Market Update
[Pages:22]Market Update: What's Behind the Volatility
Today's Agenda
What's Happening in the Markets and Why What Market Volatility Means for Your Portfolio Dos And Don'ts during Volatile Times Next Steps
What's Happening--and Why
One-Year Returns Are Mixed, with Bonds Leading
Mature economic growth and ongoing trade tensions have periodically weighed on stocks
20%
2019
15%
10% 5% 0% -5%
-10%
Bonds YTD: 7.8% 1Y: 9.6%
U.S. Stocks YTD: 18.6% 1Y: 3.7%
Non-U.S. Stocks YTD: 9.1% 1Y: -4.1%
-15%
-20% Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Fidelity Investments, Bloomberg as of 8/8/19. U.S. Equity = Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index; Non-U.S. Equity = Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) All Country World Index ex US (Net MA); Bonds = Barclays U.S. Aggregate 4 Bond Index.
Bonds Have Benefited from Falling Interest Rates
10-YEAR U.S. TREASURY BOND YIELD
3.5% Fed Interest Rate Hike Dates
3.0%
Interest Rate (%)
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0% Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16
Feb-17
Aug-17
Feb-18
Aug-18
Feb-19
Aug-19
5 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 8/8/19.
Global Manufacturing Has Continued to Slow
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indexes
62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 Apr-16
Oct-16
MANUFACTURING PMI SURVEYS
U.S.
Eurozone
U.K.
Japan
China
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
6 Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P., as of 6/30/19.
Apr-19
U.S.-China: Strategic Competition Intertwined with Trade
U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP
GLOBAL TRADE INTERDEPENDENCE
Geopolitical Rivalry
Military Hegemony
in Asia
Strategic Competition
IT Sector/ Advanced Industrials
Trade
Consumer and Other
Goods
China U.S.
Industrial Policy Issues
? IP protection
Tariffs/ Market Access
? Export controls
? Investment restrictions
RIGHT: The size of the circles represents total trade. The thickness of lines represents the volume of trade flows. The size of the circle and proximity to other countries represent importance and interconnectedness. Gray circles represent other countries. Source: International Monetary Fund, Haver 7 Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 12/31/15.
U.S. Job Market Remains Quite Strong
Thousands
U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS, 4 WEEK AVERAGE
750
650
550
450
350
250
150 12/68
12/73
12/78
12/83
12/88
12/93
12/98
12/03
12/08
12/13
12/18
8 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 6/30/19.
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