U.S. Consumer & Economic Impacts of U.S. Automotive Trade ...

U.S. Consumer & Economic Impacts of U.S. Automotive Trade Policies

Michael Schultz Kristin Dziczek Yen Chen Bernard Swiecki

? CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH | 2019

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................................ iii Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Trade and the U.S. Automotive Industry ...................................................................................................... 3 Policy Specifics .............................................................................................................................................. 6

Section 232 Tariffs on Imported Light Vehicles & Vehicle Parts............................................................... 6 USMCA ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Section 301 Tariffs on Imports from China ............................................................................................... 8 Section 232 Tariffs on Imported Steel & Aluminum ................................................................................. 9 Summary of Methods ................................................................................................................................... 9 Simulation Model...................................................................................................................................... 9 Simulation Inputs .................................................................................................................................... 10 Section 232 Tariffs on Imported Light Vehicles & Vehicle Parts............................................................. 10 USMCA .................................................................................................................................................... 10 Section 301 Tariffs on Imports from China ............................................................................................. 11 Section 232 Tariffs on Imported Steel & Aluminum ............................................................................... 11 U.S. Light Vehicle Production Capacity ................................................................................................... 12 Uncertain Impacts on Used Vehicles Prices, Repair, & Maintenance Costs ............................................... 12 Policy Scenarios........................................................................................................................................... 13 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 14 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................. 17 Works Cited................................................................................................................................................. 18 Methodology Appendix .............................................................................................................................. 21 The Simulation Model ............................................................................................................................. 21 Compliance with USMCA Rules of Origin................................................................................................ 22 Section 232 and Section 301 Tariffs........................................................................................................ 24 Known Biases .......................................................................................................................................... 26 Scenario Results Without Capacity Constraints...................................................................................... 27

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Sourcing of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, 2017 ..................................................................................... 4 Figure 2: Sourcing of U.S. Motor Vehicle Parts Imports, 2017 ..................................................................... 5 Figure 3: U.S. Consumer Price Indices for All Items-Except Food & Energy, and New Vehicles, 1994-20186

List of Tables

Table 1: USMCA Regional Value Content Requirements .............................................................................. 7 Table 2: Overview of U.S. Automotive Trade Scenarios Analyzed.............................................................. 14 Table 3: Source of Impacts, by Specific Policy, by Scenario........................................................................ 15 Table 4: Change in U.S. Light Vehicle Sales and Prices Under Various U.S. Automotive Trade Policies..... 16 Table 5: Change in Dealership Revenue, Employment, U.S. GDP, and Overall U.S. Employment Under Various U.S. Automotive Trade Scenarios ................................................................................................. 16 Table 6: Change in U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, and Prices Under Various U.S. Automotive Trade Policies -Capacity Unconstrained .............................................................................................................................. 28 Table 7: Change in Dealership Revenue, Employment, U.S. GDP, and Overall U.S. Employment Under Various U.S. Automotive Trade Scenarios ? Capacity Unconstrained ........................................................ 28

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Diana Douglass, and Jack Ombry at the Center for Automotive Research for their assistance with this briefing. This research was sponsored by the National Automobile Dealers Association.

For citations and reference to this publication, please use the following: Schultz, M., Dziczek, K., Chen, Y., and Swiecki, B. (2019). U.S. Consumer & Economic Impacts of U.S. Automotive Trade Policies. Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor, MI.

3005 Boardwalk, Suite 200 Ann Arbor, MI 48108

CAR's mission is to conduct independent research and analysis to educate, inform and advise stakeholders, policymakers, and the general public on critical issues facing the automotive industry, and the industry's impact on the U.S. economy and society.

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Executive Summary

A decision to impose tariffs on U.S. imports of autos and auto parts under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended (hereafter, "Section 232 autos and auto parts tariffs"), could far outweigh the impact of any previous trade action on the U.S. automotive industry, and on related U.S. consumer prices, sales, and employment. Moreover, this is true even though the implementation of the new United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) and other trade agreements will partially mitigate the effects of these tariffs.

The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) looked at ten different policy scenarios, projecting different combinations of policies and U.S. trade deals including: Section 232 autos and auto parts tariffs; the USMCA; the current (as of January 21, 2019) Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports; and the current Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs. Across all these policy scenarios, the impact on the U.S. new vehicle market and the broader U.S. economy is (1) substantial and (2) nearly entirely determined by the severity of the potential Section 232 tariffs on imported autos and auto parts.

Worst-case scenario

Under the scenario where (1) the USMCA is implemented in its current form, (2) other tariffs continue unmodified, and (3) the Section 232 auto and auto parts tariffs are imposed except on Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, the following will likely occur:

? A total of 366,900 U.S. jobs will be lost; ? U.S. light-duty vehicle prices will increase by USD 2,750 on average; ? U.S. new light-duty vehicle sales will drop by 1,319,700 units per year; and ? Many consumers will be forced into the used car market.

Importantly, in this worst-case scenario, the broad-based Section 232 autos and auto parts tariffs will be responsible for over 90 percent of the total economic harm.

Other scenarios

A range of current and potential U.S. trade actions will impact the U.S. automotive industry going forward ? from the new USMCA, to current tariffs on imports from China and imported steel and aluminum products from a wide range of trading partners, to the potential for new tariffs on imported automobiles and auto parts. No matter how these policies are combined, they operate to raise consumer prices for new vehicles, while lowering U.S. light vehicle sales, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and total and new vehicle dealership employment.

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