Egg Markets Overview

Egg Markets Overview

A weekly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock and Poultry Program, Agricultural Analytics Division

Wholesale prices for cartoned shell eggs advanced through the week as product is moving into marketing channels to support holiday demand. Supplies remain sufficient for current needs but marketers are looking to keep stocks at sufficient levels. Offerings are moderate and trading is slow to moderate on good interest. Wholesale prices for graded loose eggs moved higher through the week. Offerings are light to moderate and held with confidence. Supplies are mostly adequate and interest is good. The pace of trading is at least moderate. The volume of trailer load sales this week increased 1% from last week as marketers work to maintain their stocks. Prices for national trading of trucklot quantities of graded, loose, White Large shell eggs increased $0.13 to $0.721 per dozen with a higher undertone. The wholesale price on the New York market for Large cartoned shell eggs delivered to retailers rose $0.17 to $1.20 per dozen with a higher undertone. The Midwest wholesale price for Large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses was unchanged at $0.87 per dozen and prices paid to producers in the Midwest for Large cartoned shell eggs rose $0.11 to $0.79 per dozen, both with a higher undertone. The California benchmark for Large shell eggs rose $0.14 to $1.57 per dozen with a firm undertone. Delivered prices on the California wholesale loose egg market increased $0.39 to $1.405 per dozen with a higher undertone.

Weekly Loose Shell Egg, Large, White, National Index (f.o.b. dock, cents per dozen)

270 2019

225

180

135

90

45

0

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

O

Weekly U.S. Table Egg Demand (Shell Egg Demand Index)

2019

40

30

Consumer demand for shell eggs took an unexpected downturn even as the Thanksgiving demand and retail promotional season got underway. This is a trend more reminiscent of 2019 when the average ad price at retail was 6% over the current level as compared to 2020 when ad price levels were 11% under current levels, which may be contributing to the current cautious level of consumer demand. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices for shell eggs are up 29% from the end of October 2020. Holiday-focused promotions are now out in force in retail outlets across the country and it remains to be seen if consumers will respond favorably with Thanksgiving now just two weeks away.

20

10

0

-10

-20

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

O

November 12, 2021

2020

2021

N

D

2020

2021

N

D

Promotional activity for conventional shell eggs in retail outlets declines as the Thanksgiving marketing season peaks. The average ad price rises sharply, up $0.16 to $1.03 per dozen. Retail egg purchases into this week were estimated to decrease 19% as marketers are already looking past the holiday. Promotional activity for specialty shell eggs increases from last week's pace with all types enjoying a strong level of feature activity. Feature activity for UEP-defined cage-free shell eggs increases and accounts for 33% of all shell egg types on feature. The average ad price rises $0.21 to $2.64 per dozen and the average ad price spread between 12-packs of Large caged eggs and UEP cagefree eggs widens by $0.06 per dozen to a spread of $1.61 per dozen.

The overall inventory of shell eggs increased 3% and the nation-wide inventory of Large eggs was up 6%. The inventory of Large eggs in the key Midwest production region swelled 16% as stocks rebuilt following last week's active clearance rate as product moved

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Consumer Price Index Average Price Data - Large A Shell Eggs per Dozen Bureau of Labor Statistics

2.20

2.00

1.80

1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2021

2020

2019

1.82

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Egg Markets Overview

into marketing channels to support the most active retail promotional period on the last two years. Shell eggs are expected to continue to flow into the retail supply chain to support ongoing and breaking feature activity. Retail purchases into this week were unchanged as many marketers work from staged stocks with an eye towards replenishment in the near future. The inventory share of Large class shell eggs increased to a 49% share of all shell egg stocks on inventory at the start of the week. Stocks of cagefree eggs were increased 3% to support increasing retail activity while stocks of nutritionally-enhanced shell eggs shrank by 5.5% as eggs cleared to support retail promotions. Breaking stock inventories declined 1.5% as spot market offerings are less available as carton business expands. Schedules remain at a full-time pace but the calendar is nearing the seasonal production decline as holiday demand for shell eggs peaks. Total table egg production for the week was unchanged from the prior week but down slightly from the prior year for an approximate deficit of 292,000 cases.

Wholesale prices for breaking stock in the Central States gained $0.08 to $0.67 per dozen with a fully steady undertone as carton business is peaking and spot market offerings are expected to become more available in the near-term. Supplies are light to moderate and demand is moderate. Trading is slowing while breaking schedules remain full-time. The volume of eggs processed over the past week was about unchanged and remained at a 31% share of weekly table egg production. Production of whole egg was down 1% while production of whites declined 3% and yolks just under a half percent. The production of dried eggs decreased 3% and that for inedible egg declined 6.5%. Breaking yields without inedible declined to 40.52 pounds per case broken.

Wholesale prices for whole certified liquid whole eggs remain too few to report with a steady undertone. Offerings are light to moderate. The wholesale price for frozen whole egg products is unchanged at $1.02 per pound as is the price for liquid whites at $0.66 per pound. The undertone is steady. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate for moderate to good demand. The pace of trading is moderate to active. Wholesale prices for whole dried egg was unchanged at $4.00 per pound as were prices for dried albumen at $4.90 per pound and dried yolk at $3.15 per pound. The undertone is steady. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate. Demand is moderate to good, best for yolk. Trading is moderate to mostly active.

According to NASS, the September monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage was down 6% from August and 33% below the 2020 level. Stocks of whole frozen egg decreased 9% from last month and remained well under last year's level at a 45% deficit. The share of whole egg stocks lost 1% to 39% of total frozen stocks. Stocks of frozen yolk declined 42%, 40% under last year's level. Exports of liquid yolk were up 20% in August which helped to reduce stocks. Stocks of frozen egg whites were down 11%, 28% under last year. Stocks of unclassified eggs were unchanged and 22% below 2020. The share of unclassified frozen stocks gained 3% to 50% of all frozen egg products in storage.

Cage-free commitments as of October 2021 remain about unchanged, requiring 66.7 billion cage-free eggs per year to meet 100% of needs from an approximate cage-free flock of 221 million hens (69% of the U.S. non-organic flock), indicating a shortage of 137.5 million hens from the current non-organic cage-free flock of 83.1 million hens. The average lay rate for non-organic cage-free production is currently estimated at 82.8%.

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Weekly Eggs Processed (30-dozen cases)

1.8

1.7

million 30-dozen cases

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

2019

2020

2021

A

S

O

N

D

total -0.2%

Eggs Processed Week-to-Week Change share whole whites yolks dried

-0.2% -1.0% -2.9% -0.4% -3.2%

inedible -6.5%

Central States Breaking Stock Eggs (cents per dozen)

90

75

60

45

30

15

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

week

2019

2020

2021

A

S

O

N

D

Producer Price Index Monthly Percent Change - Large Shell Eggs (WPU01710703) Bureau of Labor Statistics

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2021

2020

-14.7%

Sep

Oct

Nov

2019 Dec

Egg Markets Overview

Shell Eggs Market Price Comparisons

(as of November 12, 2021)

(National Index on a loose-egg basis, all other prices for cartoned eggs; LG White avg prices in cents per dozen)

sector markup

10%

10%

5%

13%

prior current

loose

carton

carton

carton

carton

72.1

79.0

87.0

91.0

103.0

national index producer

delivered delivered store retail on ad

warehouse

door

Producer, warehouse, & store door = MW; retail no sale NY market; retail on sale Nat'l Retail Feature; loose eggs include minimal

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Key Egg Markets Overview

12-Nov % Change

SHELL EGGS (Large, White, conventional in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices)

72.11

21%

New York, Cartoned (price to retailers)

120.00

17%

Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse)

87.00

0%

California, Cartoned, benchmark

157.00

10%

Recent History 5-Nov 29-Oct 22-Oct 15-Oct

59.54 103.00 87.00 143.00

56.61 102.00 87.00 143.00

57.79 102.00 92.00 153.00

61.21 106.00 98.00 163.00

8-Oct

65.68 112.00 107.00 174.00

National Retail Shell Egg (avg. ad price in dollars per dozen)

Conventional, Large, White

1.03

Cage-Free, Large, Brown/White

2.64

16% 0.89 1.41 0.99 1.16 1.32 9% 2.43 2.50 2.32 2.48 2.44

EGG PRODUCTS (f.o.b. dock prices; dollars per pound)

Central States Breaking Stock (dlvd prices per doz) 67.00

Whole Frozen Eggs

102.00

Whole Dried Eggs

4.00

Processed Share of Weekly Egg Production

31.1%

14% 0% 0% -0.2%

59.00 102.00

4.00 31.3%

59.00 102.00

3.85 31.7%

59.00 102.00

3.85 31.6%

62.00 102.00

3.85 31.8%

65.00 102.00

3.85 30.5%

SHELL EGG DEMAND INDICATOR (no units) Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics

-5.7

-1.9 -3.7 -5.2 -6.7 -5.5 -2.8

Key Shell Egg Markets Snapshot - 2021

(Large, White, Conventional Shell Eggs in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices) New York, Cartoned (price to retailers) Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse) 1 California, Cartoned, benchmark Central States Breaking Stock (delivered prices) 1 Whole Frozen Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Whole Dried Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Conventional Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Cage-free2 Shell Egg Demand Indicator 1 mostly high; 2 non-organic

12-Nov 72.1 120.0 87.0 157.0 67.0 102.0 4.00 1.03 2.64 -5.7

Change 21% 17% 0% 10% 14% 0% 0% 16% 9% -1.9

05-Nov 57.6 103.0 87.0 143.0 90.0 102.0 4.00 0.89 2.43 -3.7

2021 High 113.5 12-Mar 152.0 10-Mar 135.0 15-Mar 200.0 30-Aug 73.0 12-Mar 102.0 08-Oct 4.00 05-Nov 1.59 02-Apr 2.77 02-Jul 18.1 01-Jan

2021 Low 44.6 10-Jun 90.0 10-Jun 75.0 14-Jun 123.0 14-Jun 34.0 08-Jan 63.0 08-Jan 2.90 15-Jan 0.78 29-Jan 1.84 01-Jan -14.2 05-May

Egg Markets Overview

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