The Macroeconomic Consequences of the 2020 Presidential ...
[Pages:45]The Macroeconomic Consequences of the 2020 Presidential Candidates' Economic Policies
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Bernard Yaros, Economist
September 24, 2020
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2
Agenda
1. And the Winner Is... 2. This Election Matters (A lot) 3. Vice President Biden's Economic Policies 4. President Trump's Economic Policies 5. Macroeconomic Consequences
September 2020
3
1
And the Winner Is...
Battleground State Polling Favors VP Biden
President Trump's support in head-to-head polls less VP Biden's, ppt
3
GA
OH
0 IA NC
-3
FL
-6
-9
270 to win NV
PA AZ NH WI MI MN
-12
-15 164
163 safe GOP electoral votes
185
206
227
ME 213 safe Dem electoral votes
248
269
290
311
Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Moody's Analytics
September 2020
5
Election Models Predict VP Biden Wins a Nailbiter
How states will vote in 2020 if non-incumbent turnout is avg
Source: Moody's Analytics
Democrat Republican
Electoral count: Democrats: 279 Republicans: 259
Note: Results reflect Sep 2020 forecast
September 2020
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History Doesn't Favor Republican Takeover of House
All postwar presidential election years
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980
Net House gain/loss (+/-) for incumbent president's party
75 -22 -2 22 37 -5 12 -1 -34
Did House Majority Flip?
Yes Yes No No No No No No No
Incumbent President's Party
Democrat
1984
Net House gain/loss (+/-) for incumbent president's party
14
Democrat
1988
-2
Republican
1992
10
Republican
1996
3
Democrat
2000
1
Democrat
2004
3
Republican
2008
-21
Republican
2012
8
Democrat
2016
6
Historical avg
5.8
Did House Majority Flip?
No No No No No No No No No
Incumbent President's Party
Republican Republican Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Republican Democrat Democrat
Sources: U.S. House of Representatives, Moody's Analytics
September 2020
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Generic Ballot Points to Democrats Retaining House
% of voters who will support given party in congressional elections
50
Democrats
Republicans
48
46
44
42
40
38 4/1/19
6/20/19
9/8/19
Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Moody's Analytics
11/27/19
2/15/20
5/5/20
7/24/20
September 2020
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