US Government Finance: Debt - Yardeni Research
US Government Finance: Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 19, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
US Treasury Debt Debt Limit US Treasury Debt Public Debt Fed's Holdings of US Treasuries Foreign Central Banks' Holdings of US Treasuries All Central Banks' Holdings of US Treasuries Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries Foreign Official Assets US Capital Inflows: Treasuries US Capital Inflows: Agencies Bank Holdings Twin Deficits Total Outstand Marketable Debt
1 2 3-4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15-16
November 19, 2020 / US Government Finance: Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
US Treasury Debt
Figure 1.
4650
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT & BORROWING (billion dollars)
4150
4650
Oct
4150
3650
US Treasury Securities
3150
Held by Public
(yearly change)
US Federal Budget Deficit
2650
(12-month sum)
3650 Oct
3150 2650
2150
2150
1650
1650
1150
1150
650
650
150
150
-350
-350
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: US Treasury Department.
Figure 2.
1450
1450
US TREASURY SECURITIES OUTSTANDING PUBLICLY HELD
1300 (billion dollars, monthly change)
1300
1150
1150
1000
1000
850
850
700
700
550
550
400
400
250
250
100
Oct
100
-50
-50
-200
-200
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: US Treasury Department.
Page 1 / November 19, 2020 / US Government Finance: Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Debt Limit
Figure 3.
28
TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING 26 (trillion dollars, nsa)
28 Oct
26
24
24
22
20
Subject to Debt Limit (27.1)
Statutory Debt Limit (22.0)
18
Publicly Held
Treasury Securities Outstanding (21.1) 16
Jul
22
Oct
20
18
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.
Figure 4.
9.5
US FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 9.0 (trillion dollars, nsa)
8.5
8.0
9.5
9.0 Oct
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.
Page 2 / November 19, 2020 / US Government Finance: Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
US Treasury Debt
Figure 5.
22
US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (trillion dollars, nsa)
20
18
22 Oct
20
Oct 18
16
16
14
14
Publicly Held
Treasury Securities Outstanding
12
Marketable*
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes and bonds. Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.
Figure 6.
12
US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC 11 (trillion dollars, nsa)
10
12
Oct
11
10
9
Marketable Interest-Bearing
9
8
Bills
8
Notes
7
Bonds
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.
Page 3 / November 19, 2020 / US Government Finance: Debt
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