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What is the impact of social change and technology on demographic transition?Jason DuncanGlobal Studies and World Languages Academy at Tallwood High SchoolMr. Falls12/16/13AbstractThe title of this project is the impact of changing social roles and improving technology on demographic transition. In this project, the researcher intends to compare three countries, one with a growing population, one with a stable population, and one that is shrinking. For each of these three categories the researcher plans to use Ghana, the United States, and Japan to emulate each of the population transitions respectively worldwide. Mrs. Windish, an AP Human Geography teacher, is a possible inside advisor to this project as she is knowledgeable on the subject matter on demographic transition. Mr. Fortune, an AP Government teacher, is also a possible advisor as he would understand the numerous impacts and relating factors regarding political instability and economic consequences of population change over time. Ms. Brown is a possible outside advisor as she is a participant in a government study abroad program and is currently living abroad in Ghana for a year, and has access to numerous primary sources on the shifting population.The role of this project is to spread awareness about the shifting population and inform listeners to this presentation on the impact this will cause to the global economy in the future. The researcher plans to share this research in a presentation format. For this research paper a variety of online sources will be collectively used to amass sufficient data to analyze. If time permits, a survey will take place as well. The researcher is excited to begin this journey to discovering the intricacies of demographic transition.IntroductionThe demographics of the world are changing and there are many factors behind it. Developing countries are experiencing explosive population and economic growth, while developed countries continue to stagnate. The U.S. is no longer the sole superpower as China and India continue to dominate the manufacturing and technology sectors and their respective populations have both surpassed 1,000,000,000 people. Income inequality continues to grow at home, while the middle class simultaneously is growing in many countries. As many countries give greater rights to women, education standards become higher, and technology access increases; birth rates have become much lower in the developed world. This all has significant impacts on our lives today and down the road for future generations. The research addresses all these concerns. The research question is what the impact of social change and technological advances has on demographic transition. This is important because it address our country’s economic future in position to the rest of the world. It helps one understand why America continues to face a struggling economy and the state of world affairs. It also shows one reason why Japanese people continue to remain single, while families in Africa continue to have families with more than five children. This project is very original and hasn’t been attempted by anyone else before specifically. The project will focus on growth in America with the influx of Hispanics, Japan with its baby bust, and Ghana with its rapid development. The researcher plans to tie in many areas of education. For example the researcher will draw upon knowledge from economics, statistics, psychology, and environmental science.Limitations of the projectDue to this project’s focus on the comparison between the demographic transitions of Japan, the U.S., and Ghana; one’s ability to travel to all these countries to gain a better perspective is a limitation of the project. Through the project researcher’s experience in hosting an exchange student from Japan and studying abroad in Japan though a scholarship, the project will utilize personal outside references and connections throughout Japan. The writer also has friends who live in the Southern U.S., at the forefront of a Hispanic population boom, one of whom is majoring in political science who also specializes in demographics, will be crucial to my project. Resources are also available to contact, Ms. Brown, who is studying abroad in Ghana for a year. She will be able to lend first-hand knowledge about the change over time and difference in culture from the largely youth population within Ghana. Another limitation is the ability to communicate with these advisors due to the difference of time zones. The scope of the project is to solely focus on these three countries. With three countries one can really go in depth on the details of changing demographics without getting too bogged down in detail. This also allows one to better notice the underlying trends that impact developing and developed countries in this process. Focusing on three countries that are part of different transitional periods will allow for a better sense of the scope of population distributions and the significance of impacts that can apply to other countries as well. The project will primarily focus on causes but will include effects of demographic transition as well. For example, the increasing cost of health care and economic stagnation is a large issue.MethodologyThe research methodology is composing data from government sources and supplementing information through surveys to classmates and an interview to an outside adviser. Government sources, such as a report by the Japanese prime minister, have proven very useful to this project. This report has provided a good basis of information on the demographic transition model, and how Japan’s status as a stage 4 nation bodes for its economy over the next few decades. This research online is quantitative with qualitative analysis on the causes and impacts of demographic transition. The online and book research is supplemented through a two stage cluster sample of Tallwood students. This research will focus primarily on the qualitative opinions on demographic transition by 12th grade academy students. Due to time and schedule restraints, all 12th grade academy students will not be able to respond to the survey so a random table of numbers will aid in the creation of a valid sample. All subjects given will correspond to a value from 00-99 to represent 100% of the possible values. Since there are not 100 academy students, if a value above 66 is recorded it will be ignored and the process of sampling will continue. Through using a table of random numbers, every 2 digits will result in obtaining a value which will respond to a student who will answer the survey. Once 30 valid numbers are obtained, the survey can be fully conducted. Since only academy students will respond who typically have a better understanding of demographic transition, there will be some under coverage non response bias. However, this does not affect the entirety of the project as awareness about the topic is already low. The outside adviser to this project, Ms. Brown, is currently studying abroad for a year in Ghana and is attending school with locals in the community. She has gained first-hand knowledge on development in developing nations, such as Ghana, and will be a continued source of enlightenment for the project. Some interview topics already discussed are the role of electrification, increasing literacy rates, and the changing roles of women in society.Literature ReviewPopulation aging has become a major problem in developed countries in the past few decades as birth rates have stagnated and fallen, and mortality rates have largely decreased. This has caused increasing stress on the welfare and health care system in these individual countries. Immigration can play a big role however in mitigating population loss while also stimulating the economy. A country’s population structure is held hostage to birth rates, death rates, and immigration. For governments that are struggling to maintain a stable population and prevent an upside down pyramid structure the only way to prevent stage 5 population contraction is to increase birth rates, increase death rates of the elderly or lower life expectancy, and increase immigration. Increasing death rates is possible but a horrible solution. This would result in a government plagued by corruption and totalitarianism. Increasing death rates is also unrealistic and would create more problems than it would solve. This leaves two more possible solutions. One is to increase birth rates. This has been difficult to achieve in already developed countries. According to the U.N., aging countries have had a difficult time increasing birth rates and has been an unrealistic solution (United Nations, 2000b; Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, 2000; Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1997). This has been increasingly evident with attempts by the Japanese government to increase birth rates without success. Interestingly though it is easier to decrease birth rates while developing as seen with the One Child Policy in China. Another solution is to promote a friendlier immigration policy to encourage the development of a younger and more plentiful workforce. Numerous organizations have tracked how such immigration impacts a developed country’s workforce and population structure. A study by the European Union has concluded the following. “With the present below-replacement fertility and with no further immigration, the total population of these European countries would be reduced by approximately 20 to 25 per cent by the year 2050. The calculations showed that an overall population decline during the first half of the twenty-first century can be avoided if about one million immigrants move into the area every year. Assuming the same annual migration gain of one million, Lutz (2000) recently showed that the total population of Western Europe would grow by 13 per cent (to 505 million in 2050), as opposed to declining by three percent (to 422 million) in the case of no migration.”A major problem remains however in the scale of immigration a country would need to maintain its population as the true scale of developed countries population loss is astounding. Switzerland is expected to lose about 1.5 million people by 2030 without net migration. (Ulrich (1998)). Switzerland is a country that emulates the problems of remaining a current prosperous nation while ignoring the impending issues related to remaining an isolated country. My information is coming primarily by studies done by the European Union and analysis done by the United Nations. Bias is not a primary issue for my topic as there is no real motive for the United Nations or the European Union to slant data. Work by these factions is primarily factual with few opinions or personal digressions. Statistics largely come from the past two decades. This is important as the world’s population is rapidly shifting and the most up to date information is essential. Many population models for the future are given especially toward 2050. The more up to date a source is, the more likely it is to have more representative data. My research will take information from these sources but I will focus primarily on contrasting Japan, the United States, and Ghana. For Japan, the data will be easy to compare to that of the European Union which is already feeling the increasing pressure on its government welfare. Greece has recently undergone significant problems in reforming its pension system, which Japan will have to soon get on board with and alter. The prime minister and government agencies have already done significant research into the field. Many within the Japanese government ignore this demographic transition as an issue; however initiatives such as giving women greater maternity leave have attempted to mitigate population decline.The United States is an interesting example of a country being sustained by immigrants. The nation’s natural replacement rate of births versus deaths is increasingly lopsided to favor a larger elderly population as the baby boomer generation ages. However, Hispanic immigration has been a major driving force in stimulating the economy of southern regions of the U.S. Resources for demographic transition are easy to obtain for the U.S. as the country is central to many studies done by International research organizations and international organizations such as the United Nations. Ghana is the most difficult country to obtain research on. Research will focus largely on West Africa as a whole as many countries in the region are undergoing the same stresses of population explosion. The outside adviser to this project will largely aid in supplemental material including personal experiences and primary sources from Ghana, as she currently lives there.Main BodyThe impact social change and technological innovation have had on demographic transition are quite incredible. The research below will first individually focus on demographic transition in Japan, the United States and Ghana. These three countries emulate the three different types of countries around the world considering population growth of a declining, stagnating with slow growth, and a rapidly increasing population. Then the paper will provide overarching themes and ideas to take away. The Demographic transition model is a model that explains population change over time. In 1929, American demographer Warren Thompson created this model after witnessing transitioning population structures in industrial societies with shifting birth and death rates. The model is separated into four different stages. Stage 1 is linked to practically all of human history up to the late 1700’s in Western Europe and the U.S., and the late 1800’s to early 1900’s for all other developing countries. (“Demographic”) Population growth fluctuated every generation and only increased slightly over thousands of years since the Agricultural Revolution, since both birth and death rates were high due to poor health and education standards. In stage 2, high birth rates remain constant but death rates begin to fall. This decline in death rates is due to better agricultural techniques in selective breeding and crop rotation, leading to better food supplies and lower starvation rates. Also public health becomes a bigger priority as sewage and food sanitation improves and the instance of disease greatly decreases. This instance of a high birth rate coupled with a lower death rate leads to a noticeable population increase and societal increase in resource consumption. Also in stage 2, infant mortality greatly decreases leading to a higher survivorship curve and life expectancy. Stage 3 is when birth rates begin to fall and death rates continue to plummet. At this point in the transition, families that rely on agriculture for their livelihood begin to realize they do not need to have as many children as they do siblings. This is because the probability their children will survive to adulthood is much higher. The society also increasingly urbanizes as industrialization increases and education access increases. Education, especially for women, serves as a catalyst for a lower birth rate as women who are in school and later work for longer periods of time have less time to raise children and have a greater say in their reproductive decision. (BBC) Cost is also a prohibitive factor for couples wanting to have large families as living in a suburban or urban area becomes increasingly expensive and the need to have children for traditional agricultural livelihood decreases. Ghana fits into this category. Stage 4 occurs when population growth stabilizes as birth rates fall to around replacement level along with similarly low death rates. Stage 4 societies are the most developed and typically have a strong nationwide infrastructure with an emphasis on jobs relating to the secondary and tertiary sector rather than primary activity jobs. Urbainziation is clearly evident and health care along with education is relatively highly invested upon. All these factors promote couples to have few children as they are not necessary for the family to survive, and are educated on the benefits of having a small family. The United States fit into this category. Originally this model contained four stages, however stage four of the model only accounts for a stagnating population not a declining one. In the past few decades, many models have begun to include a fifth stage. Many countries in stage four have begun to have death rates exceed birth rates causing population decline. This is known as stage five but only a few countries are known to have this problem such as Japan. (“Z Geography”)Japan is the perfect country to begin discussing about the impacts social change and technology has had on the country’s development. Until 1853, Japan remained a fairly isolated country with an economy focused on agriculture and fishing with a stage one population structure. In 1853, an American commander named Matthew Perry demanded the Japanese government open their ports to foreign traders to stimulate trade and maintain the safety of cargo ships across the Pacific Ocean. Seeing the technology of steam boats and brutal force of guns, the Tokugawa shogunate agreed to open Japan’s ports. In an uprising shortly after, the Meiji era was established. Emperor Meiji, noticing the power of the rifle from foreigners, during this era initiated trade and facilitated development of the infrastructure of Japan such as railroads. (“Part”) Better sanitation was also initiated and education access increased, leading Japan to become a stage two country based on the demographic transition. This illustrates how gun technology is a catalysis for population explosion in that the sheer recognition of subservience of an entity sparks a desire to overcome obstacles to change the fact. Continuing through history, the Japanese military exponentially increased in power and was able to take control of large portions of East Asia. As a result this shows greater resource acquisition further accelerates demographic transition. During World War 2, Japan was decimated by the U.S. with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being completely flattened by the atomic bomb. As a result Japan’s economy was destroyed by war and was temporarily plunged back into the first stage of the demographic transition. Due to Japan’s aggressive nature and Axis alignment during World War 2, America signed a treaty with Japan limiting Japan’s military size and power while also protecting Japan with American military bases. (“Chronology”) Continuing with its promise, America invested greatly into Japan’s infrastructure during the Korean War.Interesting enough this investment significantly bolstered Japan’s economy. As a result birth rate exploded at the same time death rates fell. This shows war can not only hinder demographic transition but also accelerate population structural changes. Japan was thrust back into a powerful stage two country and a large child population that began to consume a large number of newly industrialized goods in the 1950’s. With Japan largely freed from security and military funding with protection by the U.S. guaranteed, Japan invested greatly into its technology and industrial sectors. (“History”) As a result the average income of the Japanese worker greatly increased and health care access improved, which greatly reduced death rates. In the 1960’s and 1970’s, Japan posted unprecedented growth and was able to achieve stage three of the demographic transition. This proves how government investment in education and technology can progress demographic transition and a higher living standard for everyone. By the 1980’s, Japan became internationally recognized for quality electronics and through years of educational investment and innovation became a developed country with a rating of stage four in the demographic transition model. However this meteoric rise can crashing down in 1989, when the economy crashed leading to decades of economic stagnation caused by a growing elderly population. This caused women to increasingly work outside the home to maintain the quality of life for their families. Women working outside the home caused delaying further childbirth to work and maintain time to do so. Men and especially women also started going to college in greater numbers further delaying marriage and having children to years later than previously. (“SPICE”) This shows how college education is an important factor in having a country reach stage four of the demographic transition. However, Japan has become so advanced from a job perspective, and has a culture of putting work before pleasure, which pushes child rearing to the back burner. Japanese people also have known access to widespread amounts of arousal sources online and from anime. This interestingly convinces many adults they do not need a significant other to lead a fulfilling life. Such online resources are pushing the boundaries of the demographic transition model to include a fifth stage since the number of children being produced in societies such as Japan is lower than the death rate. The Japanese government sees this as a relative non-issue; however immigration or giving women adequate maternity leave and incentives is the only response to maintain population levels or risk population extinction and a crushing welfare state. Japan is a homogeneous society and is relatively xenophobic, which puts immigration off the table. (“Demography) Immigration primarily serves as a means to maintain a given demographic stage which will be shown in my other two examples. Japan faces a serious crisis and one can only hope the government gets serious about the problem before the dependency the ballooning elderly populations requires, busts Japan’s budget and debt ceiling. This shifts into the next country of focus which is the United States, which has a ballooning debt and emulates a typical stage four country of the demographic transition model. When the United States was first colonized in Jamestown, the United States was a first stage country with both a high birth rate and a high death rate from the rampant spread of disease, poor resource allocation, and Native American attacks. The United States began industrializing in the late 1800’s with the usage of railroads and coal burning factories which encouraged many people to move to the cities. (“The Flow”) Urbanization caused by people moving closer to centers of work encourages denser settlements. This in turn promotes the creation of smaller families as parents don’t rely on labor form their kids to make a living off the land anymore. Housing also becomes more cramped and as such families can no longer afford to house more than a few children. Urbanizing also leads to better access to health services and sanitation which lower death rates and leads to population growth. A population that sees urbanization as practical to their way of life encourages a society to move along the demographic transition model with collectively smaller family units each generation. The United States progressed into stage 3 in the early to mid-1900’s. By the 1920’s the feminist movement had become well recognized through its achievement of suffrage for women and the usage of flappers. Women began to dress more freely and less traditionally, which promoted women rights and equality outside the home. Feminism promotes gender equality which allows women a greater say in their reproductive role. This leads to families having fewer children. Women during this era also gained the ability to gain a greater education which allowed many to begin working outside the home as clerks or typists. During this time frame technological power began to grow exponentially especially in the field of health care technology. Life expectancy shot up more than 20 years from 1900 to 1950 in the United States from 47 to 68 years. (“Life”). By the mid 1950’s many vaccines also began arising from measles to mumps which greatly reduced infant mortality. Both of these factors contributed greatly to the continuous death rate decline in stage three. Birth rates declined during the great depression and world war two due to the poor economy and the fact many men were overseas. However when all these men returned home a baby boom ensued. From 1946-1964, 79 million babies were born with 4.3 million births in 1957 alone, a record not surpassed until 2007. Incredibly, the population of the United States was 60 percent of what it was in 2007. (“Baby”)This significant baby created a consumerist culture that fueled suburbanization and wide spread liberalization. By the 1960’s and 1970’s when many of these children of the baby boom came of age, liberalism was at the forefront of American politics. Many fought for racial equality, an end to traditional thinking, and recreational drug use. One of the most significant developments was the Food and Drug Administration approving the usage of the birth control pill in 1960. This pill allowed women to have fewer barriers to them working outside the home. In that time period, women could still be fired for getting pregnant whereas with the pill pregnancy could largely be prevented. This liberalization of women led to significantly lower birth rates and families. However as the baby boom generation grew up from young adulthood, they collectively had fewer children per household due to the modernizing economy leading to the United States becoming a member of the stage four section of the demographic transition. Birth rates have largely stagnated over the past few decades; however the U.S. population is buoyed by the immigration of millions of Hispanics from Mexico and South America. Hispanics are now the second largest demographic. (Martinez) Having such an influx of a young demographic maintains the stability of a population and allows inflation of the economy through increased consumption of resources. It also prevents a population from sliding into stage five of the demographic transition. Moving on to the final case study country, this project will now focus on how Ghana represents a typical stage three country. Ghana is located in West Sub-Saharan Africa and is currently transitioning into a society with a near replacement level birth rate. The economy is growing rapidly and millions are lifting themselves out of poverty. The current investment by the national government and international organizations in improving education and health care access is certainly helping to progress the demographic transition model. The average number of children a woman is having is now down to four children compared to six or more children average found in neighboring countries. (“New”) Ghana, despite significant economic growth, is still plagued by poverty especially in the northern region of the country. This is caused by continued degradation of the natural environment for the use of natural raw materials in the development of infrastructure. In this region placing development over natural resource protection, can bode two different ways for demographic transition. On one hand the use of the resources can build schools, infrastructure, and community facilities to stimulate economic growth and progress the transition. On the other hand it leads to greater income inequality and a stubbornly high birth rate as areas affected by resource acquisition can have disastrous consequences. The outside advisor in an interview told the researcher that she noticed a significant difference in the amount of disparity in wealth as compared to the United States, which is hindering Ghana’s progression into stage four of the demographic transition. Ghana continues to have significant portions of the population that live in poverty that live off of subsistence farming. These families continue to have large families in order to have a greater source of free labor to maintain a constant food supply for the family. Also, since these people farm for their lives they aren’t able to receive an education and break the cycle. However, child education programs by international organizations are according to her really trying to break the vicious circle of poverty and usher in a larger middle class. When the researcher initially took a survey asking what fellow academy students thought about demographic transition, the results weren’t surprising. Many knew what the concept is, but didn’t believe it was a major issue or something to be concerned about. In these last few points, the researcher will ultimately convince one to join in educating yourself on the important factors relating to demographic transition and consider what one wouldn’t have before considering population change over time. ConclusionAs one can see there are many perspectives to look at demographic transition from both different countries and stages along the transition. Let’s review what we have learned from this research. Many factors can both simultaneously slow and speed up demographic transition. War effectively halted Japan’s demographic progress but ultimately helped it pass three stages in just a few decades. World War Two leveled the country; however the Korean War stimulated infrastructure development that spurred an economic growth, coupled with a greater education budget that allowed Japan to flourish into a world leader in technology. Women working outside the home, a significant social, initiate a greater speed of demographic transition. Immigration on the other hand, often keeps a country in its respective demographic stage. As with the United States, Hispanic immigration has kept the United States at a stable growth rate while simultaneously increasing our cultural diversity. Continuing with the U.S.’s changing demographics, the baby boomers were a significant force in brining America into stage four of the demographic transition through their increased consumerism and resource consumption, liberalized reproductive views, and having fewer number of children. Furthermore, healthcare technology prolonging life expectancy lowers death rate and allows rapid transitioning across demographic stages. Also increasing access to those who are unable to obtain such health care has the same effect. Fixing income inequality also has shown to procedure a much lower birth and death rates, which are essential to stage four demographic transition. As one now sees demographic transition is a major issue that often flies right under the radar. The best thing to do to combat this problem is to educate oneself, learn this issue, and educate others on the issue. Demographic transition is a fascinating field to study and it will be interesting to see what the world holds in store for future population changes.BibliographyBBC News. BBC, n.d. Web. 13 Dec. 2013. "Baby Boom." Geography. N.p., n.d. Web. 14 Dec. 2013. "Chronology of U.S.-Japan Relations." Chronology of U.S.-Japan Relations. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Dec. 2013."Demographic Transition." Demographic Transition. N.p., n.d. Web. 11 Dec. 2013. "Demography at brockport - Japan." Demographyatbrockport - Japan. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Dec. 2013."History of Japan." History of Japan. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 Dec. 2013."Part 1: Introduction." Japanese History. N.p., n.d. "FDA Approves the Pill." . A&E Television Networks, n.d. Web. 13 Dec. 2013."Life Expectancy in the USA, 1900-98." Life Expectancy in the USA, 1900-98. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Dec. 2013.Martinez, Michael, and Mariano Castillo. "Hispanic Population Exceeds 50 Million, Firmly Nation's No. 2 Group." CNN. Cable News Network, 24 Mar. 2011. Web. 15 Dec. 2013."New Security Beat." New Security Beat Why Has the Demographic Transition Stalled in SubSaharan Africa Comments. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Dec. 2013."SPICE." Japanese Education -. N.p., n.d. Web. 11 Dec. 2013.Web. 11 Dec. 2013. "The Flow of History." FC116: The Spread of Industrialization Beyond Britain (c.1850-1900) -. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Dec. 2013."Z Geography." Z Geography. 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