European vehicle market statistics 2018/2019

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS

Pocketbook 2018/19

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

2

2 Number of Vehicles

12

3 Fuel Consumption & CO2

24

4 Technologies

40

5 Key Technical Parameters

50

6 Other Emissions & On-road

66

Annex

Remarks on Data Sources

70

List of Figures & Tables

72

References

76

Abbreviations

78

Tables

79

An electronic version of this Pocketbook including more detailed statistical data is available online:

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2018/19

1INTRODUCTION

The 2018/19 edition of European Vehicle Market Statistics offers a statistical portrait of passenger car, light commercial and heavy-duty vehicle fleets in the European Union (EU) from 2001 to 2017. As in previous editions, the emphasis is on vehicle technologies, fuel consumption, and emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants.

The following pages give a concise overview of data in subsequent chapters and also summarize the latest regulatory developments in the EU. More comprehensive tables are included in the annex, along with information on sources.

Number of vehicles In 2017, new car registrations in the EU increased

to 15.2 million, which is the highest level since 2007. During the economic crisis, sales had reached a low point in 2013, with 11.8 million sales. A notable exception to the upwards trend is the United Kingdom (UK), where new car registrations dropped by 6% compared to 2016. As in previous years, by far the strongest growth in vehicle sales took place in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment. About 4.3 million new cars in 2017 were SUVs, more than 6 times as many as 15 years before. At the same time, small diesel, small gasoline, and medium-sized diesel vehicles ? all with comparatively low CO2 emission values ? lost more than 9 percentage points from 2015 to 2017. These relatively small vehicles were replaced by medium-sized gasoline vehicles and SUVs. The increase in the latter group was particularly problematic for fleet-average CO2 reductions, because SUVs had comparatively high CO2 emission values. (Fig. 1-1).

2

Market share (%) 25

Medium

-1 g/km,

20

-5.8 pp

15

10

Small -2 g/km, -1.6 pp

Market shares of small to

medium vehicles with

comparatively low CO2 emissions increased by more

than 9 percentage points

SUV -6 g/km, -0.3 pp

Year 2015 2017

Fuel type Diesel Petrol

Medium -3 g/km, -2.5 pp

SUV -5 g/km, -4.6 pp

Market shares of medium-sized

vehicles and SUVs with

comparatively high CO2 emissions increased by more

than 7 percentage points

5 Small

-4 g/km, -1.9 pp

Other -7 g/km, -0.2 pp

Other -12 g/km,

0.6 pp

Fig. 1-1

Change in market shares and average CO2 emission values from 2015 to 2017, by segment and fuel type



0

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Average CO2 emissions (g/km, NEDC)

In the aftermath of the Dieselgate scandal, sales of new diesel cars dropped significantly. In 2011?2012, about 55% of newly registered cars in the EU were powered by diesel fuel, an all-time high. Since then, the market share of diesel first decreased slowly, to 49% in 2016, but then dropped more quickly, to 44% in 2017. However, the market developments vary by member state. For example, in France, where the diesel market share used to be significantly higher than the EU average, the market share dropped from a high of 77% in 2008 to 47% by 2016. This decline in diesel car sales began before Dieselgate and is likely related to the fact that the French government is leveling out taxes on diesel and gasoline fuel. In Germany, on the other hand, the diesel market share remained stable over the past five years (at about 48%) but began dropping noticeably towards the end of 2016, reaching a level of 33% in December 2017. This recent decrease in diesel car sales is likely due to a loss in trust from consumers who are increasingly worried about the threat of diesel bans in urban areas.

3

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2018/19

Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions The official level of average carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions from new passenger cars in the EU, as measured in the laboratory via the type-approval test procedure, increased to 119 grams per kilometer (g/km) in 2017, which is 1 g/km higher than in the previous year (Tietge, 2018a). CO2 emissions and fuel consumption are directly linked, so the current level of emissions amounts to about 5 liters/100 km. As explained in the previous section, it is mostly the shift to larger vehicle segments, not merely the shift away from diesel, that explains this recent slowdown in fleet-average CO2 emission reductions (Mock, 2018a).

Fig. 1-2

Required fleetaverage CO2 reductions to be in line with EU and international climate protection agreements



CO2 (million tonnes)

1,000 900

Direct CO2 emissions from road transport in the EU

800

700

600 E ort Sharing Regulation (30% below 2015)

500

Road transport CO (2005?2030)

-20 %

-25 % -29 % -33 % -36 % -39 %

New vehicle CO 2030* Cars and vans Trucks

-20 %

-20 %

-30 %

-30 %

-40 %

-40 %

-50 % -60 %

-70 %

-50 % -50 %

-50 %

400

300 2 degree Celsius scenario

200

100 Beyond 2 degree Celsius scenario (In line with Paris Agreement)

0

EC's LDV and HDV proposals

* Compared to 2019 baseline for rigid trucks and tractor trucks, 2020 for vans and 2021 for cars.

4

1Introduction

In 2012, the European Commission formally proposed an average CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km for 2020, which in terms of fuel consumption equates to about 4 liters/100 km. Details of the proposal had been under discussion in the European Parliament and the European Council in the first half of 2013, with the European Parliament proposing some changes to the European Commission document, including a 2025 target range of 68?78 g/km of CO2. In November 2013, a final compromise was reached, and the regulation was formally adopted in March 2014. Under the new EU regulation, only 95% of the new vehicle fleet must comply with the 95 g/km target by 2020. After one year of phase-in, from 2021 all new vehicles will be taken into account for calculating manufacturers' fleet averages (Mock, 2014).

Light commercial vehicles (i.e., commercial vehicles below 3.5 metric tons gross vehicle weight) have their own CO2 emission standard. The 2017 target requires an average fleet emission level of 175 g/km ? a level that was reached in 2013. A regulation setting a 2020 target of 147 g/km was adopted in February 2014.

In November 2017, the European Commission came forward with a regulatory proposal for CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles for the time period up to 2030 (Dornoff et al., 2018). The original proposal includes a fleet-wide CO2 reduction target of 15% for 2025 and 30% for 2030. As part of ongoing political negotiations, it is expected that the European Parliament and the Council (the EU member state governments) will strengthen the regulatory proposal, before it will get adopted ? most likely ? in early-2019.

5

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2018/19

For heavy-duty vehicles, the European Commission came forward with a regulatory proposal in May 2018. As for light-duty vehicles, it includes a CO2 reduction target of 15% for 2025 and 30% for 2030 (but with reference to a 2019 baseline) (Rodr?guez and Delgado, 2018). Up until now, the EU remains the only major truck market in the world without a CO2 emission regulation (Muncrief, 2014). The proposed regulation would only cover the largest categories of trucks, but is likely to be amended by further regulations then covering smaller trucks as well as trailers.

To be in line with the EU's climate protection target for 2030, the cars/vans and truck regulations would need to be strengthened, to include a CO2 reduction target of 40?50% for 2030 (Fig. 1-2). In order to meet the Paris climate protection agreement, even higher reductions of up to 70% for light-duty vehicles would be necessary by 2030 (Rodr?guez, 2018).

Technologies The vast majority of Europe's new cars remain

powered by gasoline or diesel motors. The market share of hybrid-electric vehicles in the EU was 2.7% of all new car sales in 2017. Sales of hybrid-electric cars went up in particular in Spain, where the market share increased from 1.8% in 2015 to 4.5% in 2017. This is even higher than in the Netherlands (4.2%), which used to be the EU's leading country in terms of hybrid-electric car sales for many years. Toyota continues to dominate the market for hybrid-electric cars in Europe, with about 49% of all new Toyota vehicles in 2017 being hybrid-electric.

6

1Introduction

CO2 savings from eco-innovations (g/km) 5 4

3

2

Average, all vehicles Average, eco-innovation vehicles Maximum, individual vehicles

Fig. 1-3

CO2 savings from eco-innovations by vehicle brand in 2017, sorted by brand-average CO2 savings



1

0

Mercedes- BMW Porsche Mini Honda Skoda Mazda Opel Smart VW Benz

In 2017, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and batteryelectric vehicles (BEV) made up about 1.4% of vehicle registrations in the EU. This is a slight increase compared to the previous year. The market share is much higher in the case of BMW (5.8%), which is currently the leading manufacturer in terms of electric vehicle sales within the EU. Renault-Nissan and Daimler, which rank second and third in terms of electric-vehicle market share, each sell only about 2% of their new cars as electric. Outside the EU, sales of electric vehicles are particularly high in Norway. 39% of new cars sold there in 2017 were electric, and an additional 13% were hybrid-electric vehicles. Such high market shares are attributable at least in part to generous fiscal incentives provided by the Norwegian government.

7

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download