HILLARY CLINTON, WOMEN VOTERS AND THE 2008 ELECTION

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release Thursday, July 19, 2007

6:30 P.M. EDT

HILLARY CLINTON, WOMEN VOTERS AND THE 2008 ELECTION July 9-17, 2007

With a woman as the current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, the 2008 presidential election could result in an historic first ? a woman president.

Hillary Clinton continues to be the Democratic front-runner, and many voters think she can win in November. Voters think Clinton would be effective at handling health care and dealing with foreign countries, but many are skeptical about her ability to deal with an international crisis and a large minority is dubious about her in the role of commander in chief ? though most voters acknowledge her strong leadership skills. On nearly every question asked about Clinton, there is a significant gender gap, with women holding much more positive views of her than men.

Although her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has played a more visible role in her campaign in recent weeks, half of voters think her marriage to him will not impact her support one way or the other.

This CBS News/New York Times Poll included additional interviews with women (which were then weighted to their proper proportion in the total sample), to facilitate a deeper exploration of women's views on the election, and on Hillary Clinton in particular as potentially the first female President.

CAN SHE WIN?

Most voters view Clinton as a strong contender for President next November, if she wins the Democratic nomination. 63% think it very or somewhat likely she will win, and just 35% think that it is not likely. Majorities of both men and women think she will win.

LIKELY CLINTON WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER 2008?

(Among registered voters)

All Women

Men

Very/somewhat likely

63% 65%

59%

Not very/not at all likely

35 32

40

Even most Republicans think she can win next year. 53% of Republicans think it is likely she will win if nominated (as do 77% of Democrats), while 45% think it is not likely.

CLINTON AND ISSUES

The war in Iraq tops the list of issues that voters say will be important in their vote for president, followed by terrorism, the economy and health care. Among women voters, health care ranks second, after the war in Iraq.

And perceptions of how Clinton would handle health care are quite positive ? despite her 1993 failure on this issue. 74% of voters think it is likely she would make good decisions about health care, while 25% think that isn't likely. Although there is a gender gap, a majority of men also acknowledge this about Clinton.

LIKELY CLINTON WOULD MAKE GOOD DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH CARE?

(Among registered voters)

All Women

Men

Very/somewhat likely

74% 80%

67%

Not very/not at all likely

25 18

31

But voters show concern about Clinton's ability to deal with an international crisis. 42% are confident in how she would handle one, but even more, 52%, are uneasy. Men clearly doubt her ability to do so; 58% would be uneasy, and just 37% would be confident. Women are divided.

CLINTON HANDLING AN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS

(Among registered voters)

All Women

Men

Confident

42% 47%

37%

Uneasy

52 46

58

A majority of voters overall thinks it likely Clinton would be an effective commander in chief, although 41% think that isn't likely. Again, men are more skeptical about Clinton's skills; nearly half say that it is not likely she would be effective in that role.

CLINTON AS EFFECTIVE COMMANDER IN CHIEF?

(Among registered voters)

All Women

Men

Very/somewhat likely

58% 63%

52%

Not very/not at all likely

41 35

47

Voters do think it is likely that Clinton would make good decisions in dealing with foreign countries. 68% say that is likely, while 30% think it is not. Even a majority of men think it likely.

LIKELY CLINTON WOULD MAKE GOOD DECISIONS

DEALING WITH FOREIGN COUNTRIES?

(Among registered voters)

All Women

Men

Very/somewhat likely

68% 72%

64%

Not very/not at all likely

30 25

35

The most pressing issue of the day is, as it has been for many months now, the war in Iraq. 41% of voters believe Clinton's vote authorizing the war was a mistake, 53% think it was not. But those who see it as a mistake don't feel overwhelmingly that Clinton needs to apologize; they are divided, with half saying she ought to, and half saying that isn't necessary.

WAS CLINTON'S VOTE ON WAR IN IRAQ A MISTAKE?

(Among registered voters)

Dem. Primary

All Women

Men

Voters

Yes

41% 45%

37%

58%

No

53 47

58

37

Among Democratic primary voters, 58% think Clinton's vote in favor of the Iraq war was a mistake, but they are divided on whether she should apologize or not. Men are less likely than women to think her vote to authorize the war was a mistake.

Many voters, both male and female, think that Hillary Clinton has worked hard as a Senator from New York. 46% of voters say she has, and just 7% say she has not. But many ? 46% -- aren't sure. More women than men think she has worked hard.

Clinton is clearly viewed as a liberal by voters. 53% say she is, and 29% describe her as a moderate. Men (60%) are much more apt to describe her as a liberal than women are (45%).

VIEWS OF HILLARY CLINTON, BARACK OBAMA AND RUDY GIULIANI

In most national polls, including this one, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack for her party's nomination for President among likely Democratic primary voters. Her nearest competitor at this point in a three-way contest is Illinois Senator Barack Obama. And the frontrunner for the Republican nomination is former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS DEM NOMINEE?

(Among Democratic Primary Voters)

Clinton

43%

Obama

24

Edwards

16

IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS REP NOMINEE?

(Among Republican Primary Voters)

Giuliani

33%

Thompson

25

McCain

15

Romney

8

Clinton, Obama and Giuliani are all viewed as strong leaders, with the largest number of registered voters saying this about Clinton. Obama

has a slight lead over Clinton when it comes to believing that a candidate shares their moral values, while Giuliani trails there.

Clinton falls behind on a question about believability, however. More voters think she is likely to say what she thinks people want to hear than say that about either Obama or Giuliani. For each candidate, just over four in ten thinks they say what they believe. Less than one in 10 voters don't have an opinion of Clinton on these questions; far more voters (as many as one in 4) have yet to form an opinion of Obama and just over one in 10 don't have an opinion of Giuliani.

CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS (Among registered voters)

Is a strong leader Not strong leader

Clinton 75% 20

Obama Giuliani

62%

71%

14

18

Shares moral values of most Americans

58%

Does not share moral values

33

63%

48%

12

34

Says what they believe Says what people want to hear

42%

46%

45%

51

32

42

There are significant gender gaps in how two of these three candidates are viewed. Women hold more positive views of Clinton than men do, while the opposite is true of Rudy Giuliani ? men view him more positively than women do.

CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS (Among registered voters)

Hillary Clinton: Strong leader Shares moral values of most Americans

Women

Men

82%

68%

60%

55%

Says what she believes Says what people want to hear

47%

36%

45

58

Barack Obama:

Strong leader

67%

57%

Shares moral values of most Americans

63%

62%

Says what he believes Says what people want to hear

49%

44%

27

37

Rudy Giuliani:

Strong leader

68%

75%

Shares moral values of most Americans

43%

53%

Says what he believes Says what people want to hear

41%

49%

42

41

Not surprisingly, and by a wide margin, more voters think Hillary Clinton understands the needs and problems of working women than think Obama or Giuliani does. Most voters view Clinton as a good role model for women, and most say that Obama is a good role model for blacks.

Opinions of Sen. Hillary Clinton remain divided among registered voters overall, but women voters view her more favorably than men do. In fact, more women view Clinton positively than they do her Democratic rival Barack Obama and the Republican frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani's favorable rating among men is the highest of any of the three candidates.

VIEWS OF CANDIDATES

(Among Registered Voters)

Clinton

Obama

Men Women Men Women

Favorable

34% 46%

33% 41%

Not favorable

47 33

28 16

Undecided/

Haven't heard enough 18 21

40 43

Giuliani Men Women 41% 37% 29 23

30 40

Clinton is viewed most favorably by women age 30-44, those who are currently single, liberal, and women who identify themselves as Democrats. Obama is viewed positively by these groups as well. 77% of African American women have a favorable opinion of Clinton, and a majority (65%) of this group also views Barack Obama favorably. Obama does particularly well among women who are college graduates, while Clinton does better with women who are not college graduates.

Total women

FAVORABLE VIEWS OF CANDIDATES

(Among Women Voters)

Clinton

Obama

46%

41%

Giuliani 37%

Age 18-29

45%

30-44

49%

45-64

46%

65 and over

41%

45%

39%

40%

41%

41%

35%

39%

32%

White women

39%

Black women

77%

39%

39%

65%

19%

Working women

47%

45%

41%

Married women

39%

Unmarried women

54%

39%

41%

44%

32%

Women w/ kids < 18 45%

41%

41%

< College grad

46%

College grad

45

37

35

51

42

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