The Macroeconomic Consequences of the 2020 Presidential ...

[Pages:45]The Macroeconomic Consequences of the 2020 Presidential Candidates' Economic Policies

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Bernard Yaros, Economist

September 24, 2020

Moody's Analytics operates independently of the credit ratings activities of Moody's Investors Service. We do not comment on credit ratings or potential rating changes, and no opinion or analysis you hear during this presentation can be assumed to reflect those of the ratings agency.

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Agenda

1. And the Winner Is... 2. This Election Matters (A lot) 3. Vice President Biden's Economic Policies 4. President Trump's Economic Policies 5. Macroeconomic Consequences

September 2020

3

1

And the Winner Is...

Battleground State Polling Favors VP Biden

President Trump's support in head-to-head polls less VP Biden's, ppt

3

GA

OH

0 IA NC

-3

FL

-6

-9

270 to win NV

PA AZ NH WI MI MN

-12

-15 164

163 safe GOP electoral votes

185

206

227

ME 213 safe Dem electoral votes

248

269

290

311

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Moody's Analytics

September 2020

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Election Models Predict VP Biden Wins a Nailbiter

How states will vote in 2020 if non-incumbent turnout is avg

Source: Moody's Analytics

Democrat Republican

Electoral count: Democrats: 279 Republicans: 259

Note: Results reflect Sep 2020 forecast

September 2020

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History Doesn't Favor Republican Takeover of House

All postwar presidential election years

1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980

Net House gain/loss (+/-) for incumbent president's party

75 -22 -2 22 37 -5 12 -1 -34

Did House Majority Flip?

Yes Yes No No No No No No No

Incumbent President's Party

Democrat

1984

Net House gain/loss (+/-) for incumbent president's party

14

Democrat

1988

-2

Republican

1992

10

Republican

1996

3

Democrat

2000

1

Democrat

2004

3

Republican

2008

-21

Republican

2012

8

Democrat

2016

6

Historical avg

5.8

Did House Majority Flip?

No No No No No No No No No

Incumbent President's Party

Republican Republican Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Republican Democrat Democrat

Sources: U.S. House of Representatives, Moody's Analytics

September 2020

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Generic Ballot Points to Democrats Retaining House

% of voters who will support given party in congressional elections

50

Democrats

Republicans

48

46

44

42

40

38 4/1/19

6/20/19

9/8/19

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Moody's Analytics

11/27/19

2/15/20

5/5/20

7/24/20

September 2020

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