Evaluating Theories of Crime



Evaluating Theories of Crime

What is a “Theory?”

A statement of set of statements about the relationships between 2 or more events

In criminology?

A theory predicts what will happen, not how the world should be

How do you know a “good theory” when you see one?

Akers’ 6 criteria for evaluating a theory

1. Logical Consistency

2. Scope

3. Parsimony

4. Testability

5. Fit with Empirical Evidence

6. Usefulness of Policy Implications

Logical Consistency

Clearly Defined Concepts

Concept = symbol/label that we apply to an abstract image

Examples?

Concepts must fit in a logical manner

BAD LOGIC: All crime is caused by imprisonment

SCOPE (not the mouthwash)

DEPENDENT variable

How “general” is your explanation?

Specific forms of crime/deviance?

All crime?

All crime, deviance, sin, and recklessness?

All else being equal, “Wider is Better”

Parsimony

INDEPENDENT (predictor) variables

How complex is your explanation?

Parsimony: Low self-control is single cause of crime

Not: Crime caused by a combination of poverty, inequality, average daily temperature, intelligence, hair color, weight, daily stress…

All else being equal, more parsimony is better!

Testability

A valid theory can be falsified

Non-falsifiable theories?

Tautological arguments (crime causes crime)

Vague and open-ended statements (Freud)

Must be observe/measure concepts (little green men)

Is the theory correct?

Survive empirical scrutiny

Few theories are entirely correct or false

To what degree is the theory supported?

Preponderance of evidence support?

Incorrect theories must be modified or discarded

Policy Implication

All crime theories attempt to identify the “causes” of crime.

Can the causes be reversed?

Does the theory translate into practice?

Example: Marxist theory of crime

Flow Chart for Evaluation

Testability

Logical Consistency? ( No ( Throw out theory

( Yes ( Empirical Evidence Support? ( No (Stop here)

( Yes

Evaluate:

Scope

Parsimony

Policy Imp.

................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download