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Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

ESA/P/WP.250

World Population Prospects

The 2017 Revision

Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections

United Nations New York, 2017

The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities.

The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides the international community with timely and accessible population data and analysis of population trends and development outcomes for all countries and areas of the world. To this end, the Division undertakes regular studies of population size and characteristics and of all three components of population change (fertility, mortality and migration). Founded in 1946, the Population Division provides substantive support on population and development issues to the United Nations General Assembly, the Economic and Social Council and the Commission on Population and Development. It also leads or participates in various interagency coordination mechanisms of the United Nations system. The work of the Division also contributes to strengthening the capacity of Member States to monitor population trends and to address current and emerging population issues.

Notes

The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This report is available in electronic format on the Division's website at . For further information about this report, please contact the Office of the Director, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, 10017, USA, by fax: 1 212 963 2147 or by e-mail at population@.

Suggested citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections, Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.250. New York: United Nations.

Official symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with numbers, as illustrated in the above citation.

Cover photo credit: Photo ID 14788. Iridimi Camp, Chad. UN Photo/ Eskinder Debebe

Published by the United Nations Copyright ? United Nations, 2017 All rights reserved

PREFACE

This report provides a detailed overview of the methodology used to produce the 2017 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The 2017 Revision is the twenty-fifth round of global population estimates and projections produced by the Population Division since 1951.

The report first describes the way that country estimates have been prepared and then explains the approaches and assumptions that were used to project fertility, mortality and international migration up to the year 2100. The report also provides an overview of the variants used in generating the different sets of population projections as well as information on the recently developed probabilistic projection methods, which depict the uncertainty of future demographic trends, with results presented for all countries and areas of the world up to the year 2100. The Population Division has continued to refine the methods used for these probabilistic projections. It should be noted, however, that making projections to 2100 is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, especially at the country level. In that regard, users are encouraged to focus not only on the medium variant, which corresponds to the median of several thousand projected trajectories of specific demographic components, but also on the associated prediction intervals, which provide an assessment of the uncertainty inherent in such projections. Detailed information on the uncertainty bounds for different components at the country level is available on the website of the Population Division, (see also: ).

The 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects was prepared by a team led by Fran?ois Pelletier, including Lina Bassarsky, Helena Cruz Castanheira, Danan Gu, John Kanakos, Neena Koshy, Igor Ribeiro, Cheryl Sawyer, Thomas Spoorenberg and Guangyu Zhang. The team is grateful to other colleagues in the Population Division for the support they have provided, including to John Wilmoth for reviewing this report.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

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World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections

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