Projections of Education Statistics to 2024
Projections of Education
Statistics to 2024
Forty-third Edition
2021
2023
2021
2023
20
2022
2024
020
2022
2024
NCES 2016-013
U . S . D E PA R T M E N T O F E D U C AT I O N
Projections of Education
Statistics to 2024
Forty-third Edition
September 2016
William J. Hussar
National Center for Education Statistics
Tabitha M. Bailey
IHS Global Inc.
NCES 2016-013
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
U.S. Department of Education
John B. King, Jr.
Secretary
Institute of Education Sciences
Ruth Neild
Deputy Director for Policy and Research
Delegated Duties of the Director
National Center for Education Statistics
Peggy G. Carr
Acting Commissioner
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting
data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,
and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and
specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving
their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.
NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and
accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department
of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless
specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.
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September 2016
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This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-IES-14-O-5005 with IHS Global Inc. Mention of trade names,
commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Suggested Citation
Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2016). Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 (NCES 2016-013). U.S. Department of Education,
National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Content Contact
William J. Hussar
(202) 245-6389
william.hussar@
Foreword
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 is the 43rd report
in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary
and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary
institutions. This report provides revisions of projections
shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2023 and
projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and
expenditures to the year 2024.
In addition to projections at the national level, the report
includes projections of public elementary and secondary
school enrollment and public high school graduates to the
year 2024 at the state level. The projections in this report
were produced by the National Center for Education
Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,
and others with state-level projections developed using a
consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant
detailed projections prepared for individual states.
Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are
the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.
NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,
or local education policies that may affect education statistics.
Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology
and describes the models and assumptions used to develop
the national and state projections. The enrollment models use
enrollment data and population estimates and projections from
NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on
the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.
The models also use projections of economic variables from
IHS Global Inc., an economic forecasting service.
The projections presented in this report are based on the
2010 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal
migration, net immigration, and mortality rate from the
Census Bureau. For further information, see appendix A.
Thomas D. Snyder, Supervisor
Annual Reports and Information Staff
National Center for Education Statistics
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024??? iii
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