EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS Pocketbook 2016/17

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

2

2 Number of Vehicles

14

3 Fuel Consumption & CO2

26

4 Technologies

42

5 Key Technical Parameters

52

6 Other Emissions & On-road

68

Annex

Remarks on Data Sources

72

List of Figures and Tables

74

References

78

Abbreviations

80

Tables

81

An electronic version of this Pocketbook including more detailed statistical data is available online:

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17

1INTRODUCTION

The 2016/17 edition of European Vehicle Market Statistics offers a statistical portrait of passenger car, light commercial and heavy-duty vehicle fleets in the European Union (EU) from 2001 to 2015. As in previous editions, the emphasis is on vehicle technologies, fuel consumption, and emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants.

The following pages give a concise overview of data in subsequent chapters and also summarize the latest regulatory developments in the EU. More comprehensive tables are included in the annex, along with information on sources.

Number of vehicles After declining for several years, new passenger

car registrations in the EU increased to about 13.7 million in 2015. That number is 12% below where it was before the economic crisis, when some 15.6 million cars were sold annually in the EU, but at the same time it represents 1 million more vehicles sold than just one year before, in 2014. The decline in vehicle sales after the economic crisis was most pronounced for the southern EU Member States. In Spain, the number of new car registrations has fallen by about 50% since 2007. But vehicle sales in the region are rising again; 2015 registrations in Spain were about 20% above the previous year and at the highest level since 2008.

By far the strongest growth in vehicle sales took place in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment. More than 3 million new cars in 2015 were SUVs, or about three times as many as 10 years before.

2

Registrations (million) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Market share EU-28 in 2015 (in %)

100

90

Others

SUV/ Off-Road

80

Van

Sport

70

Luxury

Upper Medium

60

Medium

50

Lower Medium

40

30

Fig. 1-1

Passenger cars: Registrations by vehicle segment

Small

20

10

Mini

0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200 6 2007 2008 2009 201 0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Data source: ACEA; data until 2007 is for EU-25 only

The European market remains centered on a handful of countries. Some 75% of all new passenger car registrations occur in the five largest markets (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain). But in terms of makes and manufacturers, the market is much more diverse: the top seven brands capture less than 50% of the market.

This is very different from the heavy-duty vehicle market. Only five manufacturer groups dominate EU truck sales. Together they account for nearly 100% of all new vehicle registrations (0.4 million vehicles in 2015). In contrast to some other heavy-duty vehicle markets, the same manufacturer usually makes both the vehicle and its engine in Europe. Therefore, the heavy-duty engine market in Europe is also dominated by the same five manufacturers. In 2016 the European Commission provided evidence for cartel behavior among heavy-duty truck manufacturers in Europe, finding them guilty of price fixing as well as delaying the introduction of emissionreduction technologies and issuing a record penalty of 2.93 billion.

3

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17

Internationally, total vehicle sales (passenger cars and commercial vehicles) increased at a somewhat slower pace than in 2014. While Turkey, Mexico, South Korea, the EU, India, the United States, and China saw robust growth, sales were flat or declined in Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia. Total vehicle sales in Turkey increased by 25%, while vehicle sales in Russia dropped by 35% in 2015. Over the past five years much of the growth was concentrated in just two countries, China and the United States, which together accounted for 50% of global vehicle sales. Growth outside the top 15 markets accelerated: car and truck sales in those smaller markets increased by 3%, while the average vehicle sales growth rate in the top 15 markets was closer to 2%. Emerging market economies with very high growth in the past few years ? Brazil, Russia, and Thailand ? continued to experience declines in sales in 2015.

Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions The official level of average carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions from new passenger cars in the EU, as measured in the laboratory test procedure, fell to 120 grams per kilometer (g/km) in 2015 (EEA, 2016). This is significantly lower than the 130 g/km target set by the EU CO2 regulation for 2015. CO2 emissions and fuel consumption are directly linked, so that the current level of emissions amounts to about 5.0 liters/100 km.

In 2012, the European Commission formally proposed an average CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km for 2020, which in terms of fuel consumption equates to about 3.8 liters/100 km. Details of the proposal had been under discussion in the European Parliament and the European Council in the first half of 2013, with the European Parliament proposing some changes to the European Commission docu-

4

1Introduction

ment, including a 2025 target range of 68?78 g/km of CO2. In November 2013, a final compromise was reached, and the regulation was formally adopted in March 2014.

Under the new EU regulation, only 95% of the new vehicle fleet must comply with the 95 g/km target by 2020 (Mock, 2014a). After one year of phase-in, from 2021 all new vehicles will be taken into account for calculating manufacturers' fleet averages. CO2 emission targets for every manufacturer are adjusted for the average weight of their specific vehicles, so that manufacturers of heavier vehicles get a less stringent target to meet. In percentage terms, the required reduction is the same for every manufacturer: 27% from 2015 to 2020/21. So-called super-credits for vehicles with CO2 emissions lower than 50 g/km are also taken into account: these vehicles count double in 2020, with the multiplier factor reduced to 1.0 by 2023 (Diaz et al., 2016).

Fuel consumption (liters/100 km) 50

45

40

Fig. 1-2

Comparison of tractor-trailer fuel consumption trends for U.S. and EU



35

30

25 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

EU real-world testing US regulatory baseline

US Phase 1 reductions US Phase 2 reductions

2025

2030

Model year

5

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17

Light commercial vehicles (i.e., commercial vehicles below 3.5 metric tons gross vehicle weight) have their own CO2 emission standard. The 2017 target requires an average fleet emission level of 175 g/km ? a level that was reached in 2013. A new regulation setting a 2020 target of 147 g/km was adopted in February 2014. As for passenger cars, vehicle weight is taken into account when calculating manufacturer-specific CO2 targets.

For heavy-duty vehicles, the on-road fuel consumption (and thereby also CO2 emission) level of new tractor-trailer trucks in the EU has remained fairly constant since the early 2000s (Muncrief and Sharpe, 2015). Over the last few years, the European Commission has developed VECTO, a computer simulation tool to determine CO2 emission levels of new heavy-duty vehicles. The Commission expects that this new tool will provide greater transparency and better comparability for CO2 emission performance and fuel consumption of trucks and buses. The EU is the only major truck market in the world without a CO2 emission regulation (Muncrief, 2014). However, as part of its communication on de-carbonizing the road vehicle sector, the European Commission announced in July 2016 to work towards the introduction of mandatory efficiency standards for new heavy-duty vehicles, with the objective of "curbing emissions well before 2030" (EC, 2016).

Technologies The vast majority of Europe's new cars remain

powered by gasoline or diesel motors. Diesel cars account for 52% of all new registrations in 2015. This is despite the recent "Dieselgate" scandal and differs notably from other major car markets. The U.S., Chinese, and Japanese markets are all dominated by gasoline-powered cars, with diesels playing almost no role. One market of note that has embraced diesel technology, however, is India, where the diesel share was around 50% in 2015.

6

1Introduction

Market share (new sales) of electric passenger cars

Norway Netherlands

2013 2012

2014

Fig. 1-3

2015 2012?2015 sales of electric vehicles



California

Sweden

Denmark

US (incl. California)

France

United Kingdom

China

Austria

Germany

Japan

Full battery electric vehicles Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

0

5

10

15

20

25

in %

The market share of hybrid-electric vehicles in the EU was 1.5% of all new car sales in 2015. In the Netherlands (3.3%) and France (2.2%) hybrid vehicles make up a much larger share of the market than in the rest of EU Member States, with fewer hybrid vehicles sold in the Netherlands than in previous years, due to a change in the national vehicle taxation scheme. More than one-fourth of all new Toyotas sold in the EU were hybrid-electric. For comparison, in Japan more than 19% of all new car sales in 2015 were hybrids, and in the U.S. the share of hybridelectric passenger cars was around 5%.

7

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download