US Government Finance: Debt - Yardeni Research

US Government Finance: Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 19, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Mali Quintana

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

US Treasury Debt Debt Limit US Treasury Debt Public Debt Fed's Holdings of US Treasuries Foreign Central Banks' Holdings of US Treasuries All Central Banks' Holdings of US Treasuries Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries Foreign Official Assets US Capital Inflows: Treasuries US Capital Inflows: Agencies Bank Holdings Twin Deficits Total Outstand Marketable Debt

1 2 3-4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15-16

November 19, 2020 / US Government Finance: Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



US Treasury Debt

Figure 1.

4650

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT & BORROWING (billion dollars)

4150

4650

Oct

4150

3650

US Treasury Securities

3150

Held by Public

(yearly change)

US Federal Budget Deficit

2650

(12-month sum)

3650 Oct

3150 2650

2150

2150

1650

1650

1150

1150

650

650

150

150



-350

-350

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: US Treasury Department.

Figure 2.

1450

1450

US TREASURY SECURITIES OUTSTANDING PUBLICLY HELD

1300 (billion dollars, monthly change)

1300

1150

1150

1000

1000

850

850

700

700

550

550

400

400

250

250

100

Oct

100

-50

-50



-200

-200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: US Treasury Department.

Page 1 / November 19, 2020 / US Government Finance: Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Debt Limit

Figure 3.

28

TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING 26 (trillion dollars, nsa)

28 Oct

26

24

24

22

20

Subject to Debt Limit (27.1)

Statutory Debt Limit (22.0)

18

Publicly Held

Treasury Securities Outstanding (21.1) 16

Jul

22

Oct

20

18

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4



2

2

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Figure 4.

9.5

US FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 9.0 (trillion dollars, nsa)

8.5

8.0

9.5

9.0 Oct

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.5

7.0

7.0

6.5

6.5

6.0

6.0

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0



1.5

1.5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Page 2 / November 19, 2020 / US Government Finance: Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



US Treasury Debt

Figure 5.

22

US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (trillion dollars, nsa)

20

18

22 Oct

20

Oct 18

16

16

14

14

Publicly Held

Treasury Securities Outstanding

12

Marketable*

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4



2

2

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes and bonds. Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Figure 6.

12

US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC 11 (trillion dollars, nsa)

10

12

Oct

11

10

9

Marketable Interest-Bearing

9

8

Bills

8

Notes

7

Bonds

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1



0

0

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Page 3 / November 19, 2020 / US Government Finance: Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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