THE 2030 SPIKE - Central Intelligence Agency
THE 2030 SPIKE
COUNTDOWN TO GLOBAL CATASTROPHE
Colin Mason
London ? Sterling, VA
First published in the UK and USA in 2003 by Earthscan Publications Ltd
Reprinted 2004
Copyright ? Colin Mason, 2003
All rights reserved
ISBN: 1-84407-018-2
Typesetting by MapSet Ltd, Gateshead, UK Printed and bound in the UK by Creative Print and Design (Wales), Ebbw Vale Cover design by Ruth Bateson
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Earthscan publishes in association with WWF-UK and the International Institute for Environment and Development
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Mason, Colin, 1926The 2030 spike : countdown to global catastrophe / Colin Mason. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-84407-018-2 (hbk.) 1. Twenty-first century--Forecasts. 2. Environmental policy. 3. Natural
resources. 4. Social prediction. 5. Catastrophical, The. I. Title: Two thousand thirty spike. II. Title: Two thousand and thirty spike. III. Title: Twenty-thirty spike. IV. Title.
CB161.M384 2003 303.49--dc21
2003006476
This book is printed on elemental chlorine-free paper
CONTENTS
About the Author
v
PART ONE: CRISIS MODE
1 The Drivers
3
2 Running Out of Fuel: The Coming Energy Crunch
9
3 Population and Poverty
21
4 Climate: Too Hot or Too Cold?
29
5 Famines: Food and Water
41
6 One World?
53
7 The Fourth Horseman
62
PART TWO: DIRECTIONS
8 Which Way Science?
75
9 In the Genes: New Plants ? and People?
83
10 The Values of the Sea
94
11 Multinationals: Good Business or Bad?
101
12 The Trouble with Money
110
PART THREE: UPGRADING THE INDIVIDUAL
13 The Pursuit of Happiness
123
14 Love, Family and Freedom
130
15 Habitat: The Dilemma of the Cities
135
16 Making Education Work
145
17 Health and Wealth
153
18 Religion: The Cement of Society?
161
iv THE 2030 SPIKE
PART FOUR: THE NEW SOCIETY?
19 The Mechanics of Change
171
20 Automation and Employment
178
21 Travelling Less?
186
22 Working Online
192
23 The Information Overload
199
24 The Toxic Culture
205
25 Running the Show
211
26 Conclusion: World to Come
220
Notes
230
Index
244
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