PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID)



PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID)

CONCEPT STAGE

Report No.: AB2058

|Project Name |Multi-Sector Demographic Project |

|Region |AFRICA |

|Sector |Health (50%);Other social services (50%) |

|Project ID |P096198 |

|Borrower(s) |GOVERNMENT OF NIGER |

|Implementing Agency | |

| |Ministère de la Population et de l'Action sociale (MP/AS) |

| |Niger |

| |Niger |

|Environment Category |[ ] A [X] B [ ] C [ ] FI [ ] TBD (to be determined) |

|Date PID Prepared |December 19, 2005 |

|Estimated Date of Appraisal Authorization |May 1, 2006 |

|Estimated Date of Board Approval |January 16, 2007 |

1. Key development issues and rationale for Bank involvement

Key Development Issues. Niger’s ability to reduce poverty levels and meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is constrained by several factors such as the lack of abundant natural resources, the weak agricultural production systems, and the harsh climatic conditions. These severe constraints are compounded by the very high rate of population growth, estimated at 3.3% per annum, which has contributed to the recurrent food crises experienced by the country. Therefore future prospects for socio-economic development do hinge in large part on slowing down the rate of demographic growth. In the end, all development efforts including those advocated in the new Africa Action Plan (AAP) will depend on the attention given to the demographic variable by the leaders and the population of Niger as well as their development partners.

The United Nations (UN) population projections published in 2004 (Medium Variant) assume a decrease in mortality levels and a simultaneous decrease in fertility starting in 2005-2010 and attaining 3.6 children per woman in 2050. Even under these rather optimistic assumptions, Niger’s population would reach 50 million in 2050, or about five times its current size. With such a population, Niger would then become the second most populated country in West Africa, after Nigeria.

The rapid increase in Niger’s population is explained primarily by very high fertility levels, which are partly triggered by high levels of infant and child mortality. Deteriorating health services seem to have slowed and perhaps even halted the mortality decline during the 1990s. The most recent total fertility rate (TFR), as indicated by the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), is 7.5 children per woman. The UN Population Division estimated that Niger’s TFR had reached 8 children per woman in 2000-2005, making it the highest in the world. High fertility has also contributed to a younger age structure. With 50% of its population under the age of 15, and about 70% younger than 25, Niger’s age structure is one of the youngest in the world. Such a young population, combined with high fertility, leads to higher birth rate and therefore spiraling demographic growth. Rapid population growth contributes also to households’ poverty.

The continued high fertility rate is the result of multiple social factors that determine the current reproductive behavior of Niger’s population. These factors include pronatalist attitudes, faith, gender imbalances, early marriage, and poverty. The 1998 DHS indicated that desired fertility was even higher than observed fertility. Although about one in five women expressed unmet needs for family planning, a large majority of women was more concerned with birth spacing than overall family size. The insufficient availability and mediocre quality of reproductive health and family planning services, as well as traditional behavior patterns, contribute to low rates of contraceptive use. Marriage is early and universal, especially in the rural areas where 78% of the population lives. One out of two women is married by the age of 15, and only less than 1% of all women never marry. Furthermore, less than one out of ten adult women is educated.

The Government of Niger had decided to address the challenge of rapid population growth and has created a new Ministry of Population and Social Action (MP/AS). Furthermore, the Government and its development partners (e.g., UNFPA and AFD) have reached a consensus as to the need to address the issue of rapid population growth.

Rationale for Bank Involvement. The slowing down of the rapid demographic growth appears to be a sine qua non condition for any development effort to be meaningful in Niger. The proposed project objective will respond to the need to address the issue of population growth and is in line with Niger’s latest CAS (January 21, 2003) and the new Africa Action Plan (AAP) which stresses a multi-sector approach.

The Government of Niger has requested the assistance of the World Bank to help prepare a Multi-sector Demographic Program (PRODEM). The Bank had also been leading the preparation of a key analytical piece of work on population and poverty issues, i.e. the Report Providing All Nigeriens with Food, Education, and Health care: A Demographic Perspective. This work has been very well received in Niger, presented to the top echelons of the national leadership, disseminated widely within the country, and changed completely the national and international policy dialogue on population issues in the country. Furthermore, the Bank has a long experience and track-record on multi-sector development operations which could be harnessed to help Niger address its rapid population growth issue through a multi-sector approach. Finally, the Bank can link the proposed efforts on population to a broader framework of macro-economic reforms and poverty alleviation interventions.

2. Proposed objective(s)

The proposed Multi-sector Demographic Program (PRODEM) will focus on addressing the demographic challenge of Niger. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to build a national response to address the issue of rapid population growth and link this response to poverty alleviation and human welfare objectives. This objective will be achieved by: (a) strengthening the capacity of the Borrower to coordinate, monitor, and evaluate a large multi-sector demographic program including the supply-side interventions; and (b) helping put in place the necessary conditions for the onset of the fertility transition, in particular regarding demand-creation interventions.

3. Preliminary description

The Nigerien Bureau Central du Recensement has prepared new Population Projections (Les Projections de la population du Niger de 2005 à 2050). Those projections demonstrate that it is possible to change demographic trends, even in the short term. Immediate and concrete action is required if the country wants to restore the balance between its population growth and its development prospects and eventually reduce poverty levels.

With these goals in mind, four objectives must be followed and fulfilled simultaneously in order to trigger a fertility transition: (a) expanding access and choice of effective modern contraceptive methods; (b) increasing the age at marriage among women; and (c) promoting full breast-feeding, child spacing, and better infant/child nutrition.

In order to implement these necessary interventions, the PRODEM will need to address several broader systemic issues and major bottlenecks in the Nigerien society, with an emphasis on demand-creation activities. It is proposed that these issues be addressed through four major program components, namely: (a) improve maternal, infant and child survival; (b) expand family planning services; (c) enhance women’s education and autonomy; and (d) integrate population activities with development of basic infrastructures. It must be stressed that the PRODEM is not viewed as a project but as a program involving all sectors as well as all actors and stakeholders. The four proposed substantive components of the PRODEM, which are meant to reinforce each other interactively and synergistically according to a multi-sector approach, are as follows:

1. Improve maternal, infant and child survival. The PRODEM will first focus on coordinating and expanding the interventions of all stakeholders in order to help children survive. Four different dimensions will be addressed in this respect. First, the PRODEM will work on improving the knowledge of the mothers concerning their child’s health, and especially concerning vaccination and nutrition and their benefits. The PRODEM will also promote full and continuous breast-feeding (with colostrum and without water supplements) for the benefit of both children and mothers’ health and in order to favor child-spacing. The improvement of access to food and nutritional supplements as well as the food security aspects will also be part of the objective of helping children to survive. Finally, the PRODEM will work to develop and reinforce the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) framework.

2. Expand family planning services. The second component of the PRODEM will be to expand family planning services and particularly to build the necessary conditions to trigger a fertility transition, which is a necessary to complete the overall demographic transition. This will be done by addressing four dimensions: the coordination of the development of the offer of contraceptive services (especially, the modern methods); the creation of the demand, mostly through campaigns on IEC (information, education and communication) and BCC (behavioral communication for change); the strengthening of financing mechanisms for family planning services; and finally the reinforcement of existing links between family planning and HIV/AIDS interventions. Overall, the goal would be to reach an increase in the contraceptive prevalence rate for modern methods of 1 percentage point per year.

3. Enhance women’s education and autonomy. In order to obtain a more conducive environment for fertility reduction, the third component would focus on reinforcing the education and autonomy of Nigerien women in order to boost demand for birth spacing services. This will be achieved first through the development of their participation to community life and the reinforcement of communities. Moreover, women will need to have access to income generating activities that will need to be developed. This will not be possible without legal reforms and without greater implication of men so that women can get a stronger status in society. Education for every woman – at school and vocational training for young girls, but also through continuing education for adult women – will also enhance their autonomy.

4. Integrate population activities with development of basic infrastructures. The fourth and last objective of the PRODEM will be to integrate population activities with development of basic infrastructures. First, access to water is fundamental, as it is unlikely that any sanitary or even economic development could occur in a place where people do not have access to clean water for all their needs. The road network also needs to be improved in order to create a real unity and coherence in a vast country, where many regions are still isolated. There is also a need of new health and school infrastructures all over the country, so that basic services are available for all in the best conditions. The PRODEM will also coordinate the development of the electrical network, especially in urban zones. The program will not finance infrastructures but will make sure that infrastructures are developed with a reference to broader population considerations.

The PRODEM will focus on the demand-creation interventions, and reinforce them through IEC and BCC campaigns. The PRODEM will also benefit from interventions that are supply-driven, such as improved survival prospects for infants and children and provision of family planning services. This supply dimension is being addressed mostly through the health sector and with a variety of existing mechanisms such as health centers for the supply of services and commodities (contraceptives) mobile clinics coverage to five health districts (expansion of the Kollo pilot project), and social marketing distribution of contraceptives linked to efforts to mitigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

The PRODEM will also help coordinate, monitor and evaluate population interventions at large. Therefore, the MP/AS and its overarching Committee (see below) that will oversee the implementation of the PRODEM will need to position themselves in a higher niche of added value and focus essentially on the following functions: advocacy, legal reforms, coordination of interventions, training and capacity building, monitoring and evaluation, and resources mobilization to secure financial sustainability. All these functions could be regrouped into one fifth program component, i.e. a Coordination, M&E, and Capacity Building component, that will provide technical support to the other components.

4. Safeguard policies that might apply

The project is a category B, based on the integration of the population dimension within basic infrastructures in Component 4. The Ministry of Population and Social Action (MP/AS) will prepare an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) in compliance with OP 4.01. The ESMF will be disclosed prior to the appraisal mission. The level of engagement, institutional arrangements and implementation will be identified as project preparation progresses.

5. Tentative financing

|Source: |($m.) |

|BORROWER/RECIPIENT |0 |

|INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION |10 |

| Total |10 |

6. Contact point

Contact: John F. May

Title: Sr Population Spec.

Tel: (202) 458-7797

Fax: (202) 473-8216

Email: Jmay@

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