SEMINAR IN GLOBAL ISSUES - Syracuse University



SEMINAR IN GLOBAL ISSUES

SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY—January-May 2019

Dr. Jim Keagle

keaglej@ndu.edu

202-685-3700 (wp); 703-764-0726 (hp)

Now 2 years into the Trump presidency, we are living through one of the most divisive periods in American political history as we seek to understand the process of policymaking!!! It will be an interesting time with the agenda evolving almost daily at least partially through the medium of tweets. As of the writing on the 4th of January it is still unclear exactly when and how the partial government shutdown will end. Moreover, we still do not know if any compromise can be reached on the “wall’ and broader immigration reform. Many members of the House are aggressively talking investigations of the Trump Administration and Trump himself, up to and including impeachment. What we do know is that strong pulls to the right and left continue the polarization of American politics.

Russia and China are the big two foreign policy/national security priorities at the moment. Great Power competition is officially the name of the game with all its implications—followed by the DPRK, Iran, and Countering Violent Extremism. This does not include the immigration issues (securing the border, building some kind of wall/fence (is it more than a metaphor?) and immigration reform/DACA). Nor does it mention a domestic agenda of health care, the impact of the tax and regulatory reform (and a possible second round of tax cuts), energy policy, and continued regulatory relief that could be equally fast-paced and transformational. We must ask, what does the new National Security Strategy really change?

SYRIA—is peace possible? Is the Trump announced withdrawal still on track? Working with Russia? With Turkey? Fate of Assad?

RUSSIA—is cooperation possible post Helsinki? In Syria? Against China? In Europe? With the INF?

ISIS—the buzz in January continues to be Trump’s withdrawal of forces and geographic re-location of ISIS from Syria/Iraq to Africa. Yet troops will remain in Iraq?

CHINA—more confrontations and conflict seem to be the direction for Trump. Reclamation projects and the PRC checkbook (AIIB) seem prominent—as well as what role the PRC may have re the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Yet there is always in the background a hope for some end to the trade war.

IRAN--Syria and Iraq (IS, ISIS, ISIL), RUSSIA and its hybrid war post-Ukraine and our efforts to DETER—maybe avoiding another former empire seeking to expand its influence. The Shia Crescent? Iran against Saudi Arabia and the GCC and Egypt? And in Yemen? The street demonstrations against the regime—how big a deal?

Is Kim really serious about denuclearization?

Afghanistan—is another drawdown underway?

Congress will return to prepare for the looming budget debates--with a debt ceiling to address and a budget to pass—and the 2020 Presidential race already underway!!!!!!

COURSE DESCRIPTION: The process and substance of international relations (IR) and international and national security are explored via an examination of global and domestic issues through the eyes of the U.S. national security community. Thus, while the focus begins with the nation-state (and the US as sole surviving superpower)) as the principal actor in the international arena, we will pay attention to any changes to the system that are threatening the pre-eminence of the nation state—the war on terrorism and its cost, populism and the challenges to sovereignty being pre-eminent among them. Cost is understood as multi-dimensional—blood, treasure and values among its key considerations. Different paradigms emphasize other players—non-state actors—and themes such as the clash of civilizations/cultures, How Iraq/Syria, the Ukraine, and Iran are affecting Europe and the Euro-Zone will also be center-stage in our discussions. The globalism/nationalism debate will be relevant. Course is integrative in that all the tools and instruments of policy are considered--military, economic, political, diplomatic, technological, etc. Course is inclusive—most major issues are addressed, regardless of whether or not they fit with the traditional EAST-WEST and North Atlantic/Euro-centric focus of conventional IR theories. In fact, the emphasis is on the expanding definition of “national security” and the threats that these new (and traditional) security issues pose to the nation state—like homeland security and combating ideological support for the terrorists. . The course is less theoretical and more policy and politics heavy. While a grounding in IR theory—e.g., Russett and Starr, Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff—is helpful, a domestic orientation and interest set will also provide the basis for successful accomplishment of course requirements.. Therefore, most of our effort will be examining systematically the global issues of the post-9/11 era and using the U.S. policymaking machinery to do so. This is a U.S. centric and Executive branch centric course. How states (think sanctuary states and cities) engage with the Federal govt. merits attention. Plus we will return with a Supreme Court justice nomination and approval process underway in the aftermath of its summer session rulings. Then there is the role of the Congress considering changes to how we tax and spend and in addressing the debt/deficit issues. The war on terrorism/Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan will be addressed specifically. U.S. “management of its empire” will also be central to our studies. In this sense the course will seem to fit the mold of other IR courses. You may also if your interests take you there, write 2 of your papers on domestic issues. But above all else the following themes will influence our readings, research, and discussions:

1. President Trump wants to continue to reverse the deal (JCPOA) with Iran as ineffectual in preventing nuclear proliferation in the MENA... In Afghanistan, the commitment to some residual force of about 7,000 overrules the military chiefs in the Pentagon—and with a new Acting SECDEF in place and a new CJCS in waiting. Trump faces renewed Taliban battlefield successes. The new AUMF--the specific authorizations for the use of military force in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 re Syria and Iraq—may be on the table again... Interesting backstory here. For Trump, the war against ISIS has been “won.” What about the future of Syria (and drones flying out of Turkey and the key Incirlik air base?)? Pakistan? Somalia? Yemen? Libya? Mali? Niger? How will an Acting SECDEF prioritize his $700B defense budget? The new team must balance growing demands to balance the defense strategy with COIN initiatives to protect indigenous populations, necessary capabilities to fight a major war, and the increasingly prevalent use of UAV systems and a CT strategy (not a Trump priority) Cost will increasingly factor into these discussions as the war bill (OCO account) still approaches $70B /year. Look for modernization and big ticket force structure (and readiness) to hold the upper hand in defense expenditures against R&D—unless the Russian hypervelocity breakthroughs (?) capture trump’s attention.

2. The 2019 spring calendar will be filled with budget politics and the interaction among the President, Congress and the American people—not just with Trump’s leadership and political standing but also with the great power competition, the tax code, and immigration! It begins with return of Congress in January—and then the State of the Union address.

3. Energy Security/Independence and oil prices—where does the price settle? Near $45 right now (January 2019). Hydro-fracturing and LNG—are these real energy game changers? What does this mean for the traditional oil producers? Russia? Saudi Arabia? OPEC generally? The US? How far away from a serious conversion to green technology and autonomous robotic cars are we? People are buying SUVs again—and not electric cars. Energy independence for America?

4. The pivot to the Asia-Pacific and China—peer competitor????— reclamation/creation projects in the South China Sea and the ADIZ controversy in the East China Sea); how about building of a 2nd aircraft carrier? The second island chain strategy? Japan? Ballistic Missile Defense for the ROK? Anti-Access/Area Denial in general? The DPRK in a post-Singapore world? Kim rules until…? Xi rules until…?

5. The Mid-east peace process and the future of the Arab Spring movements—now almost 9 years old; what do we do re ISIS? What about Syria? How long can Assad last? The post Assad Syria and the nature of the opposition (Al Qaeda links?). What happens after “verification of the destruction of chemical weapons?” Can we make that deal with Russia?

6. The continuing Russia-Georgia and Russia-Ukraine sagas—what do they illuminate re ethnic nationalism, NATO expansion, Russian resurgence/imperial ambitions/xenophobia (what does the ratification of START mean to all of this?)? Is it all about energy? Where are we with the reset? The future of Article V in NATO? For Poland? Latvia? Moldova, Transniestria, Romania? Sweden? Finland? The Warsaw summit focused on deterrence and moving military capability forward. Are we in or headed towards a new Cold War and true Great Power competition?

7. Whither the Euro-Zone and the EU in the face of electoral reactions to austerity programs, immigration, and BREXIT? Greece? Spain? Even Germany and its interdependence with Russia? Is Merkel’s original open arms welcoming approach to immigration and refugees dead? She did survive the most immediate threat in July to her coalition. France and Macron’s emerging leadership and rapport with Trump?

8. The U.S. budget in a period of austerity—spending for entitlements, defense, debt and deficit; the Medicaid//Obama Care nexus has stirred the reaction among the states—as we age—what happened to retiring in one’s 60s? Medicare and Medicaid untouchables for Trump? Bu not hard right Republicans?

9. Immigration—both legal and illegal—anchor babies, the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 14th Amendments, walls, and Trump’s campaign rhetoric? Sanctuary cities—and states???

10. Drug War—and Obrador’s new approach at the border—can Mexico sustain its commitment to holding areas within Mexico for those awaiting asylum processing into the US?

11. BRICS—are they done rising?

12. Whither Venezuela!!!!! And Russia and China seem all in to Venezuela—and Argentina, both suffering from serious debt issues.

13. This semester really will explode as soon as the Congress opens on the 3rd of January. We face yet another looming session of Congress dominated by divisive politics—and the adjustments or continued resistance to a Trump presidency—fairness, immigration, health care, energy, policing, war—and the debate about how gloomy or rosy the current state of affairs is. Politics will be an important element that we must consider on each issue. The 2020 elections will color almost everything Washington does.

PREREQUISITES: The student should know the basic features of the international system as it has operated historically and be familiar with the traditional concepts of EAST-WEST and NORTH-SOUTH as they structure thinking about IR and relevant global and regional issues. Students should have completed basic undergraduate courses in IR theory/American foreign policymaking.

COURSE OBJECTVES: Upon course completion, the student should have a reinforced understanding of:

the actors and their involvement in IR; the tools of IR interaction; the relationship between politics and economics in IR; the major theoretical approaches to the study of IR; and the global (and regional) issues in IR in the 1990s; and

2. how to apply generally IR theory to any global issue.

• Most importantly, the student should better understand the process of national security policymaking in the U.S. as well as the manner in which the actors in the U.S. government establishment understand and decide issues. It will be a course about how Washington works. The single best article remains The Atlantic, “How American Politics Went Insane,” by Jonathan Rauch (July/August edition).

•

In this sense, this course will likely be different from any other course you have ever taken.

• Finally, the student should have a sense for the way in which the current menu of issues facing the international community offers threats as well as opportunities not only for the system as a whole and us as inhabitants of this planet, but also for the nation state, which has been the dominant form of organization for the past 500 years.

REQUIRED TEXTS: Time, Newsweek, The Economist, The Washington Post , Wall Street Journal, New York Times, etc

Students should have available current periodicals and newspapers and will be expected to watch relevant current affairs TV broadcasts ((I expect everyone to read the Washington Post ((its A and Outlook sections) Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, and the weekly national periodicals.)). The New York Times and Wall Street Journal are also part of the daily chatter in DC. You must watch the Saturday evening/Sunday morning talk shows/news broadcasts. Good background books are: Ian Bremmer’s, Superpower. I recommend a quick read of Thomas Friedman’s , The World is Flat, and Natan Sharansky’s, The Case for Democracy. I will flood you with electronic readings weekly that you can peruse. Sageman has a new text on leaderless terrorist networks. See critiques of the Bush administration such as Cobra II and Fiasco. See Doug Feith’s War and Decision; See Ron Suskind’s The Price of Loyalty, The One Percent Doctrine, and his most recent The Way of the World. These catch you up on the Bush legacy that Obama inherited. Two more recent books about how DC works are: Gutmann and Thompson, The Spirit of Compromise: Why Governing Demands It and Campaigning Undermines It; Mann and Ornstein, It’s Even Worse Than it Looks. And then there is the panoply of works about the Trump presidency—both its content and its style.

METHODOLOGY:

This class is a seminar. No more that one-half of any meeting I will devote to a formal lecture, and student involvement is encouraged during any lecture (discussion based rather than lecture based learning environment). Significant burdens lie on each of us to be prepared fully prior to class. This means, of course, that assignments should be accomplished before class. Moreover, we all must devote time prior to class to thinking through the issues raised in the readings. You should allocate at least one-half of your preparation time to these thoughtful deliberations. Learn to read quickly and carefully—and make strategic decisions about what to read—and how to share your insights with others—in class and at the workplace.

I will assume the burden of making the seminars enjoyable learning experiences--a place and time we all look forward to. I will mix a variety of techniques throughout the course so that we are more able to keep our focus on learning. Learning can be fun, and making it so is one of my primary objectives.

Academic Integrity:

The Syracuse policy applies for all course work.

Specifically, and work submitted must properly give credit to those whose ideas you are incorporating into your work. Even if formal footnotes and bibliographies are not required, you must properly acknowledge the ideas of others as they contribute to your argument. I will discuss this in more detail in class.

EVALUATION:

Grading is important to you and me and is a responsibility I take very seriously. I am flexible in my approach as to how you may earn your grade and will detail this more thoroughly in class. What follows is my general expectation for your level of work. Class attendance is expected.

Four written issues paper(s) (see below) 75%

#1 Class 4 15%

#2 Class 7 15%

#3 Class 10 20 %

#4 Class 13 25%

Class discussions/presentations 25%

(This means you must be an ACTIVE participant and not just a passive listener.

I will explain this in class). It is highly improbable that even with A’s on all papers you can earn above an A- for the course if you are not an active seminar contributor.

Final Exam/Extra paper (optional—can raise your evaluation up to one-half letter grade; particularly recommended for those who are less involved in class discussions; even that extra paper will not carry the day for you if you are uninvolved in seminar discussions; in other words you still even with the 5th paper cannot earn an “A” without involvement in our class discussions.)

To aid in your involvement in seminar discussions beginning with lesson three each of you will identify an article worth discussing and share it with all of us prior to class. Included in that sharing will be a 50-75 word summary and analysis of the article. You will be REQUIRED to discuss it in class as well.

I will explain this in class on our first meeting. This will count for 15% of your class participation grade. Note that the other 10% of class participation requires your additional involvement in our discussions.

Each issue paper is to be three (no more than four) pages in length (750-1000 words) and will contain the following sections—background, issue, options, recommendations, and traps (sample format will be provided; beginning with paper #3 talking points are also required). An additional one-half page of talking points are required for papers three and four. You will write this as if you were crafting a position for your “principal,” who sits at the table of the senior-level, NSC-chaired meeting. You will be recommending a course of action, or option, for the president—President Trump. It must be in the ballpark of what he is willing to consider. How you define the issue is the starting point of the paper and crucial to what follows (not everyone will frame the issue the same). You must accomplish four of these issue papers. I will permit a fifth as a replacement (that means I consider your four highest). One is required not later than 4 p.m. on the day of our fourth, seventh, tenth, and thirteenth meetings. You must finish paper #1 before moving on to paper #2. You must finish paper #2 before moving on to paper #3, etc. One-half letter grade deductions from each paper evaluation will occur for failure to be timely with your paper submissions (and will be additive—one-half letter grade subtraction when it is late (at 4:00 p.m. on the respective due date) and an additional one-half letter grade each subsequent day late). You may one paper before Lesson 4 for “free” feedback.—and I will comment as my time permits. Your final papers are still due at 4 p.m. on the 4th, 7th, 10th, and 13th meeting days of our class. Papers may be submitted electronically (Microsoft Word document) or paper. I normally return the electronic submissions with one working day. Paper submissions will be returned to you the next scheduled class unless you and I arrange differently. All work must be submitted not later than 12 noon following our last scheduled class meeting.

Each student is required to schedule and complete a face-to-face mid-term progress review with me between the 7th and 9th lessons. Expect this to take between 15-30 minutes.  This is a student requirement to initiate and schedule with me.

Notional Schedule of Topics is included in integrated document for all three classes.

Notionally

1. Intro—post rap on NSC meeting and the broad agenda—US values Human rights and the case study of Syria







2. Human rights and the case study of Syria



3. ISIS and the Middle East

4. Russia 9and its involvement in Syria, NATO, EU, and populism and the INF treaty

5. Japan, DPRK, and Russia

6. The domestic Agenda and the Congress—and role of social media CVE, jobs, jobs, jobs—this may be the most interesting class of all as we explore the President’s approach to control the narrative through tweets (early in the morning) and squeeze out the mainstream media (the demise of the WH press conference)—and maybe immigration reform is still on the table with the wall



7. China—Belt and Road Initiative—East Asia and South China Sea

8. Indian sub-continent and Afghanistan



9. Regulations, budget processes impact of tax reform—and social media

10. Africa—AQIP, AQIM, Boko Haram, South Sudan

11. Energy—hydrofracting, the arctic, energy independence

12. Immigration, border security, and the wall—and the social divide

13 Latin America—to include Venezuela

14. TBD

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