New York's Population and Migration Trends in the 2010s

Weissman Center for International Business

Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College/CUNY

No. 21

WCIB Occasional Paper Series

New York's Population and Migration Trends in the 2010s

Frank Donnelly1

Fall 2020

Summary 1. Population growth in New York City and the New York Metropolitan Area was strong at the beginning of the 2010s, but slowed as the decade progressed. Both began losing population from 2017 forward.

2. Population growth slowed as domestic out-migration increased between 2011 and 2017, and population loss ensued as foreign migration and natural increase fell between 2017 and 2019.

3. Between 2011 and 2018 the city had few relationships where it was a net receiver of migrants from other US counties (receiving more migrants than it sends), and the NY metro area had no net receiver relationships with any major metro area.

4. Negative domestic migration is common among the nation's largest cities and metros, and is typically counterbalanced by foreign immigration and natural increase.

Introduction New York City (NYC) and the greater New York Metropolitan Area (NYMA) have experienced strong population growth for the past several decades. Based on the decennial census, the city hit its peak population in 2010, an unusual distinction it shared with growing Sunbelt cities in the South and West (Short & Mussman, 2014). In contrast, many of NYC's large neighbors in the Northeast and Midwest hit their peak population in 1950. This trajectory of growth may be coming to an end. Annual Census Bureau estimates show that population growth has slowed over the course of the past decade, and that population has been declining since 2017 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Population Change 2000 - 2019* *Source: Intercensal estimates 2000-2009, Vintage 2019 population estimates 2010-2019

1 Frank Donnelly is the Geospatial Data Librarian at Baruch College, City University of New York, and an affiliate of the CUNY Institute for Demographic Research.

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New York's Population and Migration Trends in the 2010s

Fall 2020

This paper updates our previous study that examined the first half of the 2010s (Donnelly et al., 2018). We look back at the entire decade using the latest vintage 2019 population estimates from the US Census Bureau, to illustrate how population trends were influenced by the demographic components of change: natural increase (the difference between births and deaths), domestic migration, and foreign migration. We'll proceed to take a closer look at domestic migration using IRS migration data, to identify the top origins and destinations for New York migrants, and will provide a brief summary of the origin of recent foreign migrants from the American Community Survey. We'll conclude with an analysis of these trends and how the COVID-19 pandemic may affect them in the near future.

We explore New York at two different scales: New York City (NYC) in relation to other counties and cities in the US, and the New York Metropolitan Area (NYMA) in relation to other metropolitan statistical areas. At the city-level, NYC competes with the surrounding suburban counties for residents and with other large cities in the country that attract urban dwellers. Migration at this scale affects the city's ability to raise revenue through income and property taxes. At a broader level, NYC and the surrounding counties form a common labor market with shared economic, social, and cultural ties. The NYMA competes with other metros across the country for jobs and residents, and migration at this scale has an impact on the metro's ability to remain competitive within the national economy. The NYMA consists of twenty-three counties: ten in New York State (including the five counties that are NYC's boroughs), twelve in New Jersey, and one in Pennsylvania, as shown in Figure 22. In this paper we refer to the NYMA counties that are outside NYC as "suburban" counties, even though several of them are urban in their own right.

Figure 2: Counties in the New York Metropolitan Area

2 We are using the most recent definitions for core based statistical areas that were released by the US Office of Management and Budget in September 2018 and employed in the 2019 vintage population estimates. In this iteration of the definitions, Dutchess and Orange County in New York State were removed from the New York City Metropolitan Area to form the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown metropolitan area (which had existed as an independent metro prior to February 2013 but was merged with the NYMA).

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New York's Population and Migration Trends in the 2010s

Fall 2020

We begin each section with a brief explanation of the data sources and important caveats for interpreting the statistics. We compare NYC and the NYMA to their largest peers, to provide context for their trends. The population estimates and the IRS migration datasets are published at the county-level. We aggregate data for the five counties of NYC that represent its boroughs, compare it to nine other counties that are home to the largest cities in the US that have a population of over one million people3, and examine migration flows between NYC and other counties. As metropolitan areas are aggregates of counties, we aggregate the county-level data using the latest metropolitan area definitions, compare the NYMA to the other US metros that have a population of over four million people, and study flows between the NYMA and other metros.

Population Trends and Components of Change

The Population Estimates Dataset The Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program produces annual estimates of the US population with a reference date of July 1st. In demography, the components of change are the factors that influence population change: births, deaths, and migration. The Census Bureau compiles data from multiple administrative sources to measure these components, which are used to derive the estimates. Data on births and deaths are collected from the National Center for Health Statistics to calculate natural increase, which is the difference between births and deaths. The Bureau uses data from the IRS and the Medicare enrollment program to generate estimates for domestic migration, which represents internal movement within the United States. Calculations for foreign migration are based on the American Community Survey and a number of other sources, to represent moves between the US and other countries. The Bureau publishes statistics for net domestic and net foreign migration for given areas, which represents the difference between inflows (moves to an area) and outflows (moves from an area).

The estimates allow us to study annual population change and what drives that change in-between decennial census years. There are two important caveats in using and interpreting this data. First, these estimates are created using administrative data in a series of models; revisions to the underlying datasets or to assumptions built into the models can alter the results. The Population Division of the NYC Department of City Planning cautions that the Census Bureau's methods are not robust enough for making annual comparisons of the city's population, but are best used for studying long term trends (NYC Planning, 2020, NYC Planning 2019), as we are doing here.

Second, the Census Bureau publishes these annual estimates as vintages which incorporate the latest year of data, plus all of the previous years back to the last decennial census. In producing a vintage, the Bureau often revises estimates for previous years based on corrections, new assumptions, and changes in methodology. Thus, a new vintage does not augment the previous one, but replaces it entirely. Estimates for 2016 that were drawn from vintage 2016 in our previous paper (Donnelly et al., 2018) will be different from the 2016 estimates included in vintage 2019 used in this paper. Estimates from different vintages should not be compared.

In this paper we are using the vintage 2019 estimates (US Census Bureau, 2019). Even though they span the entire decade, they will not be the final word. The estimates for this past decade will be revised for a final time after the 2020 census is conducted. These revised estimates are known as intercensal estimates, and are created to better illustrate what happened between two decennial census years.

3 Most cities in the United States are contained within a single county, which also includes areas that are not part of that city (other cities as well as suburbs). NYC is the only city in the nation that is composed of several counties in their entirety. There are a small number of US cities that consist of an entire county; of the nine other most populous cities, Philadelphia is the only one where the city and county are the same entity.

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New York's Population and Migration Trends in the 2010s

Fall 2020

Population Trends 2010-2019 The City of New York grew by approximately 162,000 residents between 2010 and 2019, a growth rate of two percent (Table 1). The population grew by 565,000 people through natural increase, and net foreign migration added an additional 496,000 residents. Net domestic migration was -900,000, as more people moved out of the city than moved in. Considered together, nine people left NYC for other parts of the US for every five foreign migrants that arrived. The greater NYMA has approximately 19.2 million people and grew by 320,000 residents during this period, a growth rate of 1.7%. The metro added 932,000 people through natural increase and 837,000 people from net foreign migration, while losing 1.4 million people to net domestic migration.

Table 1: Population Change 2010 to 2019

2010 Census*

2019 Estimate

Natural Increase

Domestic Migration

New York City

8,175,031

8,336,817

565,205

-899,806

New York Metro

18,896,277 19,216,182

932,102

-1,448,667

*Represents the estimate base, which is a revised version of the 2010 census count

Foreign Migration

496,070 837,005

Change

161,786 2.0%

319,905 1.7%

While NYC has grown over this period, most of this growth occurred at the beginning of the decade. The line in Figure 3 illustrates annual population change, while the bars indicate the contributions to population change for each of the components (the data for 2011 in this and subsequent figures in this section represents change between the estimates for July 1, 2010 and July 1, 2011, and not from the April 1, 2010 decennial census). The population grew by approximately 83,000 people between 2010 and 2011, but growth slowed with each passing year, and by 2016 the city added just 6,000 residents. The population began declining in 2017, and the city lost approximately 132,000 people between 2017 and 2019.

Figure 3: Components of NYC Population Change

Figure 4: Components of NYMA Population Change

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New York's Population and Migration Trends in the 2010s

Fall 2020

Steady increases in negative net domestic migration slowed the city's population growth in the first half of the decade. Net domestic migration went from -49,000 in 2011 to -139,000 in 2017, and then leveled off through 2019. Declines in both net foreign migration and natural increase tipped the city into negative territory at the decade's end. Net foreign migration consistently added between 55,000 to 64,000 residents per year between 2011 and 2016, but from 2017 onward shrank to the point where the city added only 34,000 foreign residents in 2019. Natural increase slowly declined by about 1,000 people each year from 2011 to 2016, but declined more sharply from 2017 forward. Births began to decline after 2015 (from 118,000 in 2015 to 107,000 in 2019) while deaths began increasing after 2016 (from 53,000 in 2016 to 62,000 in 2019).

The pattern for the entire NYMA is similar, as shown in Figure 4: increasing negative net domestic migration from 2011 to 2017, and after years of consistency a downturn in net foreign migration and natural increase beginning in 2017 that pushed the metro into population decline. The metro area went from adding 129,000 residents in 2011 to losing 60,000 in 2019. Net domestic migration was approximately -200,000 each year from 2017 to 2019. Net foreign migration fell from a peak of 106,000 in 2016 to 59,000 in 2019, and natural increase declined from 112,000 in 2011 to 77,000 in 2019. Like the city, births began declining in 2016 while deaths began increasing in 2017.

While these recent statistics depict a downward trend, it's important to remember that the city and metro did not grow consistently every year during previous periods of growth. Furthermore, the population gains of the recent past have been quite strong for a city and region that's as densely populated and built-out as this one. Figure 1 on the first page shows some growth in the early 2000s, a small decline in population for a few years until about 2006, and then a dramatic increase that lasted for ten years, right through the middle of the Great Recession. The estimated losses of the past few years are modest in comparison.

In their analysis of the vintage 2019 estimates, the City's Population Division attributes the decline in foreign migration to changes in federal immigration policy (NYC Planning, 2020). The population estimates for the United States show that net foreign migration fell from 1.05 million in 2016 to 595,000 in 2019, a 43% decline.

Declines in natural increase are influenced by longer-term trends. The population of the United States is aging as the large Baby Boomer generation moves into retirement and the generations succeeding them are smaller. Death rates are increasing as the population is aging, and simultaneously birth rates are decreasing as people are having fewer children and are delaying childbirth until they are older (Frey, 2020a, Vespa et al. 2020). Foreign migration is also a factor that influences natural increase, as the US immigrant population tends to have higher rates of fertility and lower rates of mortality (Vespa et al., 2020).

Studies from the Brookings Institute show that population growth in the country's largest metropolitan areas (with over one million people) has tapered off in the latter half of the 2010s, while growth in mid-sized metro areas has remained stable. Within all metro areas, growth in downtown cores has declined while suburban growth has accelerated. Both of these phenomena are inversions of trends that characterized the first half of the decade (Frey, 2020b). While the largest metros continue to serve as the primary engines of economic growth (Berube, 2020), an improving economy over the course of the 2010s enabled more people to move to suburbs and smaller metros where housing costs are lower (Frey, 2020b).

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