Population Projections Report 2012

2012 DEMOGRAPHIC STATE OF THE STATE REPORT

OKLAHOMA STATE AND COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2075

Steve Barker, MBA Sr. Research Analyst/Program Manager Policy, Research and Economic Analysis Division Oklahoma Department of Commerce

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Executive Summary

6,000,000

Oklahoma: Statewide Population 2012 to 2075 Forecast

Based on Sum of Individual County Forecasts

5,000,000

3,751,351

4,000,000

3,450,654

3,145,585 3,025,290

3,000,000

2,559,229 2,328,284

2,028,228,3396,0402,336,4342,233,351

2,000,000 1,657,155

1,000,000

0

5,560,007

Oklahoma Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Oklahoma Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Oklahoma Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)

Oklahoma's population is projected to top 5 million by the time the state celebrates its 150th birthday.

By the 2020 Census, Oklahoma's population will top 4 million By the mid 2050s, Oklahoma's population will top 5 million By 2075, Oklahoma's population will top 5.5 million

Oklahoma's population is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.73% over the next 65 years, equivalent to the US Census Bureau's most recent national growth forecasts through 2050. The Census Bureau does not have state level population forecasts.

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075

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Counties surrounding present day Tulsa and Oklahoma City metro areas are forecast to see substantial population growth. In 2010, the 14 counties currently included in the Tulsa and Oklahoma City MSAs combined to represent 58.4% of the state's total population but by 2075, those same 14 counties are forecast to represent 64.2% of the state's total population. Tulsa and Oklahoma counties alone will combine to represent 35.6% of the state's population.

Creek Okmulgee Osage Pawnee Rogers Tulsa Wagoner Total Tulsa MSA

2010 Population

for Counties That Make Up Present Day Tulsa and OKC MSAs

69,967

Canadian

40,069

Cleveland

47,472

Grady

16,577

Lincoln

86,905

Logan

603,403

McClain

73,085

Oklahoma

937,478

Total OKC MSA

Percentage of

25.0%

Statewide total

Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census

115,541 255,755

52,431 34,273 41,848 34,506 718,633 1,252,987

33.4%

Creek Okmulgee Osage Pawnee Rogers Tulsa Wagoner Total Tulsa MSA

2075 Population Forecast

for Counties That Make Up Present Day Tulsa and OKC MSAs

109,751

Canadian

44,406

Cleveland

71,916

Grady

24,929

Lincoln

173,122

Logan

934,215

McClain

144,991

Oklahoma

1,503,330

Total OKC MSA

Percentage of

27.0%

Statewide total

Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce

232,316 521,368

82,549 55,400 69,711 61,698 1,042,525 2,065,568

37.2%

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There are 25 counties in Oklahoma forecast to experience population decline over the next 65 years. Many of these counties, mostly in western Oklahoma, experienced their peak population levels in 1910, shortly after Oklahoma achieved statehood. While these counties are expected to continue to experience population declines, the rate of decline is expected to slow over the coming decades.

Counties forecast to experience population decline between 2010 and 2075

Alfalfa

Cotton

Greer

Jefferson

Roger Mills

Beaver

Craig

Harmon

Kay

Seminole

Blaine

Dewey

Harper

Kiowa

Tillman

Choctaw

Ellis

Hughes

Major

Washita

Cimarron

Grant

Jackson

Nowata

Woods

Oklahoma's population is also expected to live longer on average. An increasingly larger percentage of the state's population will gradually be made up by older population groups.

In 2010, 13.5% of the state's population was aged 65 or older By 2075, 19.8% of the state's population will be aged 65 or older

Age 00 to 04 Age 05 to 09 Age 10 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 40 to 44 Age 45 to 49 Age 50 to 54 Age 55 to 59 Age 60 to 64 Age 65 to 69 Age 70 to 74 Age 75 to 79 Age 80 to 84 Age 85+

Total Population

Statewide population projections by age group

2010

2075

Population

As %

Projected Population

264,126

7.0%

347,853

259,336

6.9%

349,177

253,664

6.8%

350,455

264,484

7.1%

350,949

269,242

7.2%

350,816

265,737

7.1%

350,657

241,018

6.4%

350,293

232,742

6.2%

349,324

228,195

6.1%

347,057

261,242

7.0%

342,806

264,369

7.0%

335,832

235,969

6.3%

325,586

204,513

5.5%

310,576

159,392

4.2%

289,062

121,075

3.2%

258,716

95,051

2.5%

217,121

69,284

1.8%

166,952

61,912

1.7%

166,777

As % 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0%

3,751,351 100.0%

5,560,007 100.0%

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Methodology

General discussion of projection formulas State level projections used in this report start with population counts revealed under the 2010 Decennial Census and follow generally accepted forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau. For simplicity, the basic demographic formulas used in this report are as follows:

Population in the current year + Births in the current year - Deaths in the current year + Net migration Equals

Population projection for the next year

Population projection for the next year + estimated births in the current year, based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age

- Deaths in the current year + Net migration Equals

Population projection for the following year

What population groups are included in projections All population figures cited in this report, whether historic counts or forward looking projections, include the following:

All civilian residents living within the state Members of the US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma All persons incarcerated in the state of Oklahoma, including out of state prisoners held at

private prisons located within the state

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Projection of births and fertility rates This report uses statewide total fertility rates from Table S1301 of the US Census Bureau's 2006-2010 American Community Survey. Based on survey responses gathered over 5 years, Table S1301 reports the rate of births per 1,000 women by three age categories. Table S1301 indicates Oklahoma's rate of women with births in the past 12 months (an annual time frame) were:

Among women aged 15-19 there were 37 births per 1,000 women Among women aged 20-34 there were 113 births per 1,000 women Among women aged 35-49, there were 15 births per 1,000 women

A summary of Table S1301 is included in Appendix 1.

While birth rates have been generally declining across the United States and in Oklahoma for some time, that rate of decline has also been slowing in recent years. Further, the state's growing Hispanic population typically has a higher birth rate than the rate shown for the population in total.

This report does not project populations by race or ethnicity, but it is assumed that the state's Hispanic population will continue to grow. As the percentage of Hispanics in Oklahoma increases, it is also assumed that the rate of decline in the state's overall birth rate will slow or possibly reverse. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the longer term direction for birth rates in Oklahoma, the population projections in this report assume that the overall birth rate will remain constant over the longer term.

Projection of deaths United States survival rates by single age and gender for 2007 were obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control at and are included in Appendix 2.

National survival rates were used to calculate Oklahoma life expectancy for each age group over the next 65 years. Those survival rates are not likely to remain static with improvements in health care technology and Oklahoma embarking on efforts like smoking reduction programs and diabetes awareness efforts to change the state's overall health characteristics. However, the rapid onset of other health concerns, like the national epidemic of obesity, could also adversely impact the state's longer term life expectancy figures.

Because of the difficulty in forecasting future changes in life expectancy, Oklahoma's age specific survival rates are assumed to remain constant for the purposes of the populations projections contained within this report.

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Projection of net migration As difficult as the previous variables are to project, migration is likely even more difficult to gauge. As the state's previous population projections report stated following the release of the 2000 Census results, "The only consistency in Oklahoma's recent migration history has been its unpredictability."

How volatile is this component of population growth? Between 1970 and 1983, Oklahoma's overall population growth rate grew at a heated pace, reaching peak annual growth of 3.6% in 1982. Some less populated counties in eastern Oklahoma, driven in part by new oil discoveries and well construction, experienced double digit annual percentage growth. Then by 1987 the state's annual population growth rate dropped to -1.3% and some of those same double digit growth counties were showing nearly double digit declines. Appendix 3 shows more detailed information about the history of Oklahoma's components of population change, including net migration figures.

Between 1960 and 2011, Oklahoma's population gain due to net migration averaged slightly over 10,000 people annually, with swings ranging from a gain of 80,500 in 1982 to a decline of 61,000 in 1987. Ignoring the volatility found in the 1970s and 1980s, and limiting net migration to the 1990s and 2000s, Oklahoma's average annual net migration gain was just under 15,000. For this analysis, the state's annual population growth figure has been assumed to run at a consistent rate of adding 15,000 people annually.

County population projections County population projections were obtained using a more generalized process than the statewide approach already outlined above. Linear regression trendline formulas, based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011, were deemed sufficient to develop county population projections for 64 of Oklahoma's 77 counties. For the remaining 13 counties, straight linear regression formulas yielded unrealistic population levels and another option needed to be used.

Linear models were judged to be insufficient for Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods counties. For these counties, a curved, or power, trendline was judged to be a better fit.

Statistically, trendline formulas have a measure of `fit' known as the r-squared value. The closer the r- squared value is to a value of one, the better the formula matches up with actual population figures. Going one step further, the higher the r-squared value, the better the assumed predictability of future values. This report includes both the trendline formula used for each county's population, plus the associated r-squared value as a measure of how well the formula fits the historic population levels and how well the formula might predict future populations, all other things being held constant.

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Matching up the two methodologies Statewide estimates have been developed using two different methods, each arriving at a similar conclusion before balancing. With each method acting as a comparative "check" against the other, it is believed these estimates are as accurate as possible, excluding any unforeseen changes in economic or political condition. When the Census Bureau develops annual population estimates based on birth, death and migration data, they encounter situations where the sum of the parts doesn't exactly equal the expected whole. To resolve the issue, they use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a "margin of error" within their birth, death and migration figures. This report used a similar approach to unify the results of the statewide methodology with the county level methodology. Summing county level population projections yielded a population total that was comfortably close to the state level population projections, but there was a small degree of difference that necessitated a slight population adjustment at the statewide level. Over the course of the 65 years between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment averaged 0.2% of each year's total population. This was deemed an acceptable range of variation and was added into the statewide population total for balancing purposes.

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