BENEDICTINE UNIVERSITY



BENEDICTINE UNIVERSITY

Course Outline MGT 251 STATISTICS II Spring, 2014

Text: Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel, 4th edition, Anderson, Sweeney & Williams,

South-Western/Cengage, 2012. ISBN: 978-0-538-47975-2 (hard cover)

Aplia interactive learning/assignment system.

TI-83 or TI-84 calculator also required.

Course Prerequisites: MATH 105 (Finite Math I) or MATH 110 (College Algebra)

Instructor: Jeffrey M. Madura, 160 Scholl Hall Office Hours: Announced in class or see web page at

B.A., University of Notre Dame

M.B.A., Northwestern University e-mail: jmadura@ben.edu

C.P.A., State of Illinois

Course Description: This is a course in introductory statistics. The orientation is toward applications and problem-solving, not mathematical theory. The instructor intends that students gain an appreciation for the usefulness of statistical methods in analyzing data commonly encountered in business and the social and natural sciences. The course is a framework within which students may learn the subject matter. This framework consists of a program of study, opportunity for questions/discussion, explanation, and evaluation (quizzes). The major topics are:

Inferences About Population Variances

Tests of Goodness of Fit and Independence

Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance

Simple Linear Regression

Multiple Regression

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Nonparametric Methods

Statistical Methods for Quality Control

Decision Analysis

Sampling

The course addresses the following College of Business Program Objectives:

Students in this program will receive a thorough grounding in Mathematics and Statistics.

Your student evaluation of this course will be completed online using the IDEA system. This course emphasizes the following IDEA objectives:

Learning fundamental principles, generalizations, or theories.

Learning to apply course material to improve thinking, problem-solving, and decision-making.

Developing specific skills, competencies and points of view needed by professionals in the fields most closely

related to this course.

Quizzes and Grades: There are five quizzes. Dates are subject to change.

Quiz 1 Feb. 12 Quizzes will constitute 2/3 of your grade.

Quiz 2 Mar 5 The other 1/3 will be your score on assignments,

Quiz 3 Apr 2 Class participation may also be a factor.

Quiz 4 Apr. ?

Quiz 5 Final Exam week

Grade requirements: A--90%, B--80%, C--60%, D--50%

There may also be other assignments requiring the use of Excel. It is the responsibility of any student who is unsure of the grading scale, course requirements, or anything else in this course outline to ask the instructor for clarification.

Homework Assignments: There will be about 10 Aplia homework assignments. Due dates are listed in the Aplia system.

The assignments will constitute 1/3 of the course grade. To accommodate the occasional instance when you cannot meet an Aplia deadline, the lowest assignment will be dropped. Assignments will be handled by Aplia. You will be required to access the Aplia website, which means you need to register for an account at:

Please register within 24 hours of the first class meeting.

Please note: The computer is absolutely unforgiving about accepting late assignments. Time is kept at Aplia, and not by the computer you are working on. You may appeal grading decisions made by the computer, if you can demonstrate that an error has been made.

Faculty have observed that the worst thing students do, in any course, is not think about course material every day. They sometimes let weeks go by and then try to learn all the material in one or two days. This usually does not work. The weekly assignments will require keeping up-to-date.

Calculators: Calculators will be required for the computational portion of each quiz. Bring your calculator to every class and verify each computation performed. The TI-83 is the standard for this course.

Recommended Exercises: Students should work as many as possible of the even-numbered exercises in the text. Proficiency gained from practice on these will help when similar problems appear on quizzes. Answers to even-numbered exercises are at the back of the text.

Attendance: Attendance will be taken occasionally and randomly. Frequent absences will be noticed, and they will have an adverse impact on quiz performance and your final grade. Two or more absences on days when quizzes are handed back will lower your grade by one letter grade.

Missed Quizzes: Make-up quizzes will be given only if a quiz was missed for a good and documented reason. If a

make-up is given. The quiz score will be reduced 20% in an effort to maintain some degree of fairness

to those who took the quiz at the proper time.

Use of Class Time: Come to class prepared to discuss the material assigned, and to contribute to the solution of the assigned problems.

Special Needs: If you have a documented learning, psychological, or physical disability, you may be eligible for reasonable academic accommodations or services.  To request accommodations or services, please contact Tina in the Student Success Center, 012 Krasa Student Center, 630-829-6512.  All students are expected to fulfill essential course requirements.  The University will not waive any essential skill or requirement of a course or degree program.

Academic Honesty Policy: The search for truth and the dissemination of knowledge are the central mission of a university. Benedictine University pursues these missions in an environment guided by our Roman Catholic tradition and our Benedictine heritage. Integrity and honesty are therefore expected of all members of the community, including students, faculty members, administration, and staff. Actions such as cheating, plagiarism, collusion, fabrication, forgery, falsification, destructions, multiple submission, solicitation, and misrepresentation, are violations of these expectations and constitute unacceptable behavior in the University community. The penalties for such actions can range from a private verbal warning, all the way to expulsion from the University. The University’s Academic Honesty Policy is available at .

In this course, academic honesty is expected of all class participants, myself included. If your name is on the work submitted, it is expected that you alone did the work. For example, in terms of quizzes, this means that copying from another paper, unauthorized collaboration of any sort, or the use of “cribs” of any kind is a breach of academic honesty. The penalties for a breach of academic honesty in this course are (1) a zero for the assignment or quiz for the first offense, and (2) an “F” for the course for a subsequent offense by the same person(s).

Electronic Devices Policy: One aspect of being a member of a community of scholars is to show respect for others by the way you behave. Do your part to create or maintain an environment that is conducive to learning. Turn off your cell phone or set it to mute/silence before you enter class. If you use your cell phone or any other electronic device in any manner during a quiz, you will receive a zero for that test or quiz. Using the TI-83/84 calculator is permitted.

Feel free to see me if there is anything else of concern to you. Your comments about this course or any course are always welcome and appreciated. The student is responsible for the information in the syllabus and should ask for clarification for anything in the syllabus about which they are unsure.

COURSE PHILOSOPHY -- STATISTICS

In an article in the Chronicle of Higher Education, Sharon Rubin, assistant dean at the University of Maryland, states that all course syllabi, in addition to providing the basic information on texts, topics, schedule, etc., should answer certain questions. The instructor of this course would like to share these questions with you, and provide some answers.

You are what you know. You are what you can do.

"What value can you add to our organization?"

1. WHY SHOULD A STUDENT WANT TO TAKE THIS COURSE?

As a decision-maker, you must learn how to analyze and interpret quantitative information. Such skills will improve your ability to adopt the questioning attitude and independence of thought that are essential to leadership and success in any field. You may also have the opportunity to introduce statistical data analyses in areas where they are not currently in use, thus improving the quality of your organization's decisions.

2. WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THIS COURSE TO THE DISCIPLINE?

Statistics courses are part of the curriculum in many of BU's programs. But since this course is part of a program leading to a degree in business, let us interpret the word "discipline" in this question to mean "management." This can refer to marketing management, financial management, human resource management, etc., even the management of your personal affairs. To MANAGE something requires the ability to exert some CONTROL over it, and the ability to exert control requires identification of DEPENDENCIES. In order to manage sales performance, for example, you must find things upon which sales depends (e.g. advertising budget; product price; number, training, and compensation of salespersons; interest rates; and competitive factors), and learn something about the nature of the dependencies. Statistics is the major tool for identifying dependencies.

Another example of the importance of identifying dependencies: a new disease appears. Researchers immediately try to find things that enhance the occurrence rate or the severity of the illness (positive dependencies), and things that reduce them (negative dependencies). Only after such things are found can there be any hope of controlling the disease. Again, statistical analysis plays a major role.

Or, the objective may simply be to know more about how the world works. So-called "pure research" has no immediate application, but seeks to find relationships among things, thereby securing knowledge that may become useful in the future.

CAREFUL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF DATA OFTEN RESULTS IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF DEPENDENCIES, and this is the reason why statistics is an important tool in virtually all disciplines.

3. HOW DOES THIS COURSE FIT INTO THE "GENERAL EDUCATION" PROGRAM?

Statistics is a major way in which human beings learn about the world, and how to control it. To be familiar with a tool as fundamental and important as this is a responsibility of every educated person.

Statistics can be viewed as applied quantitative logic, usually seeking to make inferences about unknown parameters on the basis of observations and measurements of samples drawn from a target population.

The study of statistics can promote clear and careful thinking, enhance problem-solving skills, and strengthen one's ability to avoid premature conclusions. These are traits of the educated person, and are the mental qualities essential for "knowledge workers" in modern society.

4. WHAT ARE THE OBJECTIVES OF THE COURSE?

The most important objective is the development of your ability to learn this kind of material on your own, and to continue learning more about the subject after the course is over. Continuous and independent learning is an important activity of every successful person. In connection with the objective of independent learning, the instructor will expect students to study and learn certain topics in the course without formal discussion of them in class. Questions on these topics, of course, are always welcomed and encouraged.

With respect to specific objectives, they are: that students learn the terminology, theory, principles, and computational procedures related to basic descriptive and inferential statistics; and the careful cultivation of the logical processes involved in statistical inference. This will enable students to understand statistics and communicate statistical ideas using generally-accepted terminology.

Another important objective is that students become aware of the limitations of various statistical procedures. This is particularly important since most students in this course will be consumers rather than providers of statistical information and conclusions. Estimates and forecasts, for example, are generally regarded with too much faith, and relied upon to a degree not warranted in light of their inherent limitations.

5. WHAT MUST STUDENTS DO TO SUCCEED IN THIS COURSE?

Your activities in this course should include: reading and studying the relevant sections of the text; attending class and taking notes; rewriting, reviewing, and studying your notes; working the recommended exercises in the text; practicing and experimenting with various spreadsheet files supplied by the instructor; asking and answering questions in class; spending time just thinking about the procedures and their underlying logic; forming a study group with other students to review notes on terminology and concepts, and to practice problem-solving skills; and taking the quizzes.

These activities should help you to further develop your abilities to read, listen, record, and organize important information; and to communicate, analyze, compute, and learn independently the subject matter of statistics.

In order to do well, students must recognize a basic difference between courses like statistics and courses like history, philosophy, management or organizational strategy. In the latter type, the emphasis is often on general ideas in broad contexts, with grades based on essay exams and term papers in which students have considerable latitude to choose what they are going to discuss. The cogent expression and defense of well-reasoned opinion are highly valued. Students with good verbal, logical and writing skills often excel in this type of course. Statistics, on the other hand, is a skills course, requiring precise knowledge of concepts, terminology, and computational procedures. Verbal skills are still important, but now quantitative logic and computational competence are also critical. Grades are based on knowledge of terminology and concepts, and even more on the ability to get the right answers to problems.

Regarding study strategy, it is extremely important for most students to read about statistics, to think about statistics and to do a few problems every day. The most common error is to neglect the material until shortly before a quiz. But for most students, many of the concepts in statistics are new and strange, and there will be many places where they are stopped cold: "What?" "I just don't get this!" Then there is no time left to cultivate the understanding of new concepts and to refine the computational procedures. Anyone can learn statistics, but most cannot do it overnight.

As with most courses, this course is organized with the most fundamental material coming first. In learning a new language, or how to play a musical instrument, or any new set of skills, mastery of the basics is essential to success later on. The subject matter of statistics is not like history, where, if you did not study 14th century France, it probably did not affect your learning about 17th century England. In statistics, failure to obtain a good understanding of earlier material will have a serious adverse effect on your ability to make sense out of what comes later. It is therefore essential to build a solid foundation of fundamental knowledge early in the course in order to support the more elaborate logical and computational structures involved later.

6. WHAT ARE THE PREREQUISITES FOR THE COURSE?

The primary prerequisite is a logical mind. This course is computational, but it is not a "math" course. Mathematical theorems are not derived or proven; the need to solve equations is very rare. The emphasis is on concrete applications rather than abstract theory. Some students with good math backgrounds have done poorly, while others with little or no math experience have done very well.

The best MBA stats student I ever had was a philosophy major who did not have single math course at the college level. When asked about this, the he replied: "My philosophy major gave me excellent training in logic, and that's really what this course requires."

7. OF WHAT IMPORTANCE IS CLASS PARTICIPATION?

In this course, class participation means frequently asking relevant questions and supplying answers (right or wrong) to the instructor's and colleagues' questions as problems and examples are worked out and discussed. These behaviors are evidence of active involvement with the material and will result in better learning and an automatic positive effect on your grade. In grade border-line cases, a history of active participation will enable the instructor to award the higher grade to the deserving student.

8. WILL STUDENTS BE GIVEN ALTERNATIVE WAYS TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS, BASED ON DIFFERENT LEARNING STYLES?

Different learning styles do exist. Some prefer a deductive method (deriving specific knowledge from general principles), while others tend to prefer an inductive method (deriving the generalities from examples). The inductive learners may need to work a number of problems before seeing the patterns that are present. The deductive learners may never need to work a problem--they will know instinctively what to do. Some will not like the book, and will learn primarily from the class presentations and discussions, while others will learn mostly from the book and will find class time to be of lesser importance.

But the intended outcomes are the same for all--those in number 4 above.

9. WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THE ASSIGNMENTS?

Problems from the text may be suggested, for the purpose of providing practice in analyzing what must be done, and in performing the required computations. Even though computer software is available to perform calculations, students can gain insight into the logical structure of a sequence of computational steps if they go through them several times by hand (i.e. using simple calculators).

Computer assignments using instructor-supplied spreadsheet files will require students to become more familiar with spreadsheet software that they probably are or will be using in connection with their work. More importantly, the spreadsheets allow students to experiment with data in order to investigate the quantitative relationships involved. Such experimentation would be too tedious and time-consuming for manual or even calculator computation.

10. WHAT WILL THE TESTS TEST? -- MEMORY? UNDERSTANDING? ABILITY TO SYNTHESIZE? TO PRESENT EVIDENCE LOGICALLY? TO APPLY KNOWLEDGE IN A NEW CONTEXT?

The tests will test your ability to recognize and use statistical terminology correctly, and they will test your understanding of the logic and principles underlying various statistical procedures. In addition, you will have to demonstrate your ability to solve problems similar to those discussed in class, sometimes using computer spreadsheet files.

There is a place for memorization in learning. It is not a substitute for comprehension, but it is better than getting something wrong on a quiz that you were expected to know. As with prayers among small children, memorization is often a first step, eventually followed by understanding. But if the memorization (of terminology, for example) is not done, it is less likely that the comprehension will ever occur.

11. WHY HAS THIS PARTICULAR TEXT BEEN CHOSEN?

Our text is one of the most widely adopted introductory statistics books. It has gone through several editions, and its popularity remains high. It is relatively easy to read, and its exercise material is excellent.

12. WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE LEVEL AND GRADES?

Consider this hypothetical but realistic situation.

Percentage Grade

Knowledge Course A Course B

100% 100% 100%

90% 90% 81%

80% 80% 64%

70% 70% 49%

60% 60% 36%

50% 50% 25%

40% 40% 16%

30% 30% 9%

20% 20% 4%

10% 10% 1%

Course A might be like philosophy, history, or management, where the grade is more-or-less proportional to knowledge level. Course B might be like statistics or other skills courses, where small deficiencies in knowledge can have disastrous effects on results. Overstudying is the best strategy for coping with this, with the dual payoffs of higher grades and, more importantly, greater knowledge.

| |QUIZ |HW | | | | | | | | | | | | | |0.667 |0.333 | |A |B |C |D |F | | | | | | | |HW | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  |10 |20 |30 |40 |50 |60 |70 |80 |90 |95 |100 |  | |QUIZ |100 | 70.0 | 73.4 | 76.7 | 80.0 | 83.4 | 86.7 | 90.0 | 93.3 | 96.7 | 98.3 | 100 |100 | | |95 | 66.7 | 70.0 | 73.4 | 76.7 | 80.0 | 83.3 | 86.7 | 90.0 | 93.3 | 95.0 | 96.7 |95 | | |90 | 63.4 | 66.7 | 70.0 | 73.4 | 76.7 | 80.0 | 83.3 | 86.7 | 90.0 | 91.7 | 93.3 |90 | | |85 | 60.0 | 63.4 | 66.7 | 70.0 | 73.3 | 76.7 | 80.0 | 83.3 | 86.7 | 88.3 | 90.0 |85 | | |80 | 56.7 | 60.0 | 63.4 | 66.7 | 70.0 | 73.3 | 76.7 | 80.0 | 83.3 | 85.0 | 86.7 |80 | | |75 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 60.0 | 63.3 | 66.7 | 70.0 | 73.3 | 76.7 | 80.0 | 81.7 | 83.3 |75 | | |70 | 50.0 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 60.0 | 63.3 | 66.7 | 70.0 | 73.3 | 76.7 | 78.3 | 80.0 |70 | | |65 | 46.7 | 50.0 | 53.3 | 56.7 | 60.0 | 63.3 | 66.7 | 70.0 | 73.3 | 75.0 | 76.7 |65 | | |60 | 43.4 | 46.7 | 50.0 | 53.3 | 56.7 | 60.0 | 63.3 | 66.7 | 70.0 | 71.7 | 73.3 |60 | | |55 | 40.0 | 43.3 | 46.7 | 50.0 | 53.3 | 56.7 | 60.0 | 63.3 | 66.7 | 68.3 | 70.0 |55 | | |50 | 36.7 | 40.0 | 43.3 | 46.7 | 50.0 | 53.3 | 56.7 | 60.0 | 63.3 | 65.0 | 66.7 |50 | | |45 | 33.3 | 36.7 | 40.0 | 43.3 | 46.7 | 50.0 | 53.3 | 56.7 | 60.0 | 61.7 | 63.3 |45 | | |40 | 30.0 | 33.3 | 36.7 | 40.0 | 43.3 | 46.7 | 50.0 | 53.3 | 56.7 | 58.3 | 60.0 |40 | | |30 | 23.3 | 26.7 | 30.0 | 33.3 | 36.7 | 40.0 | 43.3 | 46.7 | 50.0 | 51.6 | 53.3 |30 | | |20 | 16.7 | 20.0 | 23.3 | 26.7 | 30.0 | 33.3 | 36.7 | 40.0 | 43.3 | 45.0 | 46.6 |20 | |

I can use Excel to

perform basic computations

prepare tables

create charts and graphs

conduct common statistical procedures

create dashboards

I can use Word to

create various kinds of documents

I can

compute

means

medians

variances

standard deviations

confidence intervals for means and proportions

use the

binomial distribution to answer probability questions

normal distribution to answer probability questions

chi-square distribution to answer probability questions

F distribution to answer probability questions

conduct

hypothesis tests on

the means of one group or two

the proportions of one group or two

hypothetical vs. observed distributions

variances of one group or two

group means using ANOVA

regression analysis to examine correlation and make forecasts

I can

perform financial analysis

compute the NPV of various investment opportunities

decide between using debt or equity to raise new funds

determine the optimum mix of debt and equity financing

compute cost-of-capital

decide whether to make or buy components for our products

determine how much direct labor, direct materials, and overhead is going into our products

create cash budgets

conduct cost-volume-profit analyses

prepare a master budget

prepare prformance reports using standard costs and variances

employ the scientific method to study problems that may come up

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