The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2018
2018
THE STATE OF
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS
AGRICULTURAL TRADE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND
FOOD SECURITY
This flagship publication is part of THE STATE OF THE WORLD series of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Required citation: FAO. 2018. The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2018. Agricultural trade, climate change and food security. Rome. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.
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ISBN 978-92-5-130565-2 ? FAO 2018
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COVER PHOTOGRAPH ?West Siwa Development Project
EGYPT: Siwa Oasis is one of the best illustrations of farmers' ingenuity to adapt agriculture to very harsh climatic conditions by managing scarce water resources to rear livestock and grow indigenous crops to respond to local needs.
2018
THE STATE OF
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS
AGRICULTURAL TRADE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND
FOOD SECURITY
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2018
CONTENTS
FOREWORD
iv
METHODOLOGY
vi
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
vii
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
x
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
xii
PART 1
AGRICULTURAL TRADE:
KEY DYNAMICS AND TRENDS
1
The evolution of agricultural trade: 2000?2016 2
Agricultural policy trends
9
PART 2 THE LINKAGES BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL TRADE, FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 13
Climate change, agriculture and agricultural trade 14
Long-term foresight analysis of climate change
impacts on agricultural trade
19
PART 3
AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
EXPLORING THE POLICY SPACE
31
Paris Agreement and the World Trade
Organization (WTO) Agreements
32
Relationship between WTO regulations
and the Paris Agreement
38
Policy space for effective implementation of
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
40
PART 4
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND
MITIGATING ITS IMPACT: DOMESTIC POLICIES
AND SUPPORT MEASURES
43
Policies targeting adaptation and mitigation in
production under the Agreement on Agriculture 44
Policies for emissions reduction
53
Assessing the policy space for domestic support:
adaptation and mitigation in the context of the
Agreement on Agriculture
58
PART 5
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND
MITIGATING ITS IMPACT: THE ROLE
OF TRADE POLICIES
61
The role of trade and trade policies
in climate change adaptation
62
The role of trade in mitigating the impact
of climate change
69
Assessing the policy space for trade policies:
adaptation and mitigation in the context
of WTO obligations
72
PART 6
NON-TARIFF MEASURES (NTMs):
REGULATIONS AND STANDARDS
75
Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and
environmental protection
76
Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures
(SPS) Agreement
78
GLOSSARY
85
NOTES
86
| ii |
TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES
TABLES
1.1 Major importers of agricultural
products: share of total import value,
2016 and 2000
5
1.2 Major exporters of agricultural
products: share of total export
value, 2016 and 2000
6
2.1 Climate change and food
security
16
3.1 Total domestic support
37
4.1 Annex 2 of the Agreement on
Agriculture: Green Box support
measures
47
4.2 Effects of a USD 20 tax per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent on selected agricultural prices for selected countries (percent increase) 55
5.1 Impact of emissions leakage
through trade
70
FIGURES
1.1 World merchandise trade value
and world GDP: annual growth rates,
2000?2016
3
1.2 Agricultural price indices, 1990?2018 (2002?2004=100) 4
1.3 Food Price Index volatility, January 1991?March 2018 (percent) 4
1.4 Evolution of South?South
agricultural trade, 2000?2015
7
1.5 Least Developed Countries:
Agricultural trade (USD billion),
2000?2015
8
1.6 Sub-Saharan Africa: net
agricultural trade (USD billion),
2000?2013
9
1.7 Average agricultural applied tariff
rates, weighted average (percent),
2000?2016
10
1.8 Producer Nominal Protection
Coefficient, 2000?2016
10
2.1 Changes in agricultural production
in 2050: climate change relative to the
baseline
20
2.2 Baseline and climate change crop
yield assumptions, percent change
2011?2050
22
2.3 Changes in agricultural net
trade in 2050: climate change scenario
relative to the baseline (in billion USD,
2011 constant prices)
23
2.4 Changes in agricultural production and net exports in selected countries and regions in 2050: climate change scenario relative to the baseline 23
2.5 Increases in exports of agricultural
products in 2050: climate change
relative to the baseline (in billion USD,
2011 constant prices)
24
2.6 Decreases in exports of agricultural
products in 2050: climate change
relative to the baseline (in billion USD,
2011 constant prices)
25
2.7 Changes in GDP in 2050:
climate change scenario relative
to the baseline scenario
26
2.8 Changes in GDP in selected
countries and regions in 2050:
climate change scenario relative
to the baseline
26
2.9 Changes in food prices in
2050: climate change scenario
relative to the baseline
27
2.10 Changes in food prices and
food purchasing power in selected
countries/regions in 2050: climate
change scenario relative to the
baseline
27
4.1 Sources of growth in global
agricultural output
48
5.1 Maize imports, 2000?2016
(billion USD)
63
5.2 Impact of open markets on net
trade positions under climate change in
2050
65
BOXES
2.1 Agricultural trade, climate
change and nutrition
15
2.2 Limitations of long-term
foresight analysis
17
2.3 Climate change and chokepoints of global food trade 18
2.4 System drivers and scenarios
in the modelling analysis
21
2.5 The impact of climate change
on fisheries
28
3.1 Implementation mechanisms
under the Kyoto Protocol and
Paris Agreement
33
3.2 The US -- Gasoline case 39
3.3 Developing countries: special and differential treatment 41
4.1 Regional food reserves
52
4.2 Cap-and-trade schemes
56
4.3 Regulatory policies:
deforestation and biofuels
57
5.1 Import financing for
developing countries
64
5.2 The effects of global
agricultural market integration
65
6.1 Estimating the carbon footprint of agricultural products 79
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