The US Steel Industry - Metal Bulletin



NEW and Expanded

The US Steel Industry

State-by-State Analysis and Forecasts out to 2020

Never seen before data for each of the

50 states

l What is the growth potential for specific steel products in each US state out to 2020? l Which steel products have the best long-term prospects? l What are the growth prospects for each end-user sector in the USA out to 2020?



The US Steel Industry

State-by-State Analysis and Forecasts out to 2020

Metal Bulletin Research (MBR) has conducted extensive research into the US market on a national and state level in this new, exclusive and comprehensive study on the US steel industry ? The US Steel Industry ? State-by-State Analysis and Forecasts out to 2020.

The study provides comprehensive steel database for the US market ever constructed offering the following:

1) Steel Consumption by each major steel product including:

Flat Products l Hot rolled sheets/coils l Cold rolled sheets/coils l Plates cut lengths & coils l Sheets & strip ? galvanized l Tin plate l Sheets & strip - electrical l Other (steel piling, tool steel, wire drawn or rolled, black plate, tin free steel, tin coated sheets, sheet & strip ? other coated, strip ? hot rolled, and strip ? cold rolled)

Long Products l Wire rods l Structural shapes l Rails & railroad accessories l Bars - hot rolled l Bars - reinforcing l Bars - cold finished l Piping and tubing - oil country goods l Other pipe and tube

2) Consumption by major end-user sector including: l Appliances and White Goods l Automotive l Service Centers l Construction

l Containers l Electrical l Machinery l Oil and Gas l Rail l Shipbuilding l Other

3) Consumption data for each of the 50 states of the United States of America

The methodology behind MBR's data and forecasts out to 2020

l Steel data was taken from AISI, AMM and MBR sources

l Various governmental statistical sources were employed to allocate products to states

l US Economic Census l Our forecasting methodology approach

included forecasting total US finished steel production; steel imports; shares by industry of total finished steel consumption; share by product for each of the industries; state shares for each of the industries l We employed the robust Box-Jenkins timeseries statistical regression approach in formulating our forecasting in tandem with conducting interviews with producers, traders, local/federal associations, service centers, and consumers in the automotive, appliance, shipping, energy and construction industries in applying `real-world' data



US state sample extract: Arizona

*Sample Table: US Consumption of Steel ? "End User Sector - Automotive" - 1985-2020

Product type

Wire Rods Structural Shapes (3" & over)

Plates Cut Lengths & Coils Bars - Hot Rolled (Including light Shapes)

Bars - Reinforcing Bars - Cold Finished Other Pipe and Tube

Tin Plate Sheets - Hot Rolled Sheets - Cold Rolled Sheets & Strip - Galvanized Sheets & Strip - Electrical

Other Total

Tons

1985

2011

2020

500,689 86,019 97,876

123,423 6,455 25,582

212,139 59,278 171,026

1,183,557 113,230 864,090

100,074 5,779 20,600

78,457 91,273 349,015

276,719 69,060 180,319

36,381 3,555

263

531,569 65,484 257,888

732,334 223,973 416,375

287,794 59,539 173,499

6,134 1,139

2,961

442,515 21,519 63,348

5,290,095 962,091 3,045,018

Rank of steel Consumption

1985

2011

2020

5

5

9

10

12

12

9

9

8

1

3

1

11

13

13

12

4

3

8

6

6

13

14

16

4

7

5

3

1

2

7

8

7

16

16

15

6

11

11

Percentage

1985

2011

2020

9.5%

8.9%

3.2%

2.3%

0.7%

0.8%

4.0%

6.2%

5.6%

22.4% 11.8% 28.4%

1.9%

0.6%

0.7%

1.5%

9.5% 11.5%

5.2%

7.2%

5.9%

0.7%

0.4%

0.0%

10.0%

6.8%

8.5%

13.8% 23.3% 13.7%

5.4%

6.2%

5.7%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

8.4%

2.2%

2.1%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Coverage is by each of the 50 states and by end-user sector including: White Goods, Construction, Containers, Electrical, Machinery, Oil and Gas, Outside Processing and Converting, Rail, Service Centres and Shipbuilding.

*Dummy data

State Rank

Service Centers Construction Auto Rail Shipbuilding Oil and Gas Machinery Electrical Appliances Containers Total

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

1985 30 15 35 30 29 33 21 34 20 28 31

2011 29 14 34 30 31 37 36 35 19 28 27

2020 29 12 34 30 31 37 36 34 18 28 25

Percentage of Steel Consumed by Industry

1985 0.4% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8%

2011 0.7% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0%

2020 0.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 1.1%

"I would recommend Metal Bulletin Research as a unique provider of steel market analysis and forecasts"

Michael Amez, Manager, A.T.Kearney, USA



Steel consumption: Container industry 1985 (tons)

N

Steel consumption: Container industry 2011 (tons)

N

Legend

0 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 200,000

200,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 300,000 300,001 - 350,000 350,001 - 400,000

400,001 - 450,000 450,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 550,000 550,001 - 600,000

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

600,001 - 650,000 650,001 - 700,000 700,001 - 750,000 750,001 - 800,000

800,001 - 850,000 850,001 - 900,000

Legend

0 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 200,000

200,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 300,000 300,001 - 350,000 350,001 - 400,000

400,001 - 450,000 450,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 550,000 550,001 - 600,000

600,001 - 650,000 650,001 - 700,000 700,001 - 750,000 750,001 - 800,000

800,001 - 850,000 850,001 - 900,000

Key questions addressed in the study:

l Where should you build your plant to best meet future steel consumption patterns? l Where are steel consumers based? How has steel consumption migrated since 1985 and where will it transform out

to 2020?

l What regions of the USA will show the most growth in steel consumption in the longer term? l Which steel-consuming sectors have growth potential? Which sectors are declining? l What is the growth potential for specific steel products in each US state and by value added type out to 2020?

Which steel products have the best long-term prospects?

Steel consumption: Electrical sheet 1985 (tons)

N

Steel consumption: Electrical sheet 2011 (tons)

N

Legend

0 - 4,000 4,001 - 8,000 8,001 - 12,000

12,001 - 16,000 16,001 - 20,000 20,001 - 24,000

24,001 - 28,000 28,001 - 32,000 32,001 - 36,000

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

36,001 - 40,000 40,001 - 44,000

Legend

0 - 4,000 4,001 - 8,000 8,001 - 12,000

12,001 - 16,000 16,001 - 20,000 20,001 - 24,000

24,001 - 28,000 28,001 - 32,000 32,001 - 36,000

36,001 - 40,000 40,001 - 44,000

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Table of contents

1. US Steel Market

US total production of steel US production of steel-product form US total imports of steel US imports of steel-product form US total exports of steel US exports of steel-product form US total apparent domestic consumption of steel US apparent domestic consumption of steel-product form

2. Our Approach

Classification of industries Service Centers White Goods Automotive Construction Containers Electrical Machinery Oil and Gas Rail Shipbuilding Other

Classification of steel products Forecast

3. Steel Consumption by Industry 1985-2020

US apparent domestic consumption of steel industry White Goods-1985-2020

Total consumption Product Mix Quality White Goods consumption - product form - by state 1985-2020 Industry-Automotive Total consumption Product Mix Quality Automotive consumption - product form - by state 1985-2020 Industry-Construction Total Consumption Product Mix Quality Construction consumption - product form - by state 1985-2020 Industry-Containers Total Consumption Product Mix Quality Containers consumption - product form by state 1985-2020 Industry-Electrical Total consumption Product Mix Quality Electrical consumption - product form by state 1985-2020 Industry-Machinery Total consumption

Product Mix Quality Machinery consumption - product form by state 1985-2020 Industry - Oil and Gas Total consumption Product Mix Quality Oil and Gas consumption - product form - by state 1985-2020 Industry-Outside Processing and Converting Total consumption Product Mix Quality Outside Processing and Converting consumption - product form 1985-2020 Industry-Rail Total consumption Product Mix Quality Rail consumption - product form - by state 1985-2020 Industry-Service Centers Total consumption Product Mix Quality Service Center consumption - product form - by state 1985-2020 Industry-Shipbuilding Total consumption Product Mix Quality Shipbuilding - product form - by state 1985-2020 Industry-Other Total consumption Product Mix Other consumption - product form - by state 1985-2020

4. Steel Consumption - Product

Total Consumption Ingots

Consumption-ingots-by industry Consumption-ingots-by state Wire rod Consumption-wire rod-by industry Consumption-wire rod-by state Structural Consumption-structural-by industry Consumption-structural-by state Plate Consumption-plate-by industry Consumption-plate-by state Rails Consumption-rails-by industry Consumption-rail-by state Hot rolled bar Consumption-hot rolled bar-by industry Consumption-hot rolled bar-by state Reinforcing bar Consumption-reinforcing bar-by industry Consumption-reinforcing bar-by state

Cold finished bar Consumption-cold finished bar-by industry Consumption-cold finished bar-by state

Pipe and tube OCTG Consumption-pipe and tube OCTG-by industry Consumption- pipe and tube OCTG-by state

Pipe and tube other Consumption-pipe and tube other-by industry Consumption-pipe and tube other-by state

Tin plate Consumption-tin plate-by industry Consumption-tin plate-by state

Hot rolled sheet Consumption-hot rolled sheet-by industry Consumption-hot rolled sheet-by state

Cold rolled sheet Consumption-cold rolled sheet-by industry Consumption-cold rolled sheet-by state

Galvanized sheet Consumption-galvanized sheet- by industry Consumption-galvanized sheet-by state

Electrical sheet Consumption-electrical sheet-by industry Consumption-electrical sheet-by state

Other Consumption-other-by industry Consumption-other-by state

Steel Consumption - By State

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana

Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

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The US Steel Industry ?

NEW and Expanded

State-by-State Analysis and Forecasts out to 2020

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YOUR COMPANY TYPE

p Raw Material Supply (0003) p Metal/Steel Production/ p Processing (0027) p Fabrication/Manufacturing

(0055)

p Distribution (0095) p Services/Products for the

Industry (0111)

p End-User Sector (0167)

p Finance Companies (0271) p Production (0275) p Processing & Equipment (0279) p Trading (0287) p Transport ? Ports (0291) p Non-Ferrous Foundry (0303) p Extruding (0311) p Other Primary Metal Products

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YOUR METALS INTEREST

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p Stainless Steel (12159) p Steel Wire (12230) p Galvanising & Coated Coil

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DATA PROTECTION NOTICE

p Ferro Alloys (13000) p Scrap & Secondary Metals

(14000)

p Steelmaking Raw Materials

(12231)

p Iron Ore (12232)

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Other relevant Metal Bulletin Research publications include:

? A Strategic Outlook for the OCTG Heat Treatment, Threading, Coupling and Premium Connection Sectors out to 2020 ? Logistical constraints facing the Metallurgical Coal Export Market out to 2016 ? Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker ? Steel: Weekly Market Tracker ? Value Creation Strategies for the Steel Industry ? Challenges and Opportunities by Major End-User Consuming Markets ? A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the Global Metallurgical Coal Industry ? A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the Global Coke Industry ? A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the Global Iron Ore Industry ? Global Iron Ore Cost Service ? Global Steel Cost Service ? The Five Year Strategic Outlook for the Middle East and North African Steel Industry ? Trading Iron Ore: An in-depth and independent analysis of the iron ore trading market and how it could evolve ? The Five Year Strategic Outlook for the Global Large-diameter Linepipe Market ? A Strategic Investment Outlook for the African Metals and Mining Sector: Markets, Political Risk and Resource Potential out to 2020

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Study published December 2012

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