US Economic Outlook - Michigan

US Econom ic Out look

12 January 2017

Chris G. Christ opher, Jr., PhD, CBE Direct or US Macro & Global Econom ics + 1 781 301 9113 chris.christ opher@ihsm arkit .com

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Chris G. Christopher, Jr., PhD, CBE

Chr is G. Chr ist ophe r , Jr . is Direct or in t he US

Macro and Global Econom ics services of I HS

Markit . He brings 25 years of experience as an

econom ist,

academ ic,

forecast er,

and

dem ographer. He a leading m em ber of t he US

Macro forecast ing t eam and direct s t he US

Consum er Market s and Global Consum er Market s

ser v ices.

Prior t o j oining I HS, Christ opher worked for FedEx Services in the forecasting departm ent and as t he Chief Econom et rician for OI T developing nat ional and regional econom etric m odels. I n addition, he worked as a research econom ist at Regional Econom ic Models, I nc. ( REMI ) ; t he New York St at e Legislat ive Tax St udy Com m issions; and as an associat e professor, adm inist rat or, and universit y lecturer in econom etrics, econom ics, and business.

Christ opher holds a Bachelor of Art s in econom ics and polit ical science, Mast er of Art s in econom ics, Mast er of Art s in m at hem at ics, Doct orat e of Philosophy in econom ics from t he Universit y at Albany. His Ph.D. concent rat ions are in gam e t heory, m at hem at ical econom ics, econom et rics, and large- scale econom ic m odeling and his Ph.D. dissert at ion is t it led A General Equilibrium Model of Econom ic I nt egrat ion.

Dr. Christ opher has t aught various graduat e and undergraduate courses at various business schools and econom ics departm ents. At the graduate level he taught courses in econom etrics, m acroeconom ic m odeling, forecasting & policy analysis, and public econom ics. At t he undergraduate level he t aught several courses in m acroeconom ics, m icroeconom ics, m athem atical econom ic m ethods, econom ic statistics.

Dr. Christ opher is oft en int erviewed on m acroeconom ic and consum er related m atters by t he US and European m edia. I n addit ion, he w rit es a quart erly colum n for CSCMP's Supply Chain Quart erly, has several academ ic publicat ions, and writes perspective pieces for the m ass m edia.

He is a m em ber of t he Econom et ric Societ y, Am erican Econom ic Associat ion, and Nat ional Associat ion of Business Econom ist s ( NABE) . Chris is on the board of econom ic advisors for the New York St at e Assem bly, and a m em ber of t he NABE Travel & Transport at ion Roundt able. I n addit ion, Chris is a NABE Cert ified Business Econom ist ( CBE) , Consensus Econom ics 2013 forecast accuracy award winner ( US GDP & CPI ) .

? 2017 I HS Markit . All Right s Reserved.

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US econom ic growt h will st rengt hen

? US consum ers and businesses ent er 2017 wit h rising opt im ism . ? Consum er spending will increase at a m oderat e pace, sust ained by

gains in em ploym ent, real incom es, and household net worth. ? Business fixed investm ent will benefit from an im proving tax and

regulatory environm ent, along with a recovery in energy prices. ? Wit h dem and out pacing supply, housing m arket s cont inue t o recover. ? The recovery in indust rial product ion will gain m om ent um as t he

inventory correction nears com pletion. ? Fiscal st im ulus, accelerat ing prices and wages, and st rengt hening

loan dem and will lead to higher interest rates. ? I n response t o t he dollar's appreciat ion, real im port growt h will

outpace real export growth. ? Recent evidence is support ing "Anim al Spirit s" of a consum er and

business kind. I n addit ion, t o a st ronger st ock m arket and dollar.

? 2017 I HS Markit . All Right s Reserved.

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President- elect Trum p's dom est ic policy plat form

? Reform personal incom e t axat ion, reducing t he num ber of bracket s from seven to three (12% , 25% , and 33% )

? Reduce t he corporat e incom e t ax rat e from 35% t o 15% and apply the 15% rate to pass- through businesses

? Repeal and replace t he Affordable Care Act ? I ncrease spending on infrastructure and defense ? Freeze hiring of federal em ployees t o reduce workforce by at t rit ion ? Cancel execut ive act ions t aken by President Obam a ? Ease rest rict ions on energy product ion, allow pipeline proj ect s t o

m ove forward, and open federal lands for energy exploration ? Change Dodd- Frank financial regulat ions

? 2017 I HS Markit . All Right s Reserved.

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President- elect Trum p's int ernat ional policy plat form

? Foreign policy guided by an "Am erica first " principal, em phasizing strength at hom e rather than engagem ents abroad

? Renegot iat e t he Nort h Am erican Free Trade Agreem ent ( NAFTA) ? Wit hdraw from t he Trans- Pacific Part nership ( TPP) ? Label China a currency m anipulat or ( alt hough China has int ervened t o

support the renm inbi over the past two years) ? Build a wall t o close t he sout hern border wit h Mexico ? Deport or im prison illegal im m igrants with felony convictions, m ultiple

m isdem eanor convictions, or two prior deportations ? Tight ened screening of im m igrant s, " ext rem e vet t ing" of refugees

? 2017 I HS Markit . All Right s Reserved.

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