Lab: STAGES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL



Lab: STAGES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Complete the following in your notes. Answers for 4. i) and ii) can be entered on the chart. Due: ________________ /53 marks

1. Calculate the natural increase (using +) or decrease (using -) for each country on the data sheet. You may work with a partner to ease the number of calculations. (5 marks)

2. a) Using the data sheet provided, classify the countries using the following criteria…

i) Countries in PHASE 2 of the Demographic Transition Model may be recognized by a combination of a birth rate (B.R.) of 40/1000 and over and a death rate (D.R.) of 40/1000 and under.

ii) Countries in PHASE 3 of the Model have a birth rate over 20/1000 but under

40/1000, and a death rate under 40/1000

Your task: In the appropriate column provided on the data sheet, identify all the countries that belong to PHASE 2 and PHASE 3 by placing a 2 or 3 in the appropriate boxes. (5)

b) Scan the names of countries that you didn’t classify as Category 2 or 3. What do you notice about these countries? Do you see any patterns? (location?) (1)

3. Identify and list the top 6 countries currently undergoing the most rapid population growth (3). Where on earth do most of these tend to be located? (1) Describe the demographic characteristics of this group of countries (you can use your ‘Demographic Transition Model’ class note). (2)

4. i) Calculate the population doubling time (in years) for the following countries… (6)

a) Canada b) China c) India d) Italy e) United Kingdom f) United States

…using the following formula known as the “Rule of 72”…

___________72_____________

Doubling Time = % Population Growth

…and using the following statistics…

|COUNTRY |POP. (millions) |POP. GROWTH % |Doubling time |‘new population’ |

| | | |(years) | |

|Canada | 33.3 | .83 | | |

|China | 1324.7 | .63 | | |

|India | 1149.3 | 1.6 | | |

|Italy | 59.9 | .13 | | |

|United Kingdom | 61.3 | .28 | | |

|United States | 304.5 | .88 | | |

ii) What will be each country’s new population once they’ve doubled? Enter your answer into

the last column of the chart (3)

Demographic Transition Lab cont.

iii) Within 115 years (I say 115 simply because all of the 4 countries will have doubled by then), what will be the estimated (partially because doubling times will vary) combined, predicted (and doubled) population of Canada, India, China and the United States? How does this number (generated from only 4 countries) compare to the current population of the entire world? (approx. 7.1 billion) Comment on your findings – what concerns come to mind, if any? (4)

iv) Do you think the earth will ever actually experience such population numbers? Explain your answer. (you’ll essentially be siding with either Ehrlich or Simon) (2)

v) Although Canada’s and China’s doubling times are relatively close at less than 30 years apart, do they both have to be equally concerned? Explain your answer. (2)

5. On the map of the world provided, create a graded shading (“choropleth”) map to show those countries that are experiencing PHASE 2 and PHASE 3 of the demographic transition model. Use a “strong” colour for PHASE 2 and a paler shade of the same colour for PHASE 3. Use the same coloured pencil for both shades, just press harder for Phase 2 and lighter for Phase 3 so there is a definite difference. Be sure to include a legend and an appropriate title. Do not label the countries. You may work with a partner to ease the atlas work. If you have trouble locating some newer countries, refer to the internet. (10)

6. Comment on the overall pattern that develops when the data is mapped. What do you notice? (3)

7. What is happening to populations in countries like Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Ukraine and Romania? What social problems could stem from their ‘growth’ patterns and how might they solve their problem? (3)

8. What connections might there be between your knowledge of the Demographic Transition Model (and the findings from this lab) and migration trends and patterns around the world. Incorporate examples into your answer. Research a little as needed. ‘Zelinsky’s Model of Mobility Transition’ will help you ( (3)

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