History Sets You Free



Volume 26, Number 3, February 2017US politicsWhat can we expect from President Trump? Jeremy Taylor The election of Donald Trump as US president has sent political reverberations around the world. Many other articles explore the reasons for a victory that some found surprising. This article, though, focuses on his background, beliefs, policies and ideologies and what he might actually do while in power.BackgroundTrump’s background is not in politics but in business, and he is frequently described as a property ‘tycoon’, owning hotels, casinos and golf courses in the USA and around the world. Indeed, this is all part of the Trump package. He often refers to his success as a businessman as proof that he can turn around a US economy that many see as stagnating. It is worth noting though that Trump’s father was a real estate developer — Donald inherited his father’s company. His father gave him what Trump often calls ‘a small loan’ in the 1970s. This was at least $1m plus additional ‘loans and gifts’, hardly the ‘American Dream’ of the self-made man.Trump is something of a celebrity businessman and he appeared in the American version of The Apprentice. This undoubtedly helped him to gain name recognition — something that is vital in US politics, where some politicians are not recognised outside their home state. Before Trump first entered politics he was already a well-known figure.There were rumours in 1988, 2004 and 2012 that Trump would run for president, although each time he chose not to. In the build-up to the election of 2011–12, Trump began his campaign of accusing Barack Obama of not having been born in the USA and demanding that he produce his birth certificate, giving rise to the ‘birther movement’. Trump is of course a prolific user of social media, with over 12 million Twitter followers and 16 million Facebook ‘likes’. The use of social media has been key to Trump spreading his message.BeliefsA-level politics students will be used to categorising Republican politicians in different ways. The most basic divide is moderate and conservative. Within the conservatives, one might divide them into ‘social conservatives’ and ‘fiscal conservatives’. A more sophisticated analysis might also include ‘compassionate conservatives’, ‘neo-conservatives’, the Tea Party movement and libertarians.Categorising Trump in this way is incredibly difficult. His support for tax cuts suggests he is a fiscal conservative, yet his support for investment in infrastructure makes him appear almost Keynesian. His support for business and low taxes suggests he embraces the free market, and yet his opposition to free trade puts him at odds with most free-market thinking over recent decades.On ISIS and on Iran his aggressive comments suggest he fits the neo-conservative mould. However, he has been keen to distance himself from the Iraq War, he is positive about Vladimir Putin and his comments suggest he is less willing for the US to engage in overseas military adventures. Trump has said he will ‘end the current strategy of nation-building and regime change’. This would suggest he is the exact opposite of a neo-conservative.His comments on abortion suggest he is a social conservative, and yet is he not especially religious (unlike most social conservatives) and in the past he supported abortion rights, saying in 1999, when asked about abortion: ‘I believe in choice’.Trump, therefore, is probably best described as being an economic nationalist. His supporters would argue that his policies are all about ‘putting America first’.PoliciesHere are a selection of his policies:building a wall along the Mexican border (and making Mexico pay)stopping Muslim immigrationrenegotiating America’s trade dealsintroducing tariffs of 35% on US companies that move jobs abroadrenegotiating the US–Iran nuclear dealrepealing Obamacareinvesting hundreds of billions of dollars in America’s infrastructure (roads, bridges, tunnels, etc.)investing in fossil fuels such as coal and oilreducing the budget deficit and the US National Debtcutting taxes — for example income tax and corporation taxincreasing the size of the US military and increasing defence spendingdefending Second Amendment ‘gun rights’What can we expect?There are two bases from which we can speculate about what Trump may do: his post-election policy statements and his nominations to senior positions in his administration.Post-election policy statementsSince Trump was elected on 8 November, there have been a number of policy U-turns or amendments. It appears that the nuclear deal with Iran will stay. Obamacare may well be repealed, but Trump has indicated that certain elements might remain. The wall with Mexico — possibly his best-known policy — will now simply be a fence with beefed-up border control. Hillary Clinton is unlikely ever to be prosecuted. It will be interesting to see whether other policies will be dropped in the coming months.Key nominationsThere has been significant speculation about Trump’s nominations to the executive branch. Trump is already filling his cabinet positions, although it is worth remembering that in the US system of checks and balances these are all subject to confirmation votes in the Senate. These nominations are thus not guaranteed to become actual appointments. That said, with a GOP majority in the Senate, it would be surprising if Trump did not get the majority of his appointments.Trump has already nominated retired generals for three of the top positions: Marine General John Kelly will be the Homeland Security Secretary; General James ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis has been nominated for Secretary of Defense; and Lieutenant General Michael Flynn has been nominated as National Security Advisor. This level of military involvement in civilian affairs is unprecedented in modern American history. No doubt these generals will support the proposed increases to the military, but how will they feel about Trump’s desire to avoid military intervention abroad?Other nominationsHealth Secretary: Tom PriceAccording to former Democrat Senate leader Harry Reid, Tom Price ‘has avowed to privatise Medicare and wants to do away with Planned Parenthood’. This kind of nomination gives us a sense of the kind of approach Trump may adopt in regard to abortion, welfare and public services. However, privatising Medicare (the government-run healthcare programme for America’s pensioners) would be deeply unpopular. Attorney General: Jeff SessionsAlabama Senator Jeff Sessions is highly conservative. He is opposed to immigration reform, same-sex marriage and Obamacare. He has also been accused of making racist remarks in the past. When nominated for a position as federal judge in 1986, he was rejected by the Senate Judiciary Committee, even though it had a Republican majority, because of concern about racial comments that he had made.Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Ben CarsonCarson was one of the most right-wing candidates in the GOP invisible primary in 2015–16. Trump’s appointmentsOther appointments do not require Senate confirmation and provide contradictory evidence of the direction Trump may take. Reince Priebus will become White House Chief of Staff (the President’s key personal adviser) — an interesting appointment considering Trump’s attacks on ‘Washington insiders’. As former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), Priebus is the ultimate insider in the Washington establishment. Some are concerned by the appointment of former Breitbart News executive chair Steve Bannon as Trump’s ‘strategist’. Bannon comes from the fringes of right-wing politics, the so-called ‘alt-right’. Some have accused Breitbart News of being ‘misogynist, racist and xenophobic.’ConclusionTrump’s ideology, policies, nominations and appointments seem to indicate a radically right-wing direction. However, with the US system of separation of powers and checks and balances, presidents are far from guaranteed to achieve their agenda, especially in domestic affairs.The Democrats will have to be careful to not oppose everything Trump does lest they be seen as barriers to change. However, they will oppose Trump strongly in Congress on other issues. The GOP only has a small majority in the Senate, so Democrats could use the filibuster to block some of Trump’s more controversial policies. It is going to be an interesting few months.Further readingThe Donald Trump campaign website is an excellent resource for finding Trump’s policy statements: US news:Washington Post: New York Times: CNN: Extra researchCome up with a list of Trump’s appointments to his cabinet and other key positions (e.g. CIA Director). Keep checking the news regularly and add to the list as nominations are announced.Categorise Trump’s policies into four groups: socially conservative; fiscally conservative; neo-conservative; other.Draw a spectrum line across a piece of paper. At one end of the spectrum write ‘likely’ and at the other end ‘unlikely’. Add on to the line each one of Trump’s major policy proposals from this article.Jeremy Taylor is Head of History and Politics at Bishop Thomas Grant School099060This resource is part of Politics Review, a magazine?written for A–level students?by subject?experts. To subscribe to the full magazine go to: resource is part of Politics Review, a magazine?written for A–level students?by subject?experts. To subscribe to the full magazine go to: ................
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