Daily Note - ETF Action

Daily Note

September 17, 2019

Headlines

Major averages clawed back from a poor start with the S&P 500 (SPY 0.25%), Dow (DIA 0.14%), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ 0.44%) making small gains.

? The market is expecting a 25 bps rate cut tomorrow at the conclusion of the September FOMC meeting which began today. Given the stronger than expected macro data over the past month it seems unlikely the Fed will surprise with a larger 50 bps cut which will turn all eyes to future expectations. However, the WSJ reported that due to several unknowns (U.S.-China trade, Brexit, Saudi oil attack) the data driven Fed is unlikely to promise additional cuts. This dynamic makes sense to us and puts pressure on Fed Chair Powell to try and walk a fine line between the present situation (good) and future expectations (deteriorating).

? The agenda for the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for October is starting to take shape with lower level meetings being held in D.C. tomorrow. Consensus seems to be growing around the idea of smaller deal with major structural reform unlikely in the near term. Reuters pointed out in a well written and informative article that regardless if a short-term deal is found, there's been a "Tectonic Shift" on how Beijing is viewed with the otherwise bitterly divided Congress being "united about the need for systemic reform in China".

Macroeconomic

? Industrial Production increased 0.6% in August, easily beating expectations of a 0.2% rise. Manufacturing which makes up 75% of U.S. industrial output increased a solid 0.5% despite slowing exports due to weak global growth and strong dollar. After a dismal start to the year, factory output has increased by 0.2% per month over the past four months in a sign that manufacturing may have bottomed.

? NAHB Housing Index registered a solid 68 in September which is 1-point above the revised higher 67 in August. Low mortgage rates are clearly having a positive impact which is most noticeable in the very solid reading of 75 for current sales (+2 points m/m) and should be a good sign for the more closely watched new home sales data tracked by the government.

Earnings & Movers

? In a headline that must have made supporters of 'The New Green Deal' cringe, Bloomberg published a report titled: "What's Behind the World's Biggest Climate Victory? Capitalism". It's an excellent read and supports the recent impressive returns in clean energy ETFs after years of below market returns. The genesis of the article is that technology improvement is making clean, alternative energy more economical than fossil fuels. We wrote about the strong growth estimates of clean energy ETFs earlier in the year and while valuations currently look a bit stretched, we still remain bullish on the space. The top 3 performing broad based ETFs in the category YTD (as of yesterday) include a 45.43% return from the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW 1.00%), 40.60% return in the SPDR S&P Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG 1.71%), and a

*Please see important disclosures on last page

38.81% return from the ALPS Clean Energy ETF (ACES 1.26%). From a more targeted approach, the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN 3.35%) has been basking in the sunlight with a whopping 62.70% return on the year.

? Home builder ETFs ((XHB 0.21%), (ITB 0.50%), (HOMZ 0.19%)) were mixed today with a downgrade of Home Depot (HD -0.34%) by Guggenheim off-setting strong macro data (above). The basis for the downgrade was centered around current valuations in relation to a large investment plan by the company that may weigh on margin growth. While we don't have an opinion on Home Depot specifically, we still find the broader sector attractive. Using the equally weighted SPDR Home Builders ETF (XHB), forward P/E currently sits at 13.91 which is below the 5-yr average (15.87) and significantly lower than the highs at the end of 2017 (17.41). Couple that with low mortgage rates and while not as bullish as we were to the start the year, we still think the category can outpace the broader market in the short to mid-term.

ETF Beta Trackers

U.S. Size & Style: A return to large-caps (IVV 0.24%) and growth names (IVW 0.46%) helped reverse the value/small-cap trend over past week. All other sizes and styles declined (but not by much) with mid-cap value (IJJ -0.56%) lagging. Looking at internals, small-caps struggled to find footing above their moving averages over the past month but as of yesterday more than 77% of holdings in the iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF (IJR) are trading above their 50 day moving averages and still not overheating from a relative strength standpoint.

U.S. Sectors: Nine of 11 sectors advanced with leadership coming from defensive/higher yielding real estate (XLRE 1.41%) and utilities (XLU 0.87%) leading up to a widely expected cut from the Fed tomorrow. News that Saudi's plant production will be restored within several weeks caused crude oil to retreat from yesterday's climb, taking the energy sector (XLE -1.39%) with it. Oil & gas production (XOP -5.32%) and O&P services (XES -5.59%) were down with the crude oil trade while MLP's (AMLP 0.32%) help up nicely. YTD, tech (XLK 0.41%) leads all sectors (+31.9%) followed by real estate (+28.8%) whereas health care (XLV 0.15%) lags (+6.5%).

International Equity: Dev ex-U.S. (EFA 0.34%) rose with gains coming from Europe (IEV 0.48%), Australia (EWA 0.62%), and Japan (EWJ 0.37%) while emerging markets (EEM 0.00%) traded sideways. Latin America (ILF 1.31%) was up whereas China (MCHI -0.26%) was the lone EM Asia beta tracker to fall.

Fixed Income: Treasury yields declined ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting leaving the 10-year at 1.81% and the 2-year at 1.73%. Fixed income ETFs were up modestly (AGG 0.15%) while investment grade (LQD 0.26%) outpaced high yield (HYG 0.06%) on the credit side. Interestingly, long dated treasuries (TLT 0.55%) have consistently been in an uptrend since last November and finding a floor at the 50 DMA. After its most recent extension and retreat, TLT is right back at the 50 DMA prior to tomorrow's Fed announcement.

Dollar & Commodities: A rise in precious metals (DBP 0.30%) was not enough to overcome the drop in energy commodities (DBE -3.29%), particularly Brent (BNO -5.73%) and WTI crude (USO -4.21%). Broad commodities (DJP -1.80%) declined near 2% while the Dollar (UUP -0.45%) pulled back as well.

S&P 500 (SPY) - Intraday

301.0

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Daily Note

S&P 500

Broad Markets

Daily Return

SPY 0.25%

1 Wk Return

0.94%

YTD Return

20.90%

1 YR Return

5.38%

52 Wk Low

$234.34

50 DMA 200 DMA 52 Wk Price Meter

52 Wk High

$302.01

Dow Jones Ind DIA 0.14% Avg

Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.48%

0.81% 16.98% 5.26% $218.1 1.03% 25.06% 6.80% $143.5

$273.6 $195.29

Developed Ex- EFA 0.34% US

Emerging Markets

EEM 0.00%

US Fixed Income

AGG 0.15%

1.14% 11.55% -0.92% $56.89 1.21% 7.30% 2.20% $38.0 -0.32% 6.13% 7.86% $104.01

$68.69 $44.59 $114.13

U.S. Size/Style

Large Cap Value Large Cap Blend Large Cap Growth Mid Cap Value Mid Cap Blend Mid Cap Growth Small Cap Value Small Cap Blend Small Cap Growth

Daily % YTD % Fixed Income

IVE 0.03%

19.95%

US Core Fixed Income

IVV 0.24%

20.76%

US Government Bonds

IVW 0.46%

21.61%

US TIPS

IJK -0.13%

19.41%

Investment Grade Corp

IJH -0.36%

18.55%

High Yield Corp

IJJ

-0.56%

17.59%

Municipal Bonds

IJS -0.31%

17.55%

Mortgage Backed

IJR -0.22%

16.49%

Preferreds

IJT

0.03%

15.41%

Emerging Mkt Debt

AGG GOVT

TIP LQD HYG MUB MBB PFF EMB

Daily %

0.15% 0.23% 0.13% 0.25% 0.06% 0.12% 0.04% 0.32% 0.32%

YTD %

6.13% 5.70% 5.96% 12.30% 9.31% 4.57% 3.96% 10.10% 10.44%

Rates*

2 Year US Treasury Yield 10 Year US Treasury Yield 30 Year US Treasury Yield Aaa to 10 Yr Spread Baa to 10 Yr Spread

Today

1.73% 1.80% 2.27% 1.38% 2.24%

1 Wk Ago

1.59% 1.64% 2.13% 1.35% 2.22%

*Spreads are provided on 1 day lag



*Please see important disclosures on last page

? Copyright 2019, ETF Action, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

U.S. Sectors

Financials Consumer Disc. Industrials Real Estate Technology Materials Energy Comm Services Health Care Cons. Staples Utilities

Daily Note

XLF XLY XLI XLRE XLK XLB XLE XLC XLV XLP XLU

Daily %

0.11% 0.61% -0.05% 1.41% 0.41% 0.81% -1.39% 0.10% 0.15% 0.55% 0.87%

YTD %

19.88% 24.18% 23.69% 28.20% 31.53% 16.55% 9.44% 24.11% 6.10% 20.28% 20.88%

U.S. Industries

Top 3

Insurance Health Care Equipment Software & Services

Bottom 3

Health Care Services Oil & Gas Exploration & Prodution Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Daily % YTD %

KIE XHE XSW

0.89% 0.50% 0.43%

24.63% 15.20% 29.78%

XHS -1.33% XOP -5.32%

XES -5.59%

4.19% -7.11%

-6.00%

Themes

Top 3

Solar Global Infrastructure FinTech

Bottom 3

US Infrastructure Autonomous Vehicles Marijuana

Daily % YTD %

TAN IGF FINX

3.35% 1.30% 1.24%

68.14% 16.76% 33.23%

PAVE DRIV

MJ

-0.33% -0.74% -2.15%

22.34% 15.87% -3.05%

Regions

U.S. Latin America Europe Developed Asia Emerging Asia Africa Middle East

SPY ILF VGK IPAC EEMA AFK GULF

Daily %

0.25% 1.31% 0.43% 0.37% 0.09% -0.31% -1.90%

YTD %

20.90% 5.35% 12.25% 12.01% 6.87% 6.18% 5.25%

Countries

Top 3

Mexico Pakistan Brazil

Bottom 3

Russia South Africa Egypt

EWW PAK EWZ

ERUS EZA EGPT

Daily % YTD %

1.77% 1.30% 1.20%

6.39% -22.68% 12.20%

-1.15% -1.52% -2.64%

30.81% 2.80% 17.53%

Commodities

Broad-based Energy Precious Metals Industrial Metals Agriculture US Dollar

DJP DBE DBP DBB DBA UUP

Daily %

-1.80% -3.29% 0.30% -0.33% -0.83% -0.45%

YTD %

5.70% 13.42% 15.60% -2.47% -8.74% 4.99%



*Please see important disclosures on last page

? Copyright 2019, ETF Action, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

1 Year Price Charts

SPY - S&P 500

300

290

280

270

260

250

240

230

October

2019

April

July

175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125

October

IWM - Russell 2000

2019

April

July

AGG - U.S. Agg Bond

115

114

113

112

111

110

109

108

107

106

105

104

103

October

2019

April

July



*Please see important disclosures on last page

Daily Note

DIA - Dow Jones Ind Avg

270 260 250 240 230 220

October

2019

April

July

EFA - Developed Ex-U.S.

70

68

66

64

62

60

58

56

October

2019

April

July

150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110

October

GLD - Gold

2019

April

July

200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140

October

QQQ - Nasdaq 100

2019

April

July

EEM - Emerging Markets

47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38

October

2019

April

July

USO - WTI Crude Oil

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

October

2019

April

July

? Copyright 2019, ETF Action, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

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