EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS

EUROPEAN VEHICLE

MARKET STATISTICS

Pocketbook 2016/17

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

2

2 Number of Vehicles

14

3 Fuel Consumption & CO2

26

4 Technologies

42

5 Key Technical Parameters

52

6 Other Emissions & On-road

68

Annex

Remarks on Data Sources

List of Figures and Tables

References

Abbreviations

Tables

72

74

78

80

81

An electronic version of this Pocketbook including

more detailed statistical data is available online:



EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17

1 INTRODUCTION

Market share EU-28

in 2015 (in %)

Registrations (million)

16

Number of vehicles

After declining for several years, new passenger

car registrations in the EU increased to about

13.7 million in 2015. That number is 12"% below where

it was before the economic crisis, when some

15.6 million cars were sold annually in the EU, but at

the same time it represents 1 million more vehicles

sold than just one year before, in 2014. The decline in

vehicle sales after the economic crisis was most

pronounced for the southern EU Member States.

In Spain, the number of new car registrations has fallen

by about 50"% since 2007. But vehicle sales in

the region are rising again; 2015 registrations in Spain

were about 20"% above the previous year and

at the highest level since 2008.

By far the strongest growth in vehicle sales

took place in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment.

More than 3 million new cars in 2015 were SUVs,

or about three times as many as 10 years before.

2

90

14

Others

SUV/

Off-Road

Van

Sport

Luxury

Upper

Medium

Medium

12

10

8

Lower

Medium

6

80

Fig. 1-1

Passenger cars:

Registrations by

vehicle segment

70

60

50

40

30

4

Small

2

20

10

Mini

0

2015

2014

2013

2011

2012

2010

2009

2007

2008

2006

2005

2004

2003

2001

0

2002

The 2016/17 edition of European Vehicle Market

Statistics offers a statistical portrait of passenger car,

light commercial and heavy-duty vehicle fleets in

the European Union (EU) from 2001 to 2015.

As in previous editions, the emphasis is on vehicle

technologies, fuel consumption, and emissions of

greenhouse gases and other air pollutants.

The following pages give a concise overview

of data in subsequent chapters and also summarize

the latest regulatory developments in the EU.

More comprehensive tables are included in the annex,

along with information on sources.

100

Data source: ACEA; data until 2007 is for EU-25 only

The European market remains centered on

a handful of countries. Some 75"% of all new passenger

car registrations occur in the five largest markets

(Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy,

and Spain). But in terms of makes and manufacturers,

the market is much more diverse: the top seven

brands capture less than 50"% of the market.

This is very different from the heavy-duty vehicle

market. Only five manufacturer groups dominate

EU truck sales. Together they account for nearly 100"%

of all new vehicle registrations (0.4 million vehicles

in 2015). In contrast to some other heavy-duty vehicle

markets, the same manufacturer usually makes

both the vehicle and its engine in Europe. Therefore,

the heavy-duty engine market in Europe is

also dominated by the same five manufacturers.

In 2016 the European Commission provided evidence

for cartel behavior among heavy-duty truck manufacturers in Europe, finding them guilty of price fixing

as well as delaying the introduction of emissionreduction technologies and issuing a record penalty

of €$2.93 billion.

3

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17

Internationally, total vehicle sales (passenger

cars and commercial vehicles) increased at a

somewhat slower pace than in 2014. While Turkey,

Mexico, South Korea, the EU, India, the United

States, and China saw robust growth, sales were flat

or declined in Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Japan,

Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia. Total vehicle

sales in Turkey increased by 25"%, while vehicle

sales in Russia dropped by 35"% in 2015. Over the past

five years much of the growth was concentrated

in just two countries, China and the United States,

which together accounted for 50"% of global

vehicle sales. Growth outside the top 15 markets

accelerated: car and truck sales in those smaller

markets increased by 3"%, while the average vehicle

sales growth rate in the top 15 markets was

closer to 2"%. Emerging market economies with very

high growth in the past few years ¨C Brazil, Russia,

and Thailand ¨C continued to experience declines in

sales in 2015.

Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

The official level of average carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions from new passenger cars in the EU,

as measured in the laboratory test procedure, fell to

120 grams per kilometer (g/km) in 2015 (EEA, 2016).

This is significantly lower than the 130 g/km target set

by the EU CO2 regulation for 2015. CO2 emissions

and fuel consumption are directly linked, so that the

current level of emissions amounts to about

5.0 liters/100 km.

In 2012, the European Commission formally

proposed an average CO2 emissions target of

95 g/km for 2020, which in terms of fuel consumption

equates to about 3.8 liters/100 km. Details of the

proposal had been under discussion in the European

Parliament and the European Council in the first

half of 2013, with the European Parliament proposing

some changes to the European Commission docu-

4

1 Introduction

ment, including a 2025 target range of 68¨C78 g/km

of CO2 . In November 2013, a final compromise

was reached, and the regulation was formally adopted

in March 2014.

Under the new EU regulation, only 95"% of

the new vehicle fleet must comply with the 95 g/km

target by 2020 (Mock, 2014a). After one year

of phase-in, from 2021 all new vehicles will be taken

into account for calculating manufacturers¡¯ fleet

averages. CO2 emission targets for every manufacturer

are adjusted for the average weight of their

specific vehicles, so that manufacturers of heavier

vehicles get a less stringent target to meet.

In percentage terms, the required reduction is the

same for every manufacturer: 27"% from 2015

to 2020/21. So-called super-credits for vehicles

with CO2 emissions lower than 50 g/km are

also taken into account: these vehicles count double

in 2020, with the multiplier factor reduced to

1.0 by 2023 (Diaz et al., 2016).

Fig. 1-2

Fuel consumption (liters/100 km)

50

Comparison of

tractor-trailer fuel

consumption

trends for U.S. and

EU

45



40

35

30

25

2000

2005

EU real-world testing

US regulatory baseline

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Model year

US Phase 1 reductions

US Phase 2 reductions

5

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17

Light commercial vehicles (i."e., commercial

vehicles below 3.5 metric tons gross vehicle weight)

have their own CO2 emission standard. The 2017

target requires an average fleet emission level of

175 g/km ¨C a level that was reached in 2013.

A new regulation setting a 2020 target of 147 g/km

was adopted in February 2014. As for passenger

cars, vehicle weight is taken into account

when calculating manufacturer-specific CO2 targets.

For heavy-duty vehicles, the on-road fuel

consumption (and thereby also CO2 emission) level

of new tractor-trailer trucks in the EU has remained

fairly constant since the early 2000s (Muncrief

and Sharpe, 2015). Over the last few years, the European Commission has developed VECTO,

a computer simulation tool to determine CO2 emission

levels of new heavy-duty vehicles. The Commission

expects that this new tool will provide greater

transparency and better comparability for CO2 emission performance and fuel consumption of trucks

and buses. The EU is the only major truck market in

the world without a CO2 emission regulation

(Muncrief, 2014). However, as part of its communication on de-carbonizing the road vehicle sector,

the European Commission announced in July 2016

to work towards the introduction of mandatory

efficiency standards for new heavy-duty vehicles,

with the objective of ¡°curbing emissions well

before 2030¡± (EC, 2016).

Technologies

The vast majority of Europe¡¯s new cars remain

powered by gasoline or diesel motors. Diesel

cars account for 52"% of all new registrations in 2015.

This is despite the recent ¡°Dieselgate¡± scandal

and differs notably from other major car markets.

The U.S., Chinese, and Japanese markets are

all dominated by gasoline-powered cars, with diesels

playing almost no role. One market of note that

has embraced diesel technology, however, is India,

where the diesel share was around 50"% in 2015.

6

1 Introduction

Fig. 1-3

Market share (new sales) of electric passenger cars

Norway

2012

2015

2014

2013

2012¨C2015 sales of

electric vehicles



Netherlands

California

Sweden

Denmark

US

(incl. California)

France

United Kingdom

China

Austria

Germany

Full battery electric vehicles

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

in %

The market share of hybrid-electric vehicles

in the EU was 1.5"% of all new car sales in 2015.

In the Netherlands (3.3"%) and France (2.2"%)

hybrid vehicles make up a much larger share of the

market than in the rest of EU Member States,

with fewer hybrid vehicles sold in the Netherlands

than in previous years, due to a change in

the national vehicle taxation scheme. More than

one-fourth of all new Toyotas sold in the EU

were hybrid-electric. For comparison, in Japan

more than 19"% of all new car sales in 2015

were hybrids, and in the U.S. the share of hybridelectric passenger cars was around 5"%.

7

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