China Market Assessment - Amazon Web Services

China Market Assessment

20 Year Foresight Analysis of Pork and Processed Pork Product Consumption

Final Report

Prepared by

Girag & Associates Sarl. for

National Pork Board 25th October 2019

Girag & Associates Sarl ? 13 chemin du Levant, F-01210 Ferney-Voltaire, France Tel: (33) 4 50 40 24 00 Gira 2019

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NPB ? CHINA PORK 2040

Table of Contents

1) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................14

2) OBJECTIVES AND COVERAGE.............................................................................20

3) METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................22 3.1: DOCUMENTARY RESEARCH, INVOLVING: ...........................................................................22 3.2: INTERVIEWS WITH WELL-INFORMED OPERATORS AND EXPERTS..........................................22 3.3: CONSUMER FOCUS GROUPS ...........................................................................................23 3.4: STORECHECKS .........................................................................................................23 3.5: DATA ANALYSIS, FORECASTING AND CROSS REFERENCING ................................................24

THE WORKPLAN

................................................................................................. 24

A PRELIMINARY PHASE: .........................................................................................................24

PHASE I:

.........................................................................................................24

PHASE II:

.........................................................................................................24

4)

THE MACRO-ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL FORECASTS AND ASSUMPTIONS THROUGH 2040 USED

IN THE STUDY. .................................................................................................26

4.1 GEOGRAPHY

.........................................................................................................26

4.2 POPULATION

.........................................................................................................28

4.3 DEMOGRAPHICS .........................................................................................................30

4.4 THE ECONOMY .........................................................................................................32

4.5 POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE ............................................................................................35

4.6 WORKING ASSUMPTIONS ADOPTED FOR THIS STUDY .........................................................36

5)

A QUALITATIVE & QUANTITATIVE OVERVIEW OF THE CURRENT CHINESE PORK MARKET.

................................................................................................. 38

5.1 OVERVIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE CHINESE PORK MARKET ...............................38

5.2 THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE PORK PRODUCTION ? 2025 / 2030 / 2040 ..............40 IMPACT ON BREEDERS: .........................................................................................................44 IMPACT ON SLAUGHTERERS AND PROCESSORS: ......................................................................46

5.3 THE EVOLUTION OF ASF AND ITS ENDURING IMPACT ON THE MARKET ......................48 Gira 2019

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THE FACTORS THAT TURNED ASF INTO A NATIONWIDE DISASTER FOR CHINA ............................50 THE PLAGUE SPREADS .........................................................................................................53 RECOVERY IN PORK PRODUCTION..........................................................................................55 IMPACT OF FUTURE IMPORTS .................................................................................................56 RECOVERY IN PORK CONSUMPTION .......................................................................................57 RAMIFICATIONS: THE OUTLOOK FOR 2025 AND 2030...............................................................57

5.4 MEAT IMPORTS ? TRADING PARTNERS, DYNAMICS, AND PRODUCTS..........................59

METHODOLOGICAL NOTE ON TRADE STATISTICS .....................................................................59

TRADE OVERVIEW .........................................................................................................59

OTHER MEATS

.........................................................................................................65

5.5 COMPETITION FROM OTHER MEATS ? 2025 / 2030 / 2040.........................................82

5.6 THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE PORK DISTRIBUTION ? 2025 / 2030 / 2040.............89

THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD CHAIN.......................................................................................90

ECOMMERCE

.........................................................................................................95

IMPORTS

.........................................................................................................96

5.7 THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE PORK AT RETAIL ? 2025 / 2030 / 2040 ................101 CHINA'S GROCERY CHANNELS .............................................................................................102 THE "NEW RETAIL" CONCEPT...............................................................................................109

5.8 THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE PORK AT FOOD SERVICE ? 2025 / 2030 / 2040.....114

RESTAURANTS

.......................................................................................................115

HOTELS

.......................................................................................................117

E-COMMERCE

.......................................................................................................118

INSTITUTIONAL

.......................................................................................................119

HEALTH, VEGANISM, ANIMAL WELFARE ................................................................................120

PORK SOURCING, DOMESTIC ...............................................................................................120

PORK SOURCING, IMPORTED................................................................................................121

6) CHINESE CONSUMER INSIGHTS.............................................................................123

6.1 OBJECTIVES OF THE QUALITATIVE PORK CONSUMER STUDY ....................................123

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NPB ? CHINA PORK 2040

6.2 METHODOLOGY USED .....................................................................................124

6.3 SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS ...........................................................................126

6.4 SOME MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NPB'S EXPORTER MEMBERS ... ............................................................................................... 135

6.5. THE DETAILED FINDINGS OF THE CONSUMER RESEARCH ...................................136 6.5.1 THE IMAGE OF MEAT FOR CONSUMERS .........................................................................136 6.5.2 PORK IS A "UNIVERSAL" MEAT ......................................................................................137 6.5.3 THE SEGMENTATION & FUTURE OF DEMAND BY LIFESTYLE GROUPS ..............................143

7)

THE MAIN FORCES FOR CHANGE & TRENDS IN THE CHINESE PORK MARKET TO 2040

............................................................................................... 159

OVERVIEW:

............................................................................................... 159

KEY CONCLUSIONS OF FORCES FOR CHANGE .............................................................160

A: SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT:..............................................................................163 CHINESE CHILL CHAIN DEVELOPMENT (25) ...........................................................................163 INCREASED SENSOR USE ALONG THE SUPPLY CHAIN (20).....................................................164 RAIL FREIGHT FROM THE EU FOR MEAT (10) ........................................................................165

B: TECHNOLOGY IN THE PIG SUPPLY CHAIN: ..............................................................166 IMPROVED PIG GENETICS IN CHINA (20) ...............................................................................166 FARM LEVEL TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE (20) ..............................................................................167 INDUSTRIALIZATION OF SUPPLY CHAIN (FARM TO RETAIL) (15)................................................167

C: ECONOMICS:

............................................................................................... 169

MIDDLE CLASS (16) .......................................................................................................169

DISPOSABLE INCOME (15)....................................................................................................170

ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTMENT (12)...................................................................................171

ECONOMIC GROWTH (12) ....................................................................................................172

LABOR COST (8)

.......................................................................................................173

EXCHANGE RATE (RMB VS USD) (4) ...................................................................................174

GENERAL INFLATION (6).......................................................................................................174

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