Global warming and the u.s. presidential election

[Pages:51]global warming and the u.s. presidential election, Spring 2016

Global Warming and the U.S. Presidential Election, Spring 2016

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Table of Contents

Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 2 Key Findings..............................................................................................................................4 1. Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes .................................................................................7 2. Global Warming as an Issue in the November 2016 Elections ........................................... 12 3. Support for Action on Global Warming............................................................................... 18 Appendix I: Data Tables ......................................................................................................... 23 Appendix II: Survey Method ................................................................................................... 45 Appendix III: Sample Demographics ..................................................................................... 46

Global Warming and the U.S. Presidential Election, Spring 2016

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Introduction

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey ? Climate Change in the American Mind ? conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication () and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication (). Interview dates: March 18?31, 2016. Interviews: 1,004 Adults (18+) who are registered to vote. Average margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The research was funded by the 11th Hour Project, the Energy Foundation, the Grantham Foundation, and the MacArthur Foundation.

Principal Investigators:

Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD Yale Program on Climate Change Communication anthony.leiserowitz@yale.edu

Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication emaibach@gmu.edu

Connie Roser-Renouf, PhD George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication croserre@gmu.edu

Geoff Feinberg Yale Program on Climate Change Communication geoffrey.feinberg@yale.edu

Seth Rosenthal, PhD Yale Program on Climate Change Communication seth.rosenthal@yale.edu

Cite as: Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Feinberg, G., & Rosenthal, S. (2016). Global Warming and the U.S. Presidential Election, Spring 2016. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

Global Warming and the U.S. Presidential Election, Spring 2016

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Reading notes:

? This report was prepared prior to Ted Cruz's (R) suspension of his presidential campaign. Mr. Cruz's supporters are the most likely to think climate change is not happening.

? This report is based only on registered voters.

? References to Republicans and Democrats throughout include registered voters who do not initially identify as Republicans or Democrats but who say they "lean" toward one party or the other in a follow-up question. The category "Independents" does not include any of these "leaners."

? Throughout the report, candidates are listed in alphabetical order within party.

? In all tables and charts, bases specified are unweighted, but percentages are weighted.

? Weighted percentages for political party identification:

? Democrats including leaners: 47% ? Independents excluding leaners: 10% ? Republicans including leaners: 38%

? Weighted percentages in response to the following question: "If the November, 2016 presidential election were held today, which candidate, if any, would be your first choice?" [The five remaining major party candidates as of March 18, 2016 were listed in random order]:

? Hillary Clinton: 22% ? Bernie Sanders: 16% ? Ted Cruz: 9% ? John Kasich: 8% ? Donald Trump: 15% ? Someone else: 2% ? Haven't decided/Not sure: 25% ? Probably won't vote: 3%

? In the appendix tables, note that: -- = 0; * = >0 but ................
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