Death y Amazon Indices
The Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Indices
On the following pages, we update the performance figures for the Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Indices. Since a huge outside day reversal on July 27th earnings, AMZN has been a painful long. Support at the $940 level ($6 below current prices) has been consistent, but the stock has carved out a multimonth head-and-shoulders that should give long entry pause. While the stock has been unable to make new highs, Amazon continues to dominate public conversation with its search for a second headquarters given capacity constraints in Seattle.
Below is an updated chart of the cumulative returns of the Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index versus the S&P 1500. As shown, while the S&P 1500 is just off all-time highs, the "Death By Amazon" Index on a market cap weighting is right near multi-year lows. On the following page, we provide an update of the performance of the Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal Weight Index, which weights constituents equally as opposed to by market cap. Because we weight large, more stable stocks like Wal-Mart lower in that index, its volatility is higher and it's generally easier to get a feel for overall retail performance from it. On page three, we have updated two-year performances for each stock in the index, as well as its current weight in the index and daily return correlation to AMZN.
Bespoke publishes the "Death By Amazon" Indices as a way to track performance of the companies most affected by the rise of AMZN. Companies included must be direct retailers with a limited online presence (or core business based on physical retailing locations), a member of either the Retail industry of the S&P 1500 Index or a member of the S&P Retail Select Index, and rely on third party brands. We view these attributes as the best expression of AMZN's threat to traditional retail. The index is designed as both a performance benchmark and idea generation tool for our clients. Indices are published monthly with market cap weightings and equal weightings. We also discuss our "Amazon Survivors" Indices starting on page three.
Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index: Cumulative Returns (%)
100
Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index: +21.3%
80
S&P 1500: +80.1%
60
40
20
0
-20
Page 1 of 6
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
? Copyright 2017, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal Weight Index: Cumulative Returns (%)
100 90 80
70 60 50 40
30
20
Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal Weight Index: +28.6%
10
S&P 1500: +81.2%
0
-10
Outperformance of AMZN vs Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal-Weight Index
500 400 300 200 100
0 -100
Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Indices
Standard
Inception
2/6/2012
Weighting
Market Cap
Equity Type Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small
Cap, Micro Cap
Constituents 63
Avg Market Cap $12.0 bn as of 9/25/17
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Industry Group Retail
Attributes
Consumer retail, Reliance on
3rd party brands, Limited
online presence
Equal Weight
Inception
2/6/2012
Weighting
Equal
Equity Type Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small
Cap, Micro Cap
Constituents 63
Avg Market Cap $12.0 bn as of 9/25/17
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Industry Group Retail
Attributes
Consumer retail, Reliance on
3rd party brands, Limited
online presence
B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 Page 2 of 6
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
Ticker AAN ASNA BBBY BBY BGFV BIG BKE BKS BNED BURL CAB CAL CONN COST CVS DDS DG DKS DLTR DSW FINL FIVE FL FRAN FRED GCO GME GNC HIBB HSNI HVT IMKTA JCP JWN KIRK KR KSS M MIK ODP OLLI PSMT RAD ROST SBH SCVL SFM SFS SHLD SMRT SSI SVU TGT TJX TLRD TUES ULTA VSI WBA WMK WMT WSM ZUMZ
AMZN
Name Aaron's Ascena Retail Bed Bath & Beyond Best Buy Big 5 Sporting Big Lots The Buckle Barnes & Noble Barnes & Noble Ed Burlington Stores Cabela's Caleres Conn's Costco Wholesale CVS Caremark Dillard's Dollar General Dick's Sporting Dollar Tree DSW Finish Line Five Below Foot Locker Francesca's Fred's Genesco Gamestop GNC Holdings Hibbett Sports HSN Haverty Furniture Ingles Markets J.C. Penney Nordstrom Kirkland's Kroger Kohl's Macy's Michaels Office Depot Ollie's Bargain PriceSmart Rite Aid Ross Stores Sally Beauty Shoe Carnival Sporuts Smart & Final Sears Holdings Stein Mart Stage Stores Supervalu Target TJ Maxx Tailored Brands Tuesday Morning Ulta Beauty Vitamin Shoppe Walgreen Weis Markets Wal-Mart Williams-Sonoma Zumiez
Amazon
Price 39.03 2.10 22.51 53.90 7.35 49.51 15.95 7.25 6.28 89.78 61.47 29.62 22.80 161.29 79.63 57.53 77.66 26.87 84.62 20.50 9.73 50.37 33.60 7.01 6.81 25.70 20.01 9.25 13.65 39.20 24.40 24.50 4.01 46.88 10.61 20.15 46.07 21.53 21.24 4.37 45.80 87.60 2.39 60.89 18.95 21.14 18.75 7.30 7.11 1.28 1.91 21.27 58.99 72.45 13.56 2.40 219.17 5.35 78.41 42.61 79.53 46.78 16.45
955.10
Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Indices Components
Market Cap (mln $) 2,760.47 409.58 3,224.38 16,126.05 160.76 2,101.81 779.07 526.56 292.13 6,192.31 4,237.10 1,272.65 711.52 70,740.72 80,949.05 1,669.61 21,221.29 2,938.67 20,041.80 1,647.16 391.09 2,780.41 4,166.32 257.51 259.31 511.92 2,027.16 633.33 280.37 2,053.60 519.35 496.36 1,246.07 7,793.32 169.88 17,923.87 7,766.47 6,557.15 3,844.15 2,265.44 2,812.68 2,662.82 2,517.37 23,478.70 2,489.53 359.80 2,542.07 540.35 763.94 61.34 52.70 815.86 32,222.21 46,098.07 667.09 108.35 13,463.75 127.28 83,906.27 1,146.14
237,572.15 3,981.15 415.04
Current Weight 0.36% 0.05% 0.42% 2.13% 0.02% 0.28% 0.10% 0.07% 0.04% 0.82% 0.56% 0.17% 0.09% 9.32% 10.67% 0.22% 2.80% 0.39% 2.64% 0.22% 0.05% 0.37% 0.55% 0.03% 0.03% 0.07% 0.27% 0.08% 0.04% 0.27% 0.07% 0.07% 0.16% 1.03% 0.02% 2.36% 1.02% 0.86% 0.51% 0.30% 0.37% 0.35% 0.33% 3.09% 0.33% 0.05% 0.34% 0.07% 0.10% 0.01% 0.01% 0.11% 4.25% 6.08% 0.09% 0.01% 1.77% 0.02% 11.06% 0.15% 31.31% 0.52% 0.05%
Performance (%)
Vs Bespoke "Death By Amazon"
1 Year Return
Standard Index Eql Wgt Index
72.49
91.13
85.31
-78.74
-60.09
-65.92
-39.45
-20.81
-26.63
86.52
105.17
99.34
-41.27
-22.62
-28.45
-5.70
12.94
7.12
-48.17
-29.53
-35.35
-36.26
-17.62
-23.44
-41.27
-22.63
-28.45
8.42
27.07
21.24
5.10
23.75
17.92
-7.17
11.47
5.65
168.14
186.79
180.96
-1.37
17.28
11.45
-20.40
-1.75
-7.58
-16.88
1.77
-4.06
-16.45
2.20
-3.63
-55.54
-36.89
-42.72
-21.85
-3.20
-9.03
-25.79
-7.15
-12.97
-57.98
-39.33
-45.16
4.86
23.50
17.68
-51.99
-33.34
-39.17
-48.16
-29.51
-35.34
-53.54
-34.90
-40.72
-68.05
-49.41
-55.23
-32.26
-13.62
-19.44
-53.94
-35.29
-41.12
-71.61
-52.96
-58.79
-19.40
-0.75
-6.58
20.94
39.58
33.76
-33.49
-14.85
-20.67
-64.55
-45.91
-51.73
-15.69
2.96
-2.87
-29.96
-11.31
-17.14
-30.07
-11.42
-17.25
-15.25
3.39
-2.43
-49.10
-30.45
-36.28
-24.62
-5.97
-11.80
17.14
35.78
29.96
58.21
76.86
71.03
-2.65
15.99
10.17
-70.78
-52.13
-57.96
-8.61
10.03
4.21
-36.07
-17.43
-23.25
-42.42
-23.78
-29.60
4.91
23.55
17.72
-43.00
-24.35
-30.18
-43.68
-25.04
-30.86
-87.09
-68.45
-74.27
-70.33
-51.68
-57.51
-41.78
-23.14
-28.96
-19.66
-1.02
-6.84
-10.01
8.63
2.81
-28.48
-9.83
-15.66
-76.67
-58.02
-63.85
-13.04
5.61
-0.22
-79.15
-60.51
-66.33
-1.46
17.18
11.36
-13.15
5.49
-0.33
10.18
28.82
23.00
-18.33
0.32
-5.51
-30.51
-11.86
-17.69
153,955.05
n/a
27.09
45.73
39.91
Correlation to AMZN 0.11 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.02 0.07 0.02 0.14 0.06 0.12 0.14 -0.02 0.07 0.17 0.16 0.00 0.10 0.05 0.16 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.07 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.14 0.10 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.01 -0.06 0.04 0.10 0.07 -0.07 -0.01 0.11 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.10 0.15 -0.04 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.03 -0.02 0.04 -0.09 0.00 0.16 -0.03 0.18 0.15 0.09 0.23 0.06 0.09 0.11 -0.03
n/a
B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 Page 3 of 6
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
In our Chart of the Day dated 8/22/17 (link), we introduced a new version of our Death By Amazon indices: the Amazon Survivors Indices. The new indices are meant to capture retail stocks that we believe stand a good chance of withstanding pressure from Amazon: those with their own brands, markets where Amazon is not as much of a competitive threat such as auto-related products, or specialty stores that aren't categories where Amazon can compete effectively. Below we show the returns versus those of the S&P 1500 since index inception. On page 5, we show index statistics; we also show the equal-weight version of the index, which has outperformed the market cap weighted index quite significantly. We also note that while Amazon has outperformed the "Amazon Survivors" index quite significantly over the past year or so, since mid-summer, the "Amazon Survivors" index has started to pick up steam. On page 6 we include a full list of index members.
Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Market Cap Index: Cumulative Returns (%)
20
15
Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Index: -6.2%
S&P 1500: +15.1%
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 Page 4 of 6
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
Standard
Equal Weight
Inception
2/6/2012
Weighting
Market Cap
Equity Type Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small
Cap, Micro Cap
Constituents 46
Avg Market Cap $9.7 bn as of 9/25/17
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Industry Group Retail
Attributes
Specialty retail, retail secure
from Amazon competition,
own-brand retail
Inception
2/6/2012
Weighting
Equal
Equity Type Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small
Cap, Micro Cap
Constituents 46
Avg Market Cap $9.7 bn as of 9/25/17
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Industry Group Retail
Attributes
Specialty retail, retail secure
from Amazon competition,
own-brand retail
Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: Cumulative Returns (%)
20
10
0
-10 Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: +2.5% S&P 1500: +15.1%
-20
Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: AMZN Relative Performance (%)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 Page 5 of 6
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
................
................
In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.
To fulfill the demand for quickly locating and searching documents.
It is intelligent file search solution for home and business.