The Effects of Nuclear War - Princeton University
[Pages:154]The Effects of Nuclear War May 1979
NTIS order #PB-296946
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 79-600080
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D C, 20402
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Foreword
This assessment was made in response to a request from the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations to examine the effects of nuclear war on the populations and economies of the United States and the Soviet Union. It is intended, in the terms of the Committee's request, to "put what have been abstract measures of strategic power into more comprehensible terms. "
The study examines the full range of effects that nuclear war would have on civilians: direct effects from blast and radiation; and indirect effects from economic, social, and politicai disruption. Particular attention is devoted to the ways in which the impact of a nuclear war would extend over time. Two of the study's principal findings are that conditions would continue to get worse for some time after a nuclear war ended, and that the effects of nuclear war that cannot be calculated in advance are at least as important as those which analysts attempt to quantify.
This report provides essential background for a range of issues relating to strategic weapons and foreign policy. It translates what is generally known about the effects of nuclear weapons into the best available estimates about the impact on society if such weapons were used. It calls attention to the very wide range of impacts that nuclear weapons would have on a complex industrial society, and to the extent of uncertainty regarding these impacts.
Several years ago, OTA convened a panel of distinguished scientists to examine the effects of a limited nuclear war. The report and testimony of that panel, which were published by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, remain valid. That panel recommended that a more thorough and comprehensive study of the effects of nuclear war be undertaken. This study is such an effort.
The Director of this assessment was Dr. Peter Sharfman, Group Manager for National Security Studies. OTA is grateful for the assistance of its Nuclear War Effects Advisory Panel, chaired by Dr. David S. Saxon, President of the University of California, and for the assistance of the Congressional Research Service, the Department of Defense, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, and the Central Intel Intelligence Agency. 1 t shouId be understood, however, that OTA assumes full responsibility for this report and that it does not necessarily represent the views of any of these agencies or of the individual members of the Advisory Panel.
DANIEL DE SIMONE Acting Director
Nuclear War Effects Project Staff
Lionel S. Johns, Assistant Director Energy, Materials, and Global Security Division Peter Sharfman, National Security Group Manager and Project Director Jonathan Medalia (on detail from Congressional/ Research Service) Robert W. Vining (under contract with Systems Science and Software)
Kevin Lewis Gloria Proctor
Supplemental OTA Staff
Henry Kelly
Marvin Ott
Consultants
Advanced Research and Applications Corporation Analytical Assessments Corporation General Research Corporation Santa Fe Corporation Systems Science and Software
Stuart Goldman Nan Randall George R. Rodericks Ronald Stivers
OTA Publishing Staff
John C. Holmes, Publishing Officer
Kathie S. Boss
Joanne Heming
iv
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Nuclear War Effects Project Advisory Panel
David S. Saxon, Chairman President, University of California
Donald G. Brennan Director of National Securit y Studies Hudson Institute Inc.
Charles Cooper Department of Biology San Diego State University
Russell E. Dougherty General, USAF(retired)
Sidney Drell Deputy Director, Stanford linear Accelerator Center Stanford University
Richard Garwin IBM Fellow IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
Gene R. La Rocque Rear Admiral, USN [retired) Director, Center for Defense /formation
Cecil Leith Director, Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction Division National Center for Atmospheric Research
J, David Linebaugh Washington, D.C.
J. Carson Mark Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory
James V. Neel Chairman, Department of Human Genetics University of Michigan Medical School University of Michigan
Jack Ruina Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Harriet Scott McLean, Va.
Huston Smith Syracuse University
John Steinbruner Director of Foreign Policy Studies Brookings Institution
Jeremy Stone Director, Federation of American Scientists
Hilary Whitaker Director, Emergency Preparedness Project National Governors Association
The Advisory Panel provided advice and constructive criticism throughout this project. The panel does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility y for the report and the accuracy of its contents.
Contents
Chapter
Page
1. Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Il. A Nuclear Weapon Over Detroit or Leningrad: A Tutorial on the Effects of Nuclear Weapons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Ill. Civil Defense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
IV. Three Attack Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
V. Other Long-Term Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Appendixes: A. Letter From Senate Foreign Relations Committee Requesting the Study... 119 B. Strategic Forces Assumed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 C. Charlottesville: A Fictional Account by Nan Randall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
D. Summary of Contractor Report on Executive Branch Studies . . . . . . . . . . . 139 E. Suggestions for Further Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 F, Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Volume ll--Working Papers:
1. Examination of the Direct Effects of Nuciear War (CRC Carp).* 2. Small Attacks on U.S. and Soviet Energy Production and Distribution Systems
(Santa Fe Corp). 3. Long-Term Health Effects From Nuclear Attack Radiation Exposures (Aracor) 4. The Effects of Nuclear War Economic Damage (Analytical Assessment Corp.)*
NOTE: A Iimited number of copies of the working papers will be available for congressiorral use from OTA by the end of June 1979 Others can obtain the working papers from the National Technical Information Service about the beginning of August 1979
* Indicates that a classified version is also available to qualified requesters
vii
Chapter
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Chapter I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Page
Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Uncertainties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . 10
TABLES
Page
l. Summary of Cases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2. Summary of Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
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