enrolled in certificate or associate's degree programs.

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In fact, four CUNY schools defined by the NSC as four-year institutions served a high proportion of students in certificate or associate's degree programs (see Table A-1). This means that NSC data categorizes all students at these schools as attending a four-year institution, even if they are in a twoyear program. To address this potential misclassification, which would affect a significant number of students in our sample, we re-categorized Medgar Evers College, the NYC College of Technology, and the College of Staten Island as two-year institutions because of the large proportion of enrollees who entered two-year programs.

Table A-1: Proportion of First-Time Freshmen Pursuing an Associate's Degree or Certificate at Each CUNY College

Proportion of First-Time Freshmen Pursuing an Associate's Degree or Certificate

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Four-Year Colleges

Baruch

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Brooklyn City College of New

York

1.9

2.3

1.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Hunter

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

John Jay

63.1

54.4

42.1

42.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Lehman

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Medgar Eversa

78.8

72.8

77.1

86.3

83.0

92.3

93.0

NYCCTa

94.3

95.6

94.7

94.4

94.0

93.8

91.5

Queens

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Staten Islanda

79.9

81.4

78.5

74.6

69.2

68.7

68.6

York

0.1

1.3

0.4

0.7

0.1

0.4

0.2

Professional Studies

n/a 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

n/a

n/a

Total Four-Year College

38.2

36.3

34.9

37.8

31.0

32.3

31.1

Community Colleges

BMCC

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Bronx

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Hostos

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Kingsborough

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

LaGuardia New Community

College/ Guttman

100.0 N/A

100.0 N/A

100.0 N/A

100.0 N/A

100.0 N/A

100.0 N/A

100.0 100.0

Queensborough Total Community College

100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0

Total CUNY

63.4

63.0

63.4

66.6

65.7

67.7

66.8

Source: CUNY (2012 & 2013). Note: a Due to the high proportion of students at these schools pursuing associate's degrees, we classified these schools as two-year institutions in this report.

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CUNY Affiliation of Initial College Attended

The CUNY system includes 11 four-year institutions (in which the highest undergraduate degree offered is a four-year degree) and seven community colleges (in which the highest degree offered is a two-year degree). As in other studies that examine CUNY enrollment (Treschan & Mehrotra, 2012), we categorized five CUNY four-year colleges as "top-tier" colleges (Baruch, Hunter, Brooklyn, and Queens Colleges, and the City College of New York) and three as "second-tier" colleges (York, Lehman, and John Jay Colleges). As mentioned above, we re-categorized three fouryear institutions as two-year schools (Medgar Evers College, the NYC College of Technology, and the College of Staten Island). Finally, CUNY has seven community colleges (Borough of Manhattan, Bronx, Hostos, Kingsborough, LaGuardia, Guttman,3 and Queensborough Community Colleges).

Selectivity of Initial Post-Secondary Institution Attended

Barron's Profiles of American Colleges rates four-year institutions using a combination of incoming students' average SAT/ACT scores, GPA and class rank, and the percentage of applicants admitted. In this report, we used a modified categorization of the Barron's ratings of four-year institutions, which has been also used by other researchers (Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009; Roderick et al., 2008, 2009, & 2011; Smith, Pender, & Howell 2013). Specifically, we grouped four-year institutions into five categories based on their 2011 Barron's ratings: very selective, selective, somewhat selective, non-selective, and other (see Table A-2).

Table A-2: Modified Barron's College Selectivity Categories (2011)

Ratings Used in this Report

Barron's Selectivity

Rating

Most competitive

Very selective

Highly competitive

Selective

Very competitive

Somewhat selective

Competitive

Non-selective Less competitive

Barron's Definition

Average freshman ranks in the top 20 percent of high school class; GPA of A to B+; median SAT in 655-800 range; median ACT above 29. Admit less than 33 percent of applicants. Average freshman ranks in the top 20-35 percent of high school class; GPA of B+ to B; median SAT from 620-654; median ACT 27-28. Admit 33-50 percent of applicants. Average freshman ranks in the top 35-50 percent of high school class; GPA no less than B-; median SAT of 573-619; median ACT 24-26. Admit 50-75 percent of applicants. Average freshman ranks in the top 50-65 percent of high school class; minimum required GPA ranges from B- to C; median SAT 500-572; median ACT 21-23. Admit 75-85 percent of applicants. Average freshman ranks in the top 65 percent of high school class; admit students with GPAs generally below C; median SAT below 500; median ACT below 21.

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