Arlington, VA info@expeditionstrategies - Politico
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Interested Parties Pete Brodnitz, Expedition Strategies Recent polling in Virginia's 10th Congressional District September 24, 2016
The results of our recent poll of likely general election voters in Virginia's 10th Congressional District shows that LuAnn Bennett is a strong general election candidate and is making considerable progress towards defeating Barbara Comstock.
LuAnn Bennett Has Begun to Introduce Herself to Voters and Raise Her Name ID While Comstock's Unfavorable Ratings Have Risen
LuAnn Bennett is successfully introducing herself to voters during this campaign. Since May, she has raised her name ID by twenty-five points (12% in May, 37% in September). Her favorability has also more than tripled moving from 7% in May to 24% in September. In contrast with Bennett's positive progress, Comstock has seen her unfavorable rating rise ten points from 25% to 35% while her favorable rating has only risen five points from 40% to 45%.
Name ID Very Fav Fav/Unfav Net Fav
LuAnn Bennett
May Sept.
`16
`16
12 37 +25
2 10 +8
7/5 24/13 +17/+8
+2 +11 +9
Barbara Comstock
May Sept.
`16
`16
65 80 +15
13 17 +4
40/25 45/35 +5/-10
+15 +10 -5
Bennett Has Closed The Gap On The Ballot, Now Narrowly Trails Comstock
Bennett's ability to introduce herself to voters is paying dividends. While she trailed by eleven points when we polled in May, today Bennett trails by only four points (41% say they will vote for Bennett, 45% say they will vote for Comstock, 1% say they will vote for another candidate and 12% are undecided). When undecided voters are pushed to see which way they lean, Comstock's lead shrinks further to two points (45% say they will vote for Bennett, 47% say they will vote for Comstock, 1% say they will vote for another candidate and 7% are undecided).
If the November 2016 election for Congress were held today, would you vote for ...?
May 2016
September 2016
Difference
-11
-4
+7
Democrat LuAnn Bennett
36
41
+5
Republican Barbara Comstock
47
45
-2
Another candidate
2
1
-1
Don't know
15
12
-3
Difference Bennett w/ leaners Comstock w/ leaners Another w/ leaners Don't know w/ leaners
-10
-2
+8
40
45
+5
50
47
-3
3
1
-2
7
7
0
Arlington, VA info@
A Majority of Voters Are Favorable Towards President Obama and Half Approve of the Job He Is Doing
President Obama is popular (60% say they are favorable towards him, 39% say they are unfavorable) and half (50%) say he is doing an excellent/good job as President, while 50% say he is doing a fair/poor job.
Positive Negative
Obama Favorability
60% favorable 39% unfavorable
Obama Job Approval
50% excellent/good 50% fair/poor
Two-Thirds Are Unfavorable Towards Trump While Voters Are Split On Clinton and Kaine Is Popular
Roughly two-thirds of voters in the district (64%) are unfavorable towards Donald Trump while only 35% are favorable towards him. Voters are almost evenly split on Hillary Clinton (48% favorable, 51% unfavorable) and Tim Kaine is popular (56% favorable, 34% unfavorable).
Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable,
somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of...?
Donald
Hillary
Tim
Trump
Clinton
Kaine
Name ID
99
99
90
Very Fav
15
23
31
Fav/Unfav
35/64
48/51
56/34
Net Fav
-29
-3
+22
And Clinton Has a Large Lead On Trump in The District
The district heavily favors Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the Presidential race ? Clinton leads Trump by 14% (49% say they will vote for Clinton, 35% say they will vote for Trump, 8% say they will vote for Johnson, 1% say they will vote for Stein, 1% say they will vote for McMullin, 1% say they will vote for another candidate, and 5% are undecided).
If the November 2016 election for President were held today, would you vote for?
All
Difference
+14
Democrat Hillary Clinton
49
Republican Donald Trump
35
Libertarian Gary Johnson
8
Green Party candidate Jill Stein
1
Independent party candidate Evan McMullin
1
Another candidate (vol.)
1
Don't know
5
VA-10 Polling Results 2
But Voters ? Regardless of Party ? Think Comstock Will Go Along With Trump's Agenda
Making the situation in the Presidential race difficult for Comstock is the fact that regardless of party, voters believe she will go along with Trump's agenda and support his policies. 57% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans say that Barbara Comstock will go along with Trump's agenda and support his policies not that Barbara Comstock will stand up to Trump and block parts of his agenda.
If Donald Trump is elected President in November, which is closer to
your view?
Party ID
All
Q17
Dem Ind Rep
Difference
+31 +35 +20 +38
Barbara Comstock will go along with Trump's agenda and support his policies.
54 57
47
59
Barbara Comstock will stand up to Trump and block parts of his agenda.
23
22
27
21
Don't know
23 21 27 20
Expedition Strategies conducted 400 total interviews in Virginia's 10th Congressional District September 19-21, 2016. The margin of error for overall results is ?4.90%. Expedition Strategies' clients include Senator Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Mazie Hirono (HI), Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and Congressman Tim Walz (MN).
VA-10 Polling Results 3
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